Good morning. Here is today's morning report on the NWP from their midnight release for today Tuesday January 21st 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models continue to paint a changeable period over all areas for the next 5-6 days. The current area of slack winds over the UK will give way to freshening SW winds ahead of a trough which crosses the UK from west to East today and tonight. Rain and hill snow in the North will move steadily East over the UK today and tonight replacing the morning frost and fog in the East. Clearer showery air in a WNW breeze will follow to the West tonight and the East too tomorrow with Wednesday and Thursday staying showery with some heavy and thundery ones with snow on hills likely in the North. By Friday a weak ridge dampens down the showers before a further band of rain crosses East through the day. Over the weekend another spell of NW winds with scattered showers seems likely ahead of a major depression early by the start of next week.
GFS shows this Low pressure becoming a major role player in next weeks weather with a major feature slipping South down over the UK next week with spells of windy weather with rain and showers for all with some wintriness at times over the hills of the North in particular. Changeable weather will continue thereafter with rather drier weather across the South for longer between the rain bands with temperatures remaining close to or a little below average in a mostly Westerly breeze.
The GFS Ensembles show a rather cold picture this morning mostly caused by a cold NW flow of winds from Low pressure areas sliding SE over the UK. There is unlikely to be any distinctly cold conditions but with precipitation continuing to feature through all parts of the output some of this could fall as snow at times over the hills and in the North.
UKMO today shows the weather next Monday with a deep Low pressure to the NW with strong Westerly winds carrying spells of rain then showers across the UK at the start of next week when it will feel somewhat cold.
GEM shows a very unsettled week with next week with Low pressure areas slipping SE down the East of the UK and the North Sea driving rather chilly West and NW winds with rain and showers falling as snow at times on hills and in the North.
NAVGEM also shows Low pressure slipping South over the UK with a wet and windy period with rain and showers and snow on hills through the middle of next week.
ECM is not dissimilar ending the run with a ridge of High pressure from the cold High to the NE over the UK giving rise to clearing rain and sleet away from the South after a very wet period earlier in the week and spreading dry and cold conditions SE across Britain with sharp frost and dense fog patches the likely features across Britain by Day 10.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Chart shows the stalemate pattern continuing in 10 days time with the pattern of High pressure to the NE coupled with a strong Azores anticyclone together with Low pressure to the NW and a broad trough down across the North Sea and on into Southern Europe. The net result weather wise meaning further rain and showers likely moving down from the NW and becoming slow moving just to the East of Britain with periods of showery weather likely in the West under a chilly NW flow at times.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
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The Jet Stream shows the flow maintaining it's basic pattern though with some strengthening of the flow for a time next week responsible for the deep depression many models predict slipping South over the UK next week. In the far reaches of the run the flow may weaken again but maintain a similar position so changes in any weather pattern look very slow from this morning's prediction.
In Summary the weather remains in an unsettled state as the stand off continues between a cold block over NE Europe and milder Atlantic winds bumping into it from the West. The net result still favours the milder air winning out as far as the UK is concerned though things do get perilously close for very cold weather to reach our shores at times. As it stands on the models today most predict the battleground likely to be over the North Sea keeping the UK on the milder side of a broad trough maintaining spells of rain followed by showery and chilly NW winds and showers with brief drier spells when fog and frost becomes possible. The one thing to note though despite what I have just said is that it would only take small shifts in specifics to increase the prospect for cold over the UK in a much more meaningful way..we will just have to see how the models continue the battle over the coming days.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset