Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday January 22nd 2014 and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models continue the basic pattern of Low pressure to the NW and High to the SW and NE with a broad troughing down the North Sea. Through the period between now and the start of next week a series of troughs cross East over the UK, each bringing spells of rain and/or showers, heavy and prolonged at times and falling as snow at times over Northern hills, especially tomorrow. Friday and again on Sunday look likely to be the most wet days with flooding issues again becoming possible in places in blustery winds at times. Temperatures will be close to average but there will be some chilly days, most likely tomorrow and a few mild ones most notably on Friday as the rain pushes over.
GFS then shows next week as a very windy and unsettled one with further showers or longer spells of rain in a blustery WNW wind at times. Late in the week a drier interlude with lighter winds and night frosts look likely as a ridge of High pressure is shown to sink South behind a departing depression to the SE. The end frames of the run show no change with the Atlantic bandwagon of Low pressure continuing delivering rain at times in a blustery Westerly wind and average temperatures.
The GFS Ensembles show little change to the rather chilly and unsettled weather but it looks unlikely to turn very cold with most members maintaining average temperatures just below the long term mean. Rainfall looks like continuing to be a feature for all throughout the period but the amounts of rain trend downward with time, especially towards the South and SE.
UKMO closes it's run this morning with a deep Low pressure area over the NW next Monday sliding SSE down over the UK maintaining a very unsettled start to next week with showers and longer spells of rain likely for all areas in temperatures a little on the cool side with no doubt some hill snow at times in the North.
GEM too takes this depression down over the UK from the NW early next week with attendant rain and showers continuing for all before pressure rises slowly from the NW with colder weather with scattered wintry showers looking likely for a time before dry weather develops under a ridge of High pressure over Southern Britain late in the run with frosts at night.
NAVGEM shows the Low drifting South over the UK early next week, moving it quite slowly away while bringing further rain and showers. On the rear side of the Low a period of cold Easterly winds are shown when cold air moves in and could turn some of the rain to sleet and snow before it exits away South at least from Scotland.
ECM today shows the Low moving South on Wednesday with rain and showers for all. It is quickly followed by a strong Westerly flow with Low pressure areas crossing East to the North with further rain at times as troughs move ESE across the UK in the flow with yet more rain.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts this morning once again favour Low pressure to be to the North of the UK in 9 and 10 days time with a trough down the North Sea. It looks that as a result of this little overall change in the pattern of rain at times will continue as systems bump into the block over the Continent with the UK remaining on the Western side of the trough and therefore temperatures remaining near to or a little below normal at times in West or NW winds.
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The Jet Stream Forecast today shows the flow strengthening at the weekend as it continues it's unrelenting path and trajectory over the Atlantic and down over the UK next week keeping the Atlantic Low pressure systems bumping into the block to the NE with some energy sliding SE and some NE and maintaining cold continental air at arms length across the other side of the North Sea.
In Summary this morning apart from some variations on a theme shown between various operational outputs this morning the basic pattern looks largely the same with a trend shown that doesn't offer much change to what we have now. All areas look at risk from further bouts of wind and rain as successive Low pressure areas cross the Atlantic and push their troughs across the UK before stalling them to the East. Most models do show a deep Low pressure area slipping South over the UK next week and some do show a brief flirtation with something rather colder on the rear side of the exiting depression but with the Atlantic still being driven by a strong West to East flow over the Atlantic on the Northern Flank of a strong Azores High it is only a matter of hours rather than days before milder Westerly winds and further rain return across the UK later next week.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset