Good morning everyone. Here is the report from the midnight outputs of the NWP for today Monday January 27th 2014.
All models illustrate Low pressure close to NW Scotland filling slowly and moving slowly South through the next 72 hours before clearing Southern Britain on Thursday. Through this period there will be further showers, heavy at times with thunder, hail, sleet and snow all possible, the latter mostly over the hills. By Thursday winds will of switched briefly Easterly with a cold raw feed making it's way across Britain before the trend is reversed by Friday as a return of the Atlantic influence begins to take shape.
GFS shows very unsettled weather through the rest of its run with showers and longer spells of rain as new Low pressure areas spread East or NE across the UK with temperatures recovering to closer the average though still they could fall just below average at times.
The GFS Ensembles show this morning that the predicted cold snap for this week is quickly evaporating into non event with strong support for a warm up next week to temperatures above average as winds switch to the SW and bring milder air up across the UK from more Southerly latitudes in the Atlantic. With low pressure in close attendance though amounts of rain will still be quite large for many.
UKMO closes it's run today with Low pressure South of Iceland and a broad WSW flow across the UK with spells of rain and showers crossing West to East across the nation regularly in average temperatures but brisk and occasionally strong winds.
GEM too brings Low pressure back across the Atlantic towards NW Britain giving rise to further spells of rain and showers, some heavy in a blustery SW wind and average temperatures.
NAVGEM too follows the course of action from the other output with milder Atlantic winds around Low pressure South of Iceland maintaining the sometimes wet and windy weather.
ECM has Low pressure marginally further North next weekend with most of the heavier rain towards the NW but still some for the South too at times. With winds becoming SW with time and less strong less cold conditions will gradually feed across the UK from the West.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show a bias towards Low pressure being positioned South of Iceland with all of the UK under a SW flow around a Low pressure of one type or another to the NW. This means I'm afraid the likelihood of the operational's less wet conditions for the South is not well supported and the prospect of quite a bit of rain from this mean set of charts remains this morning.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Jet Stream shows the flow running ESE to the South of the UK before running East over Southern Europe. It's trend is to change orientation towards more of a ENE movement across the UK and away to more central Europe later.
In Summary this morning it's more of the same I'm afraid as the Atlantic appears guaranteed now to make a complete comeback across the UK by the weekend. Models do diversify in specifics within this context but the message remains that the UK will continue to receive spells of rain and showers moving East into the UK quite regularly with only brief quieter and drier periods in between. After the whiff of a cold snap this week temperatures are shown to rise everywhere back to average levels or somewhat above in the South should GFS verify.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset