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Gooner
22 January 2014 17:05:40

The UKMO 144 chart is of interest only to what it shows at 144, as I said this morning it looks downhill all the way from there. The MetO update today would confirm that view IMO.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


really??


Doesn't look that bad to me?


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012212/UW144-21.GIF?22-17


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012212/UW144-7.GIF?22-17


 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
22 January 2014 17:12:14

The UKMO 144 chart is of interest only to what it shows at 144, as I said this morning it looks downhill all the way from there. The MetO update today would confirm that view IMO.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


really??


Doesn't look that bad to me?


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012212/UW144-21.GIF?22-17


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012212/UW144-7.GIF?22-17


 

Originally Posted by: Arcus 



Looks like snow for almost everyone there great chart. Even if it doesn't last I'll take it.




Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
nsrobins
22 January 2014 17:19:43


The UKMO 144 chart is of interest only to what it shows at 144, as I said this morning it looks downhill all the way from there. The MetO update today would confirm that view IMO.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


really??


Doesn't look that bad to me?


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012212/UW144-21.GIF?22-17


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012212/UW144-7.GIF?22-17


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Looks like snow for almost everyone there great chart. Even if it doesn't last I'll take it.



Originally Posted by: Arcus 


I fear your optimism is unfounded.
There is still no indication anywhere of a general snow event in the next two weeks and I am happy to be corrected.
Any airmass from a W or NW quadrant will normally struggle to deliver lowland snow regardless of 850s because of the overriding effects of the maritime modification.
The MetO extended outlook has IMO been the ultimate guide so far this winter and it is correct in forecasting a continuation of the generally mobile theme - for now.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Rob K
22 January 2014 17:21:36
Yes the UKMO looks at least as good as the 00Z to me, with the high pressure extending across to the north of the British Isles and nudging into Greenland.

However that next LP looks set to take quite a northerly track, leaving the UK on the milder side again.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
doctormog
22 January 2014 17:22:52


The UKMO 144 chart is of interest only to what it shows at 144, as I said this morning it looks downhill all the way from there. The MetO update today would confirm that view IMO.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


really??


Doesn't look that bad to me?


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012212/UW144-21.GIF?22-17


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012212/UW144-7.GIF?22-17


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Looks like snow for almost everyone there great chart. Even if it doesn't last I'll take it.



Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I fear your optimism is unfounded.
There is still no indication anywhere of a general snow event in the next two weeks and I am happy to be corrected.
Any airmass from a W or NW quadrant will normally struggle to deliver lowland snow regardless of 850s because of the overriding effects of the maritime modification.
The MetO extended outlook has IMO been the ultimate guide so far this winter and it is correct in forecasting a continuation of the generally mobile theme - for now.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 



To be fair the winds are from an easterly quadrant here on that chart (at which time point the GFS op was one of the mildest ensemble members).

I do agree though that that 144 hr UKMO chart would not be a snow almost everywhere chart. It could be a snow for some in northern and central parts one though.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
22 January 2014 17:30:39
The best I can say about UKMO12z for SE England is that Three days Sunday to Tuesday have That Cold Wintry Low Pressure, and also it means before Tuesday seeing UKMO 144h, Many parts of the UK look set to see Stormy Sunday that eases a bit by Monday but Sunday Evening Night All of Monday looks good enough at 520-524 dam line and -4 or -5 T850 hPa Temps. That is potentially able to deliver Sleet and Snow to even 200 metres. And even lower levels could get Wintry if the temps. Get to 2 or 4 deg. c, if it Snows that will likely drop to 0 or 1 deg. C in London but I am ready to a accep A max of 7 on Sunday, low at night Sunday p.m. Of 2 or 1 deg. C, and Monday Max of 5 deg C! .

I even am accepting Low of 2 deg. C during the period with only Sleet at 3 deg C, but if there is Very Active Cold Fronts and Polar Returning Polar Maritime NW flow or WNW then through Wales or Cheshire Gap I might be able to Get Snow if very lucky and it is certainly possible in this set up 50/50 equal.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Maunder Minimum
22 January 2014 17:55:34



The UKMO 144 chart is of interest only to what it shows at 144, as I said this morning it looks downhill all the way from there. The MetO update today would confirm that view IMO.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


really??


Doesn't look that bad to me?


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012212/UW144-21.GIF?22-17


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012212/UW144-7.GIF?22-17


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Looks like snow for almost everyone there great chart. Even if it doesn't last I'll take it.



Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I fear your optimism is unfounded.
There is still no indication anywhere of a general snow event in the next two weeks and I am happy to be corrected.
Any airmass from a W or NW quadrant will normally struggle to deliver lowland snow regardless of 850s because of the overriding effects of the maritime modification.
The MetO extended outlook has IMO been the ultimate guide so far this winter and it is correct in forecasting a continuation of the generally mobile theme - for now.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


I have been a pessimist this winter. However, for Midlands northwards, that chart spells snow to me!


(Only if it actually turns out like that of course).


New world order coming.
Phil G
22 January 2014 18:27:14
HP to the South, East and North. The Low has nowhere to go, except here.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif 

Retron
22 January 2014 18:27:14
The 12z GEFS for down here are the wintriest set yet this "winter".

Here's hoping the ECM ensembles follow suit later!
Leysdown, north Kent
Gooner
22 January 2014 18:31:18




The UKMO 144 chart is of interest only to what it shows at 144, as I said this morning it looks downhill all the way from there. The MetO update today would confirm that view IMO.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


really??


Doesn't look that bad to me?


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012212/UW144-21.GIF?22-17


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012212/UW144-7.GIF?22-17


 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Looks like snow for almost everyone there great chart. Even if it doesn't last I'll take it.



Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I fear your optimism is unfounded.
There is still no indication anywhere of a general snow event in the next two weeks and I am happy to be corrected.
Any airmass from a W or NW quadrant will normally struggle to deliver lowland snow regardless of 850s because of the overriding effects of the maritime modification.
The MetO extended outlook has IMO been the ultimate guide so far this winter and it is correct in forecasting a continuation of the generally mobile theme - for now.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I have been a pessimist this winter. However, for Midlands northwards, that chart spells snow to me!


(Only if it actually turns out like that of course).


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Agreed MM hence my comment, I certainly don't think snow everywhere, but it isnt a bad chart


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
22 January 2014 18:33:03

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012212/ECH1-144.GIF?22-0


NEly to follow?


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Ally Pally Snowman
22 January 2014 18:42:11



The UKMO 144 chart is of interest only to what it shows at 144, as I said this morning it looks downhill all the way from there. The MetO update today would confirm that view IMO.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


really??


Doesn't look that bad to me?


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012212/UW144-21.GIF?22-17


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012212/UW144-7.GIF?22-17


 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Looks like snow for almost everyone there great chart. Even if it doesn't last I'll take it.



Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I fear your optimism is unfounded.
There is still no indication anywhere of a general snow event in the next two weeks and I am happy to be corrected.
Any airmass from a W or NW quadrant will normally struggle to deliver lowland snow regardless of 850s because of the overriding effects of the maritime modification.
The MetO extended outlook has IMO been the ultimate guide so far this winter and it is correct in forecasting a continuation of the generally mobile theme - for now.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I have been a pessimist this winter. However, for Midlands northwards, that chart spells snow to me!


(Only if it actually turns out like that of course).

Originally Posted by: Arcus 




Fair enough at that point but if we could see a156 chart I'm sure it would have the snow potential all the way to the south coast.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
22 January 2014 18:42:17

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012212/ECH1-168.GIF?22-0


A cold albeit brief NEly


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


SEMerc
22 January 2014 18:47:06

Yep, SW moves in after that, especially 'oop north'.

bledur
22 January 2014 18:49:26

17 pages in 3 days and no snow anywhere and not much hope of snow , the optimism here is admirableCool

doctormog
22 January 2014 18:49:37

Yep, SW moves in after that, especially 'oop north'.

Originally Posted by: SEMerc 



For at least 24hrs 😝
Rob K
22 January 2014 18:52:14


Yep, SW moves in after that, especially 'oop north'.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 



For at least 24hrs Flapper

Originally Posted by: SEMerc 


And then a WNW. It's good if you're up a Grampian perhaps but not much use for the rest of us.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
22 January 2014 18:53:26
The ECM is once again the mildest and crapest of the models.

The new king though is the mighty JMA.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=156&mode=1 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
22 January 2014 18:55:35


Yep, SW moves in after that, especially 'oop north'.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 



For at least 24hrs Flapper

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


And then a WNW. It's good if you're up a Grampian perhaps but not much use for the rest of us.

Originally Posted by: SEMerc 



Yes, but not overly mild any way you look at It. Must get a bit skiing in over the next few weeks.

The outlook still looks like being average and unsettled with cooler interludes, as it has done for a few days now. The trend is towards a cooler picture than has been seen most of the winter so far. Having said that, that does not necessarily mean wintry and it wouldn't need to be especially cold to be cooler than what we have had so far!
Essan
22 January 2014 18:59:29

Forget imaginary snow, it's rain that's going to be the main problem in the south!   But I do think we could see quite a bit of snow over hills in Scotland, as well as affecting higher level routes in the Pennines and Southern Uplands.

If - and a very big if - we see any snow at lower level in the south it'll be wet and transient.   And what's really needed is a dry spell!

Fairly typical British winter weather.


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Ally Pally Snowman
22 January 2014 19:10:22

Forget imaginary snow, it's rain that's going to be the main problem in the south!   But I do think we could see quite a bit of snow over hills in Scotland, as well as affecting higher level routes in the Pennines and Southern Uplands.

If - and a very big if - we see any snow at lower level in the south it'll be wet and transient.   And what's really needed is a dry spell!

Fairly typical British winter weather.

Originally Posted by: Essan 



Some of the output tonight would give even the south a decent fall of snow. And the rain although significant is nothing that unusual really. If the ukmo, JMA or GFS have it right many will see their first snow in the next 10 days.




Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Essan
22 January 2014 19:22:02


Forget imaginary snow, it's rain that's going to be the main problem in the south!   But I do think we could see quite a bit of snow over hills in Scotland, as well as affecting higher level routes in the Pennines and Southern Uplands.

If - and a very big if - we see any snow at lower level in the south it'll be wet and transient.   And what's really needed is a dry spell!

Fairly typical British winter weather.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Some of the output tonight would give even the south a decent fall of snow. And the rain although significant is nothing that unusual really. If the ukmo, JMA or GFS have it right many will see their first snow in the next 10 days.

Originally Posted by: Essan 




The rain isn't unusual, but given on-going flooding, it's not something we want!   Going to end up a very wet month.   And I dn't see anything in any of the models to suggest more that transient wet snow at low levels in southern England (and none at all here).


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
NDJF
22 January 2014 19:32:21





  1.  
     
     
    Just sharing - recent tweet from MVH. not without interest?
     
    12Z UKMO model still keen on dropping the low to the S and SE and introduces colder E'ly by Tue -




doctor snow
22 January 2014 19:45:43
Think we need to lose that very cold air over usa to stop feeding Atlantic low after low .boring now
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
22 January 2014 19:48:10
Upto This Saturday mainly Atlantic Low pressure and Strong winds and a number of Rain events but with one or two a Cold NW Flows added in.

During Sunday and Monday as well as all the way to Wednesday Further Cold NW flow low well below average day and night Temperatures but nights just at or a bit below Freezing, colder in Scotland Wales N England and Much of Ireland but these areas their East and NE sides less prone to heavy showers on Sunday and Monday, lots of Sleet Snow and some rain showers lower down, Still cooled with NE winds and Low pressure on Wednesday over Central and SE UK, Pressure higher in SW West and NW as well as the North by then.

A blocking Greenland, NE Europe Scandy High, Arctic High also in charts.

East Canada far SW Greenland and Newfoundland PV Low pressure, NE And North Canda Arctic High and NE Greenland High as well!!..

I like the location in the mid To far West SW North Atlantic High pressure, and Further Deep PV Low affect Greenland later next week and Send cold air SE it facing the Scandy High, means further rain plus sleet and hill snow- possibly lower ground widely as well.

Good Work done ECMWF, following GFS Model nicely!.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
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