Remove ads from site

David M Porter
27 January 2014 10:05:34


Is it just me or have the models been especially unreliable this winter?

You often hear the old chestnut "models do much better in Atlantic-dominated zonal patterns" and yet here we are in one of the wettest most Atlantic-driven winters for years and the models have been all over the place.

Whereas in the run-up to Nov/Dec 2010 (an extremely blocked pattern) the models latched onto the pattern from two weeks out and brought it almost seamlessly through to T zero.

So, time to put another model myth to bed? :)

Originally Posted by: soperman 


 


Hi Rob


 


To be fair though Rob I cannot remember any period this winter (sorry, extended Autumn) when we have had cross-model agreement of a cold outbreak.  For me the charts have mainly signalled a strong jet and wet and windy conditions and that is what we have had.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes, that is my recollection of the models as well this winter. There have only ever been mere "hints" from time to time of a colder spell, but nothing that was consistent and had cross-model support.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
soperman
27 January 2014 10:06:00



Very mixed messages this morning:


BBC website preparing us for a big freeze


Nina confirming high pressure and much colder by the weekend   


Computers say NO !!!     


Originally Posted by: Scandy 1050 MB 


Perhaps the website has employed an ex daily express employee? No sign of that from their main site.


Originally Posted by: soperman 


Hi Scandy


 


It states it as the second item on the main BBC News website under the banner UK braced for Ice and More Flooding then the first line ''Britain prepares for a big freeze as temeratures plummet''  


My first thought was that this is sensationalist but then maybe the preparedness is fair given that temperatures have been so mild.


All my mates will be asking about how much snow we are going to get in the big freeze!!!


 

Russwirral
27 January 2014 10:06:43



Very mixed messages this morning:


BBC website preparing us for a big freeze


Nina confirming high pressure and much colder by the weekend   


Computers say NO !!!     


Originally Posted by: Scandy 1050 MB 


Perhaps the website has employed an ex daily express employee? No sign of that from their main site.


Originally Posted by: soperman 


 


I think the BBeb have mentioned colder weather in their forecast - infact i saw a single Snowflake in a cloud being forecast for Betws-y-coed for Thursday... but nothing severe. 


idj20
27 January 2014 10:33:56

It does feel like the rest of the world hates the UK when we are surrounded by wind and rain and yet it looks all calm and peaceful everywhere else. There is a certain element of "what have we done to deserve this?".

This Saturday's output should show what I mean: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201401270600&VAR=uv10&HH=120&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

I've long since thrown in the towel regarding looking for any proper wintry weather but I'm now yearning for that first bit of proper spring-like warmth as the sun creeps that littlle bit higher above the horizon with each passing day. Yes, I know, it's still only coming up to February but I remember how the sun used to be very effective while in a greenhouse at around St Valentine's day onwards.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Rob K
27 January 2014 10:56:30

Is it just me or have the models been especially unreliable this winter?

You often hear the old chestnut "models do much better in Atlantic-dominated zonal patterns" and yet here we are in one of the wettest most Atlantic-driven winters for years and the models have been all over the place.

Whereas in the run-up to Nov/Dec 2010 (an extremely blocked pattern) the models latched onto the pattern from two weeks out and brought it almost seamlessly through to T zero.

So, time to put another model myth to bed? :)

Originally Posted by: soperman 


 


Hi Rob


 


To be fair though Rob I cannot remember any period this winter (sorry, extended Autumn) when we have had cross-model agreement of a cold outbreak.  For me the charts have mainly signalled a strong jet and wet and windy conditions and that is what we have had.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



No there has been no consistency on a cold spell but that is what I meant really. From run to run there has been massive changes, more so than usual or so it seems.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Charmhills
27 January 2014 10:59:49

The models are looking bleak if your looking for cold/wintry weather.


Wet and windy by late Friday for most.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Maunder Minimum
27 January 2014 11:06:18


It does feel like the rest of the world hates the UK when we are surrounded by wind and rain and yet it looks all calm and peaceful everywhere else. There is a certain element of "what have we done to deserve this?".

This Saturday's output should show what I mean: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201401270600&VAR=uv10&HH=120&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

I've long since thrown in the towel regarding looking for any proper wintry weather but I'm now yearning for that first bit of proper spring-like warmth as the sun creeps that littlle bit higher above the horizon with each passing day. Yes, I know, it's still only coming up to February but I remember how the sun used to be very effective while in a greenhouse at around St Valentine's day onwards.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


My daughter has just emailed me from Berlin to say they are enjoying a blizzard there.


The UK is in the worst possible position for decent weather I'm afraid.


New world order coming.
colin46
27 January 2014 11:15:36

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1976/Rrea00119760827.gif


shine on you crazy diamond
192.104 m / 630.262 feet ASL
idj20
27 January 2014 11:31:14


 And guess what happened very shortly after that?


Folkestone Harbour. 
Arcus
27 January 2014 11:44:10



 And guess what happened very shortly after that?


Originally Posted by: colin46 


Elton John and Kiki Dee got to number 1 with "Don't Go Breaking My Heart"?


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Sevendust
27 January 2014 12:35:09


It does feel like the rest of the world hates the UK when we are surrounded by wind and rain and yet it looks all calm and peaceful everywhere else. There is a certain element of "what have we done to deserve this?".

This Saturday's output should show what I mean: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201401270600&VAR=uv10&HH=120&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

I've long since thrown in the towel regarding looking for any proper wintry weather but I'm now yearning for that first bit of proper spring-like warmth as the sun creeps that littlle bit higher above the horizon with each passing day. Yes, I know, it's still only coming up to February but I remember how the sun used to be very effective while in a greenhouse at around St Valentine's day onwards.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


I think you've forgotten to factor in gods hatred of pro-gay legislation(courtesy UKIP)


Seriously though, despite a bit of ramping recently, there has never been cross-model agreement on cold weather this winter.


The GFS ensembles have occasionally thrown in some very cold runs and brief cold clustering but its never been consistent.


Interestingly, the BBC online forecast for last night consistently showed snow for over the last couple of days but then dropped that idea as we reached reality. So even at that short range theres little reliablity

The Beast from the East
27 January 2014 13:57:19

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html


Rock solid agreement now for a return to rubbish. We have even lost the cold zonality which could have been a consolation. I expected the pete tong moment, but this is pretty spectacular even by our standards


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
27 January 2014 14:00:08

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012706/gfsnh-10-6.png?6


as we are now ....high up blue being the dominant player


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012706/gfsnh-10-348.png?6


Further down the line, blues are sent packing


 


 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
27 January 2014 14:39:11


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012706/gfsnh-10-6.png?6


as we are now ....high up blue being the dominant player


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012706/gfsnh-10-348.png?6


Further down the line, blues are sent packing


 


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Thatl take until march to affect us though. In the meantime we have ensemble runs that are struggling to even have runs below -5!


I thought 2011/2012 was bad, at least I saw a day or two of snow. 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Maunder Minimum
27 January 2014 14:56:31



http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012706/gfsnh-10-6.png?6


as we are now ....high up blue being the dominant player


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012706/gfsnh-10-348.png?6


Further down the line, blues are sent packing


 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Thatl take until march to affect us though. In the meantime we have ensemble runs that are struggling to even have runs below -5!


I thought 2011/2012 was bad, at least I saw a day or two of snow. 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


It is always going to be jam tomorrow, this winter. Looking at FI charts and strat. charts is pointless. Everything has conspired to make this winter memorable for all the wrong reasons - if there is one consolation, 2014-15 has to be better than this!


New world order coming.
colin46
27 January 2014 15:09:08




http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012706/gfsnh-10-6.png?6


as we are now ....high up blue being the dominant player


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012706/gfsnh-10-348.png?6


Further down the line, blues are sent packing


 


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Thatl take until march to affect us though. In the meantime we have ensemble runs that are struggling to even have runs below -5!


I thought 2011/2012 was bad, at least I saw a day or two of snow. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It is always going to be jam tomorrow, this winter. Looking at FI charts and strat. charts is pointless. Everything has conspired to make this winter memorable for all the wrong reasons - if there is one consolation, 2014-15 has to be better than this!


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Don't bank on it


shine on you crazy diamond
192.104 m / 630.262 feet ASL
soperman
27 January 2014 15:35:46


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012706/gfsnh-10-6.png?6


as we are now ....high up blue being the dominant player


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012706/gfsnh-10-348.png?6


Further down the line, blues are sent packing


  


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Let's hope Saints aren't sent packing on Tuesday night??


It is interesting that we have only really factored in the trop and SSW over the last couple of years on this forum. It was rarely mentioned before that.


I also think this year is an anomoly in our cooling trend.  The strong Easterly block has been a constant, moving a little westwards into Scandi on occasions, so cold has never been that far away at times. The single scuppering factor has been the strong jet fuelled by the polar vortex moving way South in the US. 


Putting it another way, the favourites Arsenal are 2-0 up with 15 minutes to go but............................................

JACKO4EVER
27 January 2014 15:57:02



http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012706/gfsnh-10-6.png?6


as we are now ....high up blue being the dominant player


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014012706/gfsnh-10-348.png?6


Further down the line, blues are sent packing


  


Originally Posted by: soperman 


Let's hope Saints aren't sent packing on Tuesday night??


It is interesting that we have only really factored in the trop and SSW over the last couple of years on this forum. It was rarely mentioned before that.


I also think this year is an anomoly in our cooling trend.  The strong Easterly block has been a constant, moving a little westwards into Scandi on occasions, so cold has never been that far away at times. The single scuppering factor has been the strong jet fuelled by the polar vortex moving way South in the US. 


Putting it another way, the favourites Arsenal are 2-0 up with 15 minutes to go but............................................


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


........ three freak own goals by Vermaelen in the last minute of full time hand a shock victory to the Saints. 



In other words.......... dream on.


Nah, your right. The upstream signals have been so constant and aggressive they have scuppered any chance of cold. The worrying thing is that winter rainfall could reach unprecedented levels in our built up concrete wonderland that flooding will blight more people before things get any better.

The Beast from the East
27 January 2014 16:41:14

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012712/UW144-7.GIF?27-17


At least it wont be mild


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Snowjoke
27 January 2014 16:48:36


It does feel like the rest of the world hates the UK when we are surrounded by wind and rain and yet it looks all calm and peaceful everywhere else. There is a certain element of "what have we done to deserve this?".

This Saturday's output should show what I mean: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201401270600&VAR=uv10&HH=120&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

I've long since thrown in the towel regarding looking for any proper wintry weather but I'm now yearning for that first bit of proper spring-like warmth as the sun creeps that littlle bit higher above the horizon with each passing day. Yes, I know, it's still only coming up to February but I remember how the sun used to be very effective while in a greenhouse at around St Valentine's day onwards.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


 


To be fair, I have just back back from a house hunting trip in the Dordogne in south west France and the winter has been shocking down there too! Very mild but also very wet. There were signs of flooding everywhere and the ground was saturated...much like the UK!


It's been record breakingly cold over the USA so maybe that has been driving an active Atlantic, along with a misplaced Jetstream. However I do share your feelings. I often think the UK would be better if we had an enormous polytunnel covering these rain lashed islands!!


 

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
27 January 2014 16:54:08
The GFS well oh do we really say for it's West to SW winds, right upto T156h, with only short length duration NW on the departing parts of low Pressure enter UK from NW Atlantic, the. Azores High ridge, still cold near average by Sunday but by Monday rd Feb, turning winds WSW and next NW Atlantic Low approaches UK later on that Monday, with mild air ahead and cold NW winds behind.

The next 48-72 hours largely average or slightly above average temperatures and scattered moderate or heavy rain or sleet on hills showers, winds Cyclonic not of much importance as they moderate to fresh speeds.

A colder period Wednesday late p.m., and on Thursday, but overcast and dry weather.

Friday turns West SW flow and New NW Atlantic cross the UK Low Pressure system turn less cold with heavy rain in the South and SE with NW winds on Saturday and from Friday night, cold weather with rain and some sleet or snow in the West and North and Central UK.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Charmhills
27 January 2014 16:54:53

The Atlantic is on cruse control then judging from the 12z.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
doctormog
27 January 2014 17:03:55
The output may be rubbish but it is still more wintry than previously this winter and below average temperature wise generally. What it is not is cold and wintry for a prolonged period of time. The chance of wintry precipitation still exists for quite a few locations on Thursday and Friday. Needless to say many of the mountains in Scotland are getting buried - continuing good news for the ski season.
Russwirral
27 January 2014 17:09:40
If anything this winter goes to show how poor Long range forecasts can be. Im not aware of any that have forecast the amount of rain we have seen, which in hindsight with the depth of cold in the US and the strength of the Jet as a consequence - you may have seen some idea in the forecasts issued.
nouska
27 January 2014 17:35:02



It does feel like the rest of the world hates the UK when we are surrounded by wind and rain and yet it looks all calm and peaceful everywhere else. There is a certain element of "what have we done to deserve this?".

This Saturday's output should show what I mean: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201401270600&VAR=uv10&HH=120&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

I've long since thrown in the towel regarding looking for any proper wintry weather but I'm now yearning for that first bit of proper spring-like warmth as the sun creeps that littlle bit higher above the horizon with each passing day. Yes, I know, it's still only coming up to February but I remember how the sun used to be very effective while in a greenhouse at around St Valentine's day onwards.


Originally Posted by: Snowjoke 


 


To be fair, I have just back back from a house hunting trip in the Dordogne in south west France and the winter has been shocking down there too! Very mild but also very wet. There were signs of flooding everywhere and the ground was saturated...much like the UK!


It's been record breakingly cold over the USA so maybe that has been driving an active Atlantic, along with a misplaced Jetstream. However I do share your feelings. I often think the UK would be better if we had an enormous polytunnel covering these rain lashed islands!!


 


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Done the reverse here; flying into a very wet Bergerac last Saturday after spending most of January in soggy Surrey.


If this mid range modelling is in any way accurate, the situation is going to worsen in both locations.


http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4790/gfs-0-372_lzg1.png

Users browsing this topic

    Remove ads from site

    Ads