Hi everyone. Here is the evening report on the latest 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Monday January 27th 2014.
All models show a slowly filling depression slipping slowly SSE over the UK and down over France by Thursday having largely filled up by then. Over the next 48 hours further very showery weather persists over the UK with showers or longer spells of rain with hail at times and sleet and snow over the high hills of the North. Winds will be brisk from a West or SW point in the South then an easterly point in the North by Wednesday. Thursday then sees a spell of rain and hills now move SW on an occluded front dying out over the SW later in the day. Eastern and Central Britain may see the isolated wintry shower or two briefly before a deepening depression to the NW of Britain sweeeps any cold weather away with freshening Southerly winds carrying rain East across the UK on Friday with some snow over the hills for a time.
GFS then shows a very unsettled and windy spell with winds between South and West throughout with showers and longer spells of rain occurring with all too much frequency as deep Low pressure areas successively sweep NE over the UK with temperatures very close to average for early February.
The GFS Ensembles show a wet and windy two weeks with the Atlantic in total control of the UK weather with Low pressure after Low pressure ensuring that the weather doesn't allow any recovery in conditions affecting the flooded areas of the SW. Temperatures will remain close to average and after a short chillier than average spell for a time this week we become rather milder than average in places later.
UKMO tonight has conditions on Sunday governed by a Low pressure area moving away to the North taking it's showers with it and allowing a weak ridge of High pressure to cross East and bring a drier spell of weather for many ahead of a new Low pressure area approaching from the SW to start next week.
GEM is also painting a very unsettled picture with showers or longer spells of rain in strong SW winds in association with Low pressure encircling over and to the NW of Britain.
NAVGEM is very similar with Low pressure well established to the NW of Britain with strong winds and spells of rain and showers sweeping NE on regular occasions from this coming weekend.
ECM too is very changeable but perhaps a little less deeply unsettled over the South for a time with average temperatures and winds from the South or SW for most of the time.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show the likelihood of Low pressure being positioned just to the NW of the UK with a cyclonic South or SW flow across the UK in pressure levels at sub 1000mbs over the majority of the UK. With relatively mild winds from the SW and such low pressure we can only expect the prospect of plenty more rain and showers, probably heaviest in the areas that least need it, being the West and South.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Jet Stream Forecast maintains the flow close to or over Southern Britain over the coming few weeks. The flow will be just to the South through the firsts week before it shows signs of strengthening strongly again later in the low resolution part of the run.
In Summary the Atlantic is gaining supremacy more and more with each run as the embers of the cold spell become reduced to one day on Thursday. With successive deep Low pressure areas spiralling around to the NW of Britain from all output to a greater or lesser degree the weather will remain very unsettled and often wet with showers or longer spells of rain in brisk, sometimes strong SW winds and temperatures recovering back to near or even a little above the seasonal average in the South at times.
Edited by user
27 January 2014 20:43:32
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Reason: Not specified
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset