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The Beast from the East
13 January 2014 21:34:15
ECM op was as expected an outlier but overall mean has shifted a bit colder
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
squish
13 January 2014 21:35:14
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1441.gif 

JMA not far off at +144 , although not so good a couple of days later (although if ECM is on to something tonight then I would say JMA spotted it first with its 12z yesterday.....)
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Quantum
13 January 2014 21:35:22

A week ago today I posted with a suggestion of the block being modelled then breaking down and/ or disappearing altogether, before reappearing soon afterwards with more 'bite'.
Now it looks as though this may actually happen.

I suppose its easy to ridicule ECM in these situations but it's repeatedly trying to interpret some sort of long range signal.

Hopes of Verification at 240 is futile as we know, but trends are not.

One might be encouraged by the met office medium range text, which looks more supportive of cold than it did last week.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


And since the ECMWF has comfortably the highest verification stats for every time scale of every freely avalible parameter it should not be discounted. But we have seen similar trends abeilt significantly less extreme from all the models today with the exception of the NAVGEM and JMA. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Whether Idle
13 January 2014 21:43:08

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim


One of the coldest solutions - but not cold (hardly sub zero!) even in Holland.  Bit of a joke

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Quantum
13 January 2014 21:46:47


http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim


One of the coldest solutions - but not cold (hardly sub zero!) even in Holland.  Bit of a joke


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Yeh but thats not really the point. Once the scandi high establishes there is always a way to make a cold spell much more interesting. Like I say, one solution is for a trough to come out of the arctic, bisect the scandi HP and send half of it to greenland; basically exactly what happened in 2010. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
doctormog
13 January 2014 21:59:19

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim


One of the coldest solutions - but not cold (hardly sub zero!) even in Holland.  Bit of a joke

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 



Would that possibly be because the ECM op charts showed the colder air effecting areas of the UK rather than Holland? 😒

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif 

I wouldn't necessarily expect that to be overly cold in De Bilt in the Netherlands would you?
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Quantum
13 January 2014 22:03:12

18Z already looks better, jet stream is further south. 


Definately better by 108h, better heights in greenland too. 


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Chiltern Blizzard
13 January 2014 22:07:16


http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim


One of the coldest solutions - but not cold (hardly sub zero!) even in Holland.  Bit of a joke


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Maybe it's not an extremely cold run, but it's certainly a world away from the mild westerlies we've been having..... Having said that (and I know it's Holland), solutions with ice days are significantly more prevalent than mild solutions (only two runs have a single day over 10c). 


Andrew

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
roger63
13 January 2014 22:12:49

Step by Step. Hurdle 1 establishment of Scandi HP on 96h fax.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=96&carte=2000

Quantum
13 January 2014 22:14:29

Really think the atlantic will struggle to get through on this one. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Saint Snow
13 January 2014 22:21:07


Step by Step. Hurdle 1 establishment of Scandi HP on 96h fax.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=96&carte=2000


Originally Posted by: roger63 


 


Slowly, slowly, catchy Scandy?


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Nordic Snowman
13 January 2014 22:28:12

Close earlier on but not on this run:-


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1742.png

Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Whether Idle
13 January 2014 22:37:39

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=0


GFS powers the Atlantic through.


 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
nsrobins
13 January 2014 22:41:19



Or is it the froody trendsetter . . . .

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


A model hacked by Zaphod Beeblebrox himself perhaps, with one head looking at the overall and overwhelming trend of continued jet-driven mobility, and the other taking a quick sideways glance at the very remote possibility of something extraordinary?

Sorry Ben, been on the sauce . . .

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Chunky Pea
13 January 2014 22:50:23

ECM mean showing nothing more than a chilly maritime void in the outlook though with large-scale troughing being projected to continue over the Continent there is always a slimey slither of hope. A few more storms would be nice though while we wait. Anything but the dank cave-like conditions that are in the offing.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!Europe!192!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2014011312!!chart.gif

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Gooner
13 January 2014 22:58:34

Do people really think the moment a Scani gets established it would bring -10 air, colder air would start to move across


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Russwirral
13 January 2014 23:10:32
Stormchaser
13 January 2014 23:35:31

With UKMO more like ECM than GFS, showing heights rising to our NE on day 6 as troughing holds back west while 'older' energy  remains dug down to our SE, there does seem to be a real case for an easterly to develop based on tonight's output.


As ever, more runs are needed. The 18z op trends in the right direction for the first 7 days, which is enouraging.


 


The breakway cell of cut-off heights on the day 10 ECM chart, supported by an exploding LP over Canada, and with the amplified mid-Atlantic ridge looking to drive the secondary LP near Greenland SE or SSE, looks like an ultimate tease at this point in time, but you never know...

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Whether Idle
14 January 2014 07:09:54
Another dramatic switch by the ECM this morning (the latest in a growing list this winter), as it too powers through the Atlantic in FI today. The ECM really is the "willing fool's" model of choice this winter.
Though it must be said all output at that range needs to be handled with care.
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Sevendust
14 January 2014 07:19:24

Another dramatic switch by the ECM this morning (the latest in a growing list this winter), as it too powers through the Atlantic in FI today. The ECM really is the "willing fool's" model of choice this winter. Though it must be said all output at that range needs to be handled with care.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


The tendancy to build HP to the NE continues towards mid-range as shown on the T120 fax but that creates the unfortunate position of stalling LP's and fronts across the UK bringing yet more rain.


There is obvious potential in that evolution but no proper support for a cold outbreak at this stage

idj20
14 January 2014 07:25:52

Another dramatic switch by the ECM this morning (the latest in a growing list this winter), as it too powers through the Atlantic in FI today. The ECM really is the "willing fool's" model of choice this winter. Though it must be said all output at that range needs to be handled with care.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 



Especially when GFS is showing 51 mph westerly winds at around the 27th.   Thank heavens it's light years away in forecasting terms and I want/expect that ouput to be taken away in the next run.  

Wish I got into a less stressful hobby, like stamp collecting or flower pressing then I would be all the more wiser for it.
 

Folkestone Harbour. 
nsrobins
14 January 2014 07:52:38

ECM OP dragged back into line by the mighty GFS once again.

For now.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Charmhills
14 January 2014 07:52:53

Unsettled with close to average temps seems to sum up the runs this morning.


Noting overly cold in the output even into FI.


http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/


 

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
roger63
14 January 2014 08:14:32


ECM OP dragged back into line by the mighty GFS once again.

For now.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0


The might GFS flirts with an easterly at 144h but the ENS show its very much an outlier.A lot of churn  on  GEFS between 120 and 240 but as yet nothing  very convincing. 

soperman
14 January 2014 08:22:25

Not sure this is a classic GFS vs ECM.  This winter it seems ECM has wanted to model the strength and position of the jet far differently to the other models maybe excepting GEM on occasions. Last night the jet was progged to be much weaker than this morning on ECM 144.


I just wonder if the jet will run out of steam by the end of the month and possibly migrate South too and we all know what that means .  As many have said far too early to tell but could be good model watching for coldies at the end of the month.

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