Model Output Discussion 26-1-14 >>>· Page 2

theweatheroutlook

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Gooner
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:21:05

#26

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012612/gfsnh-0-138.png?12

Maybe not

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Gooner
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:22:36

#27

Gah UKMO has backed off though,

Originally Posted by: Quantum

I dont think any model can be totally trusted at the moment with regards angles of attack from the west

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:22:50

#28

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1021
UKMO capitulates at 120 - lets in the milder Atlantic air, the 0z told are far more blocked story. Looks like the story of the winter continues - the Mighty Atlantic Battering Ram bashes down every barrier placed before it.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

It's not a mild flow though far from it.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1007

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Whether Idle
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:24:54

#29

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012612/gfsnh-0-138.png?12

Maybe not

Originally Posted by: Gooner

To my eyes the weather for next week is now pretty nailed on - colder up til Friday morning before windy and milder air moves in, with a lot more rain

Looking particlarly wet IMBY

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/accumulation-precipitations/132h.htm

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

Gooner
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:25:01

#30

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012612/gfsnh-0-144.png?12

GFS 144

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012612/UN144-21.GIF?26-17

UKMO 144

quite different

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Gooner
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:26:10

#31

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012612/gfsnh-0-138.png?12

Maybe not

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

To my eyes the weather for next week is now pretty nailed on - colder up til Friday morning before windy and milder air moves in, with a lot more rain

Looking particlarly wet IMBY

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/accumulation-precipitations/132h.htm

Originally Posted by: Gooner

looking at the 144 charts I have posted far from Nailed on in terms of if there will be a LP over us FI for sure

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:26:16

#32

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012612/gfsnh-0-138.png?12
Maybe not

Originally Posted by: Gooner

I have to say though it does look like this spell has gone Pete Tong again. What a shitemare of a winter

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Whether Idle
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:27:02

#33

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1021 UKMO capitulates at 120 - lets in the milder Atlantic air, the 0z told are far more blocked story. Looks like the story of the winter continues - the Mighty Atlantic Battering Ram bashes down every barrier placed before it.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

It's not a mild flow though far from it. Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

">http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1007

Agreed, not particularly mild, milder than most of this week, but not particularly cold either...

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

Gooner
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:28:36

#34

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1021 UKMO capitulates at 120 - lets in the milder Atlantic air, the 0z told are far more blocked story. Looks like the story of the winter continues - the Mighty Atlantic Battering Ram bashes down every barrier placed before it.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

It's not a mild flow though far from it. Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

">http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1007

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

Agreed, not particularly mild, milder than most of this week, but not particularly cold either...

It will fell chilly in the strong winds

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn14417.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Whether Idle
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:29:58

#35

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012612/gfsnh-0-138.png?12

Maybe not

Originally Posted by: Gooner

To my eyes the weather for next week is now pretty nailed on - colder up til Friday morning before windy and milder air moves in, with a lot more rain

Looking particlarly wet IMBY

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/accumulation-precipitations/132h.htm

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

looking at the 144 charts I have posted far from Nailed on in terms of if there will be a LP over us FI for sure

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Exact detail uncertain, the trend is there though - another Atlantic triumph. So be it, aint nothin we can do...

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

some faraway beach
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:31:42

#36

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1021

Hmmm, UKMO goes slack at 96 with AH nudging in...

Cold in the NE though

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1007

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

This isn't aimed at you personally, as a lot of posters do it, but by AH do you mean Atlantic High, Azores High or Arctic High?Looking at that chart all three are plausibleto me. Maybe you do mean all three, or maybe I simply haven't the expertise to recognize something which should be obvious.

But if people could type, say, AtH, AzH or ArcH, I'd be really grateful.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

Matty H
Advanced Member Topic Starter

26 January 2014 16:32:44

#37

Ties in with Fergusson's earlier comments.

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny
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The Beast from the East
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:35:16

#38

GEM also poor

Sad inevitability about all this

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

Phil G
Guest

26 January 2014 16:35:22

#39

Jet further south on this run
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17415.png

Rob K
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:35:49

#40

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1021 UKMO capitulates at 120 - lets in the milder Atlantic air, the 0z told are far more blocked story. Looks like the story of the winter continues - the Mighty Atlantic Battering Ram bashes down every barrier placed before it.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

It's not a mild flow though far from it. [url=http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1007

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

]http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1007

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

[/url]
Agreed, not particularly mild, milder than most of this week, but not particularly cold either...

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

It will fell chilly in the strong winds
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn14417.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

5C is pointless though. If it is going to be 5C, wet and windy then frankly I'd rather have 13C .

The hints of promise for wintry weather that the models had shown have pretty much 100% evaporated. I'll look out for a few flakes of wet snow tonight but apart from that just bring on some mild sunshine.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Gooner
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:36:16

#41

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1021

Hmmm, UKMO goes slack at 96 with AH nudging in...

Cold in the NE though

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1007

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach

But if people could type, say, AtH, AzH or ArcH, I'd be really grateful.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

wouldn't the charts be self explanatory? Best view though is the N Hemisphere link

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

doctormog
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:38:11

#42

No sign of either settled or mild weather in the 12z output so far today.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Ally Pally Snowman
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:41:06

#43

No sign of either settled or mild weather in the 12z output so far today.

Originally Posted by: doctormog

Yes the worst of all outcomes very wet and cold but not cold enough. Winter may well begin and end at 3am tonight

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

Sevendust
Guest

26 January 2014 16:42:16

#44

I find your lack of faith in the NAVGEM disturbing.

Originally Posted by: Quantum

some faraway beach
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:42:58

#45

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1021

Hmmm, UKMO goes slack at 96 with AH nudging in...

Cold in the NE though

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1007

Originally Posted by: Gooner

But if people could type, say, AtH, AzH or ArcH, I'd be really grateful.

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach

wouldn't the charts be self explanatory? Best view though is the N Hemisphere link

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

Lack of expertise it is then.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.

Gooner
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:44:04

#46

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1021

Hmmm, UKMO goes slack at 96 with AH nudging in...

Cold in the NE though

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1007

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach

But if people could type, say, AtH, AzH or ArcH, I'd be really grateful.

Originally Posted by: Gooner

wouldn't the charts be self explanatory? Best view though is the N Hemisphere link

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach

Lack of expertise it is then.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

Apologies, point taken

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Gooner
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:46:36

#47

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012612/gfsnh-10-276.png?12

11 days the warming gets it's act together .........................running out of straws

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L

Quantum
Advanced Member

26 January 2014 16:48:16

#48

GEM goes from the least progressive to the most progressive, very different at 102h

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.