Good morning folks. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from the big 5 weather models for today Friday January 24th 2014 lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show a distinctly disturbed pattern as we move through the next 5-6 days with Low pressure slipping slowly down over the UK early next week to lie close to Southern Britain by midweek. I can more definitively confirm too this morning that it is going to turn colder across all areas next week allowing some of the rain to turn to sleet and snow, principally but not exclusively towards the North and East. Much of the rain and snow will be showery though a prolonged spell of heavy rain is likely to sweep East on Sunday with strong Westerly winds early in the week swing easterly by midweek over all areas except Southernmost Britain.
GFS then shows a brief respite in the wind, rain and snow later next week with frost at night for a time before further unsettled and chilly weather with rain at times and snow on hills return from next weekend onward to the end of the run with further snow at times on Northern hills.
The GFS Ensembles this morning show a period of colder weather on the way if not desperately so. Nevertheless with unsettled conditions continuing throughout there is plenty more distressing levels of rain shown at times with certainly some snowfall over the higher ground in particular before a trend towards more average temperatures but still unsettled weather is shown towards the end of the run.
UKMO today shows a cold Easterly flow across the UK through the middle section of next week with Low pressure just to the South. Outbreaks of rain across the UK will fall as snow in places with some accumulation possible over the hills, more especially but not exclusively in the North and East.
GEM today shows increasingly cold and wintry conditions next week with further spells of rain turning to snow giving some accumulations of snow at times, even in the South as cold Easterly winds undercut advancing Low pressure towards the SW of the UK.
NAVGEM shows the colder weather midweek with rain and snow clearing away South to be followed by a return to milder westerly winds and rain at times by the end of next week.
ECM shows an altogether colder feed of air across the UK as the North Sea trough backs West. the net result is a colder spell to come with spells of rain still bothering in amount at times across the South and West. In addition with colder air making deeper inroads into the UK from both the East and NW at times the trend towards rain turning to snow in places next week is an increasing one even in the South.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show that the trough that has been shown down the North Sea, too far away from the UK to receive anything cold from the East pulled back West by 200 miles or so over the last day or so to lie down across the UK and on SE into Europe. This has increased the risk of cold weather developing widely across Northern and Eastern areas later next week with snow at times and with Low pressure areas expected to continue to slide SE down across the SW of the UK then some of this could extend to Southern and western areas too at times. The charts also indicate that there is unlikely to be much relief from flooding issues either with pressure values circa 1000mbs or less.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream is currently undergoing it's strengthening across the Atlantic, turning South to the West of the UK and then turning East across Europe. The flow diverted South to the West of the UK rather than over the UK (shown in recent days) is as a net result of colder conditions from Europe making more inroads into UK air space.
In Summary this morning I can easily declare this to be my most wintry report so far this Winter. With a shift West of the trough which has recently been lying down the North Sea recently looks like it is going to lie across the UK later next week. As a result the UK rather than the North Sea becomes the battleground for Low pressure areas bumping into the cold block to the East with cold air allowed to undercut from the East, all this following a Low pressure sinking South away from Southern Britain midweek with it's own mixture of rain and snow to get rid of. Snowfall will be most coherent across the North and East especially over the hills with rain rather than snow still most likely towards the SW. However, this remains unwelcome news as there remains little prospect of anything other than misery for quite a while yet for those flood stricken areas of my area in the SW with so much more precipitation of any form likely.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset