Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs from the NWP for today Saturday January 25th 2014 taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show Low pressure crossing the Atlantic sending a set of troughs quickly East across the UK later tonight and tomorrow with wind and rain sweeping East, heavy at times and giving rise to further flooding problems tomorrow. Through the afternoon and behind the cold front skies will brighten with squally showers of rain and hail likely with thunder in places and sleet or snow over the hills tomorrow night. through the early days of the week the parent Low responsible for the wind and wintry showers sinks South over the UK and away to the South by midweek with the outbreaks of rain and wintry showers clearing away South soon after midweek.
GFS then shows unsettled weather returning from the NW with Westerly winds with rain at times being the order of the day with snow at times over the hills of the North as temperatures only recover slowly from the rather cold levels that will be present this coming week. Late in the run the disturbed weather remains to be shown courtesy of deep Low pressure to the NW with strong SW winds and rain at times and average temperatures for early February.
The GFS Ensembles tonight show a short rather colder spell through the early and middle part of the coming week before temperatures recover to more average levels. The weather remains unsettled throughout with rain or snow at times through this week and strong winds and rain at times through week 2.
UKMO has a new Low pressure up to the NW of the UK next Friday with strengthening West or SW winds with rain sweeping East again over the UK preceded by snow for some places in the East for a time.
GEM also shows the Atlantic winding up again later next week as Low pressure moves in towards the NW of Britain with less cold and windy weather with rain at times and snow over the hills of the North in the showery spells between the rain bands.
NAVGEM keeps Low pressure areas slipping SE over the UK later next week maintaining rather chilly and unsettled weather over the UK with mostly NW winds and rain followed by wintry showers the most likely sequence of events.
ECM tonight also shows an altogether milder outlook from later next week as Low pressure begins to take a more Northerly route as the block over Europe collapses. The weather will remain no less wet with further spells of rain and very breezy conditions returning after a short drier interlude soon after midweek.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show a trend towards a much shallower circulation over the UK around Low pressure to the NW. With a bias towards a windflow from the South or SW this is at last a departure from a UK or North Sea based trough and I would suggest that with a switch of winds from a NW bias to that shown is indicative of a rather less cold and still unsettled pattern looking likely.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a strong flow across the Atlantic and Southern Europe. The general strength of the flow remains unchanged with the basic proximity of the flow remaining close to the UK throughout the period and occasionally to the South.
In Summary tonight the weather has stepped back from the predicted cold of yesterday to something much less wintry again with Low pressure off a volatile Atlantic continuing to pile drive Low pressure areas in towards the British Isles from the NW and west. With the block to the East now showing signs of collapse the door is opened for more progressive Atlantic wind and rain bands to cross over and away to the East of the UK with temperatures slowly recovering to average values later.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY