As always, we'll see what happens. From what I recall of reading various model threads over the last few weeks, the ECM ensembles have done more u-turns than politicians do, indicating a colder spell in one run and then milder again the next, then colder again and so on. ECM hasn't been at it's best recently IMO; it has been as guilty of leading us up the garden path when it comes to suggesting possible colder weather as any other model has.

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Good old pub run!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/156h.htm 

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-12c over the snowfields of Scotland
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.png 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012618/gfsnh-10-288.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012618/gfsnh-10-348.png?18

again the warming is a feature

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ECM and GFS differ so enormously even at just 96 hours that it beggars belief...

It's strange how GFS is now happily trundling along the old path of slowly bringing in less energy phasing, more trough disruption and generally colder setups, yet at the same time ECM and UKMO have shfited, or in the latter case lept, in the direction of more energy phasing and less trough disruption!

 

The 00z runs will be a big deal, as usually, if the models disagree this much, then the GFS 18z is either the last run before an abrupt shift or it turns out to be leading the way after all...

...shame both options are rather wet, though. ECM actually offers the driest solution in the mid-term, before it too sets up a seriously wet pattern by day 10.

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OT post of The Day.

It comes to be that the next 24 to 48 hr UKMETO BBC Weather Invent data rainfall suggests Showers West to East moving less chance to hit London Tonight (Sleety), and A few affect on Monday daytime and the NW to SE flow Showers by This Next Night and to Tuesday Midday(ish) and those quite likely to affect London.

This should be in Current Conditions but it is related to Forecasts and Modelling, maybe the GFS 18z is been on a teaser Tonight for Thursday and Friday this week?.

I am checking Models regularly but I took a morning break from it earlier on Sunday- I relaxed it.

Maybe trick will work.

You never know I confess that I see Forecaster at BBC Met suggesting London will hit 8 deg. C Max, today Monday- well if we stay colder than that (mean London)
Then my next request is A WNW flow- help drive SE showers to London From Wales!.

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Well there you go, pretty much unanimous agreement this morning that it is back to Atlantic dominated weather from Sunday with the chance of the odd sleet or snow shower for the lucky few before then! I know that it's all par for the course but you just can't help feeling mugged when you waste a whole two weeks watching the models develop something potentially very interesting only to end up with nothing!

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The Manchester GFS 0z ensembles make grim reading if you want a decent cold or even just a dry spell. No sign of any. If anything the 2m temperatures get milder as we move through February.

You begin to wonder just how wet this winter is going to turn out, it has already been very wet without even February contributing anything

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Morning all. Well it's now looking like the Atlantic is favourite to take grip of our weather from early next week. At least it should dry out somewhat in the meantime but snow will be at a premium. The easterly flow could be quite a cloudy affair meaning frost too will be at a premium.
Looking further ahead some quite wet and windy weather could be on the cards for the start of February, though this is just conjecture at this unreliable time frame.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.png 

15°C!






😊 oh, there's a minus sign there too?

😝

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LOL not bad over the Scottish snowfields. I am sure you will get away with a -14 nearer the coast! LOL
It's not looking epic though is it Doc? Personally I am no fan of cold but you can see how some folks are disappointed with the latest data.

No, a few days ago the ECM ensembles were showing a string of cold days (ie 4C or lower maxima down here). Over the weekend that's been whittled down to just one day.

It's the second time this winter the ECM ensembles have done an about-turn - in both cases a cold spell was shown for several runs in a row, only for it to be significantly watered down nearer the time.

It's frustrating from a coldie's point of view, but the weather will do what it will whether we want it to or not. At least I've seen sleet twice (once at home and once yesterday afternoon at the wolf centre) so it won't go down as an entirely snowless winter for me!

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13217.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15617.png

Next weekend is still cold

 

 

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Well looks like most people will be very happy with this morning's output:  no snow, not even a frost in this neck of the woods, and signs of an early spring.  Only downside is more rain with few dry days on the horizon




I said most people, not you

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LOL 😁

To be honest, I'm not fussed and would prefer a few bright sunny days but that too looks unlikely (once again).

As for the -15°C, it's nice to see it on the charts but there's a good chance that's the only place we'll see it!

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A bracing minus 12C outside in Kiev's euromaidan on Saturday afternoon.

Looking at e.g. ECM at 48 hrs, you'd be a little hopeful of eventually tapping into that. The Azores high poking up to try and stall the Newfoundland low, which as a conseqence is sending Atlantic air up into Greenland, while our low pressure is undercutting a green-coloured Scandinavian high.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=48&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

It's all just a bit too far east, though, and the model sends that Newfoundland low on its familiar journey across the Atlantic to visit the British Isles.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

But that's 5 days into the future. Thankfully 5-day charts aren't exactly set in stone, so I for one will be back at teatime to see whether the 12z models can in fact find a way to erect a barrier to the Atlantic at 72 hrs.

 

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Yawn. GFS still differing from ECM and UKMO in terms of how the energy phases and hence whether it drives ESE or not.

UKMO has adjusted to be between ECM and GFS, though; it's piling the energy eastward at 144h rather than lifting the trough out N like ECM does.

ECM then has the Atlantic hitting a wall from day 6, and we end up with a mix of dry, chilly days with a hint of continental air and rather soggy days as frontal systems become slow moving or stall across the UK - some transient frontal snow possible in places as the frotns engage with the cold surface air.

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Good morning everyone. Here is the report from the midnight outputs of the NWP for today Monday January 27th 2014.

All models illustrate Low pressure close to NW Scotland filling slowly and moving slowly South through the next 72 hours before clearing Southern Britain on Thursday. Through this period there will be further showers, heavy at times with thunder, hail, sleet and snow all possible, the latter mostly over the hills. By Thursday winds will of switched briefly Easterly with a cold raw feed making it's way across Britain before the trend is reversed by Friday as a return of the Atlantic influence begins to take shape.

GFS shows very unsettled weather through the rest of its run with showers and longer spells of rain as new Low pressure areas spread East or NE across the UK with temperatures recovering to closer the average though still they could fall just below average at times.

The GFS Ensembles show this morning that the predicted cold snap for this week is quickly evaporating into  non event with strong support for a warm up next week to temperatures above average as winds switch to the SW and bring milder air up across the UK from more Southerly latitudes in the Atlantic. With low pressure in close attendance though amounts of rain will still be quite large for many.

UKMO closes it's run today with Low pressure South of Iceland and a broad WSW flow across the UK with spells of rain and showers crossing West to East across the nation regularly in average temperatures but brisk and occasionally strong winds.

GEM too brings Low pressure back across the Atlantic towards NW Britain giving rise to further spells of rain and showers, some heavy in a blustery SW wind and average temperatures.

NAVGEM too follows the course of action from the other output with milder Atlantic winds around Low pressure South of Iceland maintaining the sometimes wet and windy weather.

ECM has Low pressure marginally further North next weekend with most of the heavier rain towards the NW but still some for the South too at times. With winds becoming SW with time and less strong less cold conditions will gradually feed across the UK from the West.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show a bias towards Low pressure being positioned South of Iceland with all of the UK under a SW flow around a Low pressure of one type or another to the NW. This means I'm afraid the likelihood of the operational's less wet conditions for the South is not well supported and the prospect of quite a bit of rain from this mean set of charts remains this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Jet Stream shows the flow running ESE to the South of the UK before running East over Southern Europe. It's trend is to change orientation towards more of a ENE movement across the UK and away to more central Europe later.

In Summary this morning it's more of the same I'm afraid as the Atlantic appears guaranteed now to make a complete comeback across the UK by the weekend. Models do diversify in specifics within this context but the message remains that the UK will continue to receive spells of rain and showers moving East into the UK quite regularly with only brief quieter and drier periods in between. After the whiff of a cold snap this week temperatures are shown to rise everywhere back to average levels or somewhat above in the South should GFS verify.

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Oh please, kick a man when he's down why dont you!

 

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This wet, mild weather is no good for man nor Beast ;-)
Agriculture needs several days of hard frost to kill pests and bugs and to prepare the ground for the coming sowing season. Besides which, if plants are duped into an early spring, delicate buds can be destroyed by late frosts.

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Is it just me or have the models been especially unreliable this winter?

You often hear the old chestnut "models do much better in Atlantic-dominated zonal patterns" and yet here we are in one of the wettest most Atlantic-driven winters for years and the models have been all over the place.

Whereas in the run-up to Nov/Dec 2010 (an extremely blocked pattern) the models latched onto the pattern from two weeks out and brought it almost seamlessly through to T zero.

So, time to put another model myth to bed? 🙂

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Very mixed messages this morning:

BBC website preparing us for a big freeze

Nina confirming high pressure and much colder by the weekend   

Computers say NO !!!     

No I think they have been very poor, perhaps the strength of the jet has caused problems for them and the persistence of the troughs as it's so unusual? As for Winter, well looks likes two days at the end of the week is it so will wait for a Summer like April followed by a return to the Summers of old - get the boats ready!

Perhaps the website has employed an ex daily express employee? No sign of that from their main site.

 

Hi Rob

 

To be fair though Rob I cannot remember any period this winter (sorry, extended Autumn) when we have had cross-model agreement of a cold outbreak.  For me the charts have mainly signalled a strong jet and wet and windy conditions and that is what we have had.