Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday January 20th 2014.
All models show a similar sequence of events between now and the end of the weekend. Throughout this period several troughs will cross the UK from the NW bringing bands of rain which become slow moving in the East of the UK as they hit an European cold block. Behind the rain bands there will be a mix of clear or sunny intervals and showers which could be wintry on the hills. Some frost and/or fog can be expected between the rain bands as winds alternate between SW and NW while staying quite light.
GFS then shows a cold and windy first few days of next week with wintry showers on NW winds. By midweek a brief ridge of High pressure descends down over the UK with frost and fog patches overnight. The rest of the run then sees changeable conditions with occasional rain bearing troughs moving East over Britain with drier and brighter spells in between. Temperatures later in the run would probably return to near average in the North and rather above at times in the South.
The GFS Ensembles show a mean below the long term average tonight for much of the run and while not excessively low there is sufficiently low levels shown adequate enough to promote some higher ground snowfall at times with plenty of rain spread about over the run for all parts of the UK.
UKMO has another deep Low pressure area South of Iceland next Monday with a strengthening SW wind across the UK with rain sweeping East through the day.
GEM is very similar at Day 6 with a deep Low near Iceland firing strong Westerly winds and spells of rain followed by showers across the UK in temperatures close to average or a little below with little change in this overall setup even at Day 10.
NAVGEM has an intense depression moving slowly East then South across England early next week with gale or severe gale force winds with prolonged rain and showers, turning to snow on hills especially over the North. Temperatures will be slightly below average accentuated by the strength of the wind.
ECM has Low pressure areas slipping SE across the UK and North Sea from Iceland next week with areas of rain and strong winds and wintry showers in between. By Day 10 conditions across areas far away from the UK to the North and NE look like bringing a spell of wintry weather soon after the expiry of the run as synoptics look as though strong Northern blocking could be about to form.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts continue to show the pattern of High pressure strong to the SW and NE and Low to the NW and SE with the UK and North sea lying under a broad trough with largely unsettled and changeable conditions with rain at times and snow on hills most likely in 7-10 days with the UK still lying on the wrong side of the trough to promote UK wide cold.
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The Jet Stream Forecast shows the trajectory of flow over the Atlantic and to the South of the UK looking like persisting over the next 10-14 days made more complex by a strengthening of the Jet stream speed next week.
In Summary the weather is looking very confrontational tonight. On one hand we have a cold block over the Continent remaining in situ. On the other hand we have an active Atlantic fuelled even more next week by a strengthening Jet Stream. The result is a UK battleground where troughs slow and stall in their delivery of rain and showers. Later deep and parent depressions too are shown to slide SE up against the block and by the look of it the ECM operational offers something quite mouth watering beyond the end of it's run tonight. Model watching at the moment is very fascinating as we watch these two power horses of West vs East UK battle it out for supremacy over the coming weeks.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset