To quote Monty Python: "Worse, How can it possibly be any worse?"

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Before viewing the model runs these days, I have the following question in my mind...

"So... how fridged are we?"

 

I swear, that's the choice of words I use 

 

Anyway, GFS serves up yet another super-soaker FI, and it's not hard to see how we are likely to get there, as the weekend trough acts to send warm air advection up the coast of Scandinavia and promotes a build of heights there, but in doing so it ends up situated above the 'end' of the strong Atlantic jet, which means that upstream disturbances rocket across the UK and develop rapidly, only to grind to a halt upon drawing near, resulting in stalled or slow moving frontal systems across our sodden land.

Now here's the major problem we have; if that weekend trough was to disrupt more and end up further SW, we'd need that adjustment to be very large in order to avoid ending up taking a different route to the same longer term result. So large, in fact, that you really wouldn't count on it.

...so we're looking for the trough to make less progress east by Friday (+96h), in which case a ridge from the SW could entice the Scandi Block close enough to keep us clear of the fronts and perhaps under a somewhat chilly regime if continental air gets into the mix.

The 00z ECM op run actually managed this briefly for day 7, before the invasion of the tail end of a trailing front on day 8 followed by the westerlies returning... day 10 gave uncertain prospects, however, as energy dug south in the Atlantic and allowed a ridge to build up toward the UK from the south. With the trough to the west of Iceland decaying and about to be met by an amplified upstream trough, shifting the mean trough position west a bit, the day 11-12 evolution from there could be a ridge buffing up the Scandi Block such that it extends across the North Sea and influnces the UK more convincingly.

 

So yeah, there's that last glimmer of hope left for the next fortnight, and within the hour we'll know if it remains or not... 

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012712/ECH1-168.GIF?27-0

I am not sure anyone will fall for the ECM block from the East again this Winter,, but here it is again

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014012712/ECH1-216.GIF?27-0

As you were

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Yes and it's a nap now I feel that we'll get a cold, miserable Spring as the first half of February looks a write off judging by tonight's charts.

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I have had frost over the car three times this winter , woeful, a few more would be fantastic , don't care what month

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Tonight's 12z ECMWF and UKMO and GFS 12z runs, have Generally average Minimum and Maximum Temperatures, and some spells and areas of West and North UK at times get slightly or a bit more below average both night and daytime, in Active low pressure as it sends Colder Westerly and NW Flows, this spreads East and South but is less cold as it does spread in with west and NW winds.

There looks like a drier spell following Friday and Saturday's Stormy and Wet weather for the UK, for Sunday and first part of Monday, it gets less cold by Tuesday as less cold SW flow associated with North Atlantic Low pressure domination to spread in UK, through Wednesday and Thursday 6th and 7th Feb. 2014, plenty more Wet rainy and Milder weather is set in forecast from NW and N Atlantic spreading Windy and both mild but later the Colder West flow after mild SW flow, looks like heavy rain and blustery showers are not going to bring any respite to our Flooding rains and rives etc.

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Just three frosts? Even we have had a couple more than that! I wonder where the Manchester winter index is sitting on KevBrads scale in relation to poor winters of the past?
Looking wet for next week on current output

Now that February is in the reliable time frame and the models are getting worse instead of better there can be few members on hear who are not desperate for spring.

The winters of the 00s were poor but this is desperate and I will just be glad when this excuse for a winter is over.

My God even in the winter of 1974/75 Birmingham had had 3 days with lying snow by now but this year the city hasn't had 3 days with a blob of sleet!.

Truly, truly awful.

Andy

PS In winter 1988/89 Birmingham had also had 3 mornings of lying snow due to an excellent snowfall in late November and the dry, bright mildness of January was far better than the grim rain of this year.

If anyone can find a worse December/January in the West Midlands than 2013/14 I would love to see it

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 Wot, winter over ?

 Cue the  coldest late Feb on record

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I mean car windscreen frosts , had a very slight frost on the grass but with no need to attack the car

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I don't think late November counts as part of the meteorogical winter though as defined by the Met Office, does it?

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Hi everyone. Here is the evening report on the latest 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Monday January 27th 2014.

All models show a slowly filling depression slipping slowly SSE over the UK and down over France by Thursday having largely filled up by then. Over the next 48 hours further very showery weather persists over the UK with showers or longer spells of rain with hail at times and sleet and snow over the high hills of the North. Winds will be brisk from a West or SW point in the South then an easterly point in the North by Wednesday. Thursday then sees a spell of rain and hills now move SW on an occluded front dying out over the SW later in the day. Eastern and Central Britain may see the isolated wintry shower or two briefly before a deepening depression to the NW of Britain sweeeps any cold weather away with freshening Southerly winds carrying rain East across the UK on Friday with some snow over the hills for a time.

GFS then shows a very unsettled and windy spell with winds between South and West throughout with showers and longer spells of rain occurring with all too much frequency as deep Low pressure areas successively sweep NE over the UK with temperatures very close to average for early February.

The GFS Ensembles show a wet and windy two weeks with the Atlantic in total control of the UK weather with Low pressure after Low pressure ensuring that the weather doesn't allow any  recovery in conditions affecting the flooded areas of the SW. Temperatures will remain close to average and after a short chillier than average spell for a time this week we become rather milder than average in places later.

UKMO tonight has conditions on Sunday governed by a Low pressure area moving away to the North taking it's showers with it and allowing a weak ridge of High pressure to cross East and bring a drier spell of weather for many ahead of a new Low pressure area approaching from the SW to start next week.

GEM is also painting a very unsettled picture with showers or longer spells of rain in strong SW winds in association with Low pressure encircling over and to the NW of Britain.

NAVGEM is very similar with Low pressure well established to the NW of Britain with strong winds and spells of rain and showers sweeping NE on regular occasions from this coming weekend.

ECM too is very changeable but perhaps a little less deeply unsettled over the South for a time with average temperatures and winds from the South or SW for most of the time.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show the likelihood of Low pressure being positioned just to the NW of the UK with a cyclonic South or SW flow across the UK in pressure levels at sub 1000mbs over the majority of the UK. With relatively mild winds from the SW and such low pressure we can only expect the prospect of plenty more rain and showers, probably heaviest in the areas that least need it, being the West and South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast maintains the flow close to or over Southern Britain over the coming few weeks. The flow will be just to the South through the firsts week before it shows signs of strengthening strongly again later in the low resolution part of the run.

In Summary the Atlantic is gaining supremacy more and more with each run as the embers of the cold spell become reduced to one day on Thursday. With successive deep Low pressure areas spiralling around to the NW of Britain from all output to a greater or lesser degree the weather will remain very unsettled and often wet with showers or longer spells of rain in brisk, sometimes strong SW winds and temperatures recovering back to near or even a little above the seasonal average in the South at times.

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Just one thing to say to Gibby - excellent analysis as always, but the opposite to what the majority of us wanted to hear.
I cannot wait for this most depressing and awful of awful winters to be over!

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'Yes that's generally the way, just when you think live is at it lowest ebb, when things look like they can never get any better; they suddenly get worse!"

Victor meldrew

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Corr blimmy u lot have a stiff drink . There has been some good long range models predicting mid feb cold gavs vid today being one of them. Going to be late winter we have had loads before. U think never going to get cold then bang it comes just like that.chins up

Yeh well it might be another 2005. Equally it might be another 2012 and we know how that one turned out 

Todays chart:

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/00_1.gif

2005:

http://www2.wetter3.de/Archiv/GFS/2005012700_1.gif

Pretty disimilar. 

2012 by contrast IS similar

http://www2.wetter3.de/Archiv/GFS/2012012700_1.gif

 

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tbf though strat warming is coming into the reliable timeframe now. Last half of february still has the potential for a wintry sting. 

NAVGEM is pretty intense

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014012712/navgemnh-7-180.png?27-17

 

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If these westerlies were to persist into April, May, June or even further, what sort of summer could we expect as the underlying weather theme.......?

I might be wrong here, but arn't summer westerlies an entirely different beast? In summer the polar vortex doesn't exist so mid latitude cyclones tend to be very different and contain alot of convective precipatation and with less classic frontal systems. I don't think it would be possible for the same sort of westerly to continue into the summer. If you want a warm dry summer, though you would still be wanting blocking of some description. 

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Summer could go either way - anyone's guess really

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Evening all.

Stratopheric warming has been chipping away at the vortex for some time and a possible early final warming has been making an appearance on GFS operational.

The below looks like a splitting stratospheric vortex at the 30hPa level 204h out which is on the edge of the reliable at that level.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014012712&var=HGT&lev=30mb&hour=204 

Even if all the controls and ensemble members show the atlantic roaring in, they'll change.

A week from now we'll be looking at some possible solutions that will reinvigorate the roller coaster for a final winter surge of enthusiasm.

I'm personally not sure if we'll get anything spectacular but following a steady (if unspctacular) strat warming I would not bet against something cooler, if not cold, for the remainder of winter. And probably into Spring.

NAVGEM strat output is not to be taken seriously. tbh, i cant work out how the model can make such a reasonable job of the trop when it is so ultra progressive at 10hpa. there is clearly no decent connection between the lower and upper strat. 

onto the real modelling and the extended ens say forget the first half of feb - but you already knew that !

the other thing i dont understand is the comments that events in the strat will change the model output when the models realise whats happening in the strat.  its the same bloody model. it goes from the ground to the top of the strat. so if its modelling changes in the strat, it will also model their subsequent influence on the trop.  if you are saying that there could be improved model runs in two weeks time when any downwelling has come from a warming then thats fine.  (fwiw, exeter dont think there will be anything notable occuring in the strat which will significantly affect the trop).

What I find amusing is talk of SSW effecting our weather come mid February, correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't the PV start to wane anyway at this time of year, so surely it will be down to the natural demise of the the Stratospehre.