Yes and warming naturally occurs right from Dec 23 or so. But its a smooth and gradual increase in temperature, very different to the major and rapid warming that occurs as a result of deceleration in the stratosphere. And to be clear, I don't think anyone is suggesting the models are wrong because of what is being said in the strat. A strat warming now takes a few weeks to affect the troposphere, as it is we might be waiting until late february or even early march. 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

Even after a night out (don't ask), I can see just how much trouble the UK looks to be in based on the 12z and 18z model output.

We basically have cross-model agreement on a series of large rain events capable of outdoing those we saw from the third week of December to the end of the first week of January.

When you think about the kind of flooding that would result... it ain't pretty.

Yes there's a final warming which weakens the PV before spring but it's gradual and model output suggests it could come early and be pronounced.

Don't take to me about high tides.....  We are in for an interesting couple of days in Guernsey with these bad boys!

What's happenning with the much-touted and 'improved' GEM at the moment?



As suspected, very unsettled and wet and windy across the board for, once again, the foreseable future.
For areas which have seriously been affected by flooding such as large areas of Somerset it is a disaster. For most it varies from annoying to non-descript because, believe it or not, some people actually like this sort of weather.
Rest assured I will be making the most of the 'bone-chilling' 6deg this Thursday LOL.

And for poiltical correctness, I should mention that it has and will continue to snow a bit on top of the Scottish mountains.

Yes Michael you are right, but at this time of the morning I am rather prone to the odd solecism when it comes to the unappealing outlook

The Jet is progged to take a slightly more Southerly track and it appears to have intensified the storms that will hit Southern England, perhaps picking up warmer moisture.  Excellent outlook for the storm watchers and of course the advocates of global warming - headlines awaited for warmest / wettest winter ever and the Express saying that they called it right again.

For me it is now important for this mildness to continue and intensify into a warm Spring so I await the LRFs with interest.    

Have to say I have just gone through the temps on the lates GFS run and it certainly isn't what I would call mild temps average out betweem 3-7c , has to be said there does seem to be alot of rain, which is not good

Agreed, it doesn't look that mild but the rain and possibly damaging winds are now a real threat. The roots of the trees are certainly not frozen in.

We have had nowhere near as much rain as in the far South and South West yet I cannot remember such a continuous wet and windy winter.  I really did expect this to stop in February...unbelievable.

Yes probably but it's transient and pretty normal even in mild spells to get some leading-edge sludge.
I do however admire your enthusiasm.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012800/UW144-7.GIF?28-06

850s are still cold even with a westerly

what about the South ? no  winter 1981 style cold zonality down here then , this really has been an attrocious winter .

Good morning. Here is the report from the midnight runs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday January 28th 2014 and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models remain adamant that the very unsettled weather is to persist over the UK for the next two weeks at least. In the short term our current depression near North Wales this morning continues to drift slowly South while maintaining a complex structure and therefore spinning spells of rain and showers across the UK with winds switching Easterly for all areas later tomorrow and into Thursday when colder air could turn any showers left to snow, especially over higher ground and in the East. By Friday a new Atlantic systems pushes a new trough in from the West with a spell of increasing Southerly winds and spells of rain falling as snow on Northern high ground for a time as it becomes less cold.

GFS then shows a windy and cold weekend with strong and blustery Westerly winds and squally showers of rain and hail and snow on hills as deep Low pressure resides to the North of the UK. Through next week sees more Low pressure areas swinging NE to the West and NW of Britain with each bringing their own version of strong winds and rain followed by showers in temperatures never far from the seasonal average and strong winds at times. The flooding issues across parts of the UK will be exaggerated further by all this rain should it verify.

The GFS Ensembles continue to back the story of the operational indicating further unsettled weather fuelled by Atlantic depressions. there will be copious rainfall over all areas at times and with temperatures rising somewhat later as the orientation of winds swing more from West to SW.

UKMO closes it's run with the end of next weekend looking unsettled with an unstable SW flow with showers and the prospect of more general rain later as a new disturbance is shown to be moving NE towards the SW of the UK.

GEM today shows a parent depression anchoring itself in mid Atlantic spinning small but active depressions East and North across the UK at times next week with spells of rain followed by showers likely for all in sometimes strong South or SW winds.

NAVGEM also shows a similar structure to the synoptics next week though it does hold meaningful Low pressure slightly further away from the UK keeping the worst of flooding rains away with more occasional bursts interspersed with some drier spells especially towards the East and SE.

ECM shows an increasingly disturbed period again next week following an unsettled weekend. After a brief respite early in the week Low pressure pushing up from the SW becomes part of a major centre in mid Atlantic later with spells of rain and showers on active troughs crossing NE over all areas later next week with no doubt more flooding issues likely but with compensatory temperatures close to average at worst.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts today confirm the operational's sequence well with the likelihood from its ensembles of a deep Low pressure out to the NW and closing in on the UK with the resultant SW airflow keeping the UK wet and often  windy but never overly cold.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream Forecast keeps the flow moving from West to East close to Southern Britain or over France throughout with a strengthening flow hinted at again in the second half of the run.

In Summary this morning the charts have yet another troublesome look to them as all models show their own version of foretelling a very unsettled period with spells of heavy rain followed by showers and blustery winds from the SW. The one consolation South or SW strong winds will maintain temperatures close to average or indeed above at times and frost, ice and snow looks very unlikely beyond this week. Flooding will definitely remain a feature in parts of the UK and for those trying to tackle the flooding issues on the Somerset levels will have their work continue to be thwarted by the additional rains not required.

Friday is looking like the wettest day since the start of the month, with a slow moving but also active cold front backed up by a fairly notable temperature gradient. Bizzarely, there's no Met Office warning for this event yet, despite cross-model agreement.

After that and out to day 6 or 7, we find ourselves closer to the margin between troughing and the continental high pressure, but all models continue to move the frontal systems into the UK where they become slow moving or stall out.

Then comes the theme of a general area of troughing in the Atlantic swinging lots of active disturbances around it, perhaps not quite so many in the case of ECM.

The frequency of the rain is notable as well as the totals - not one of the next 10 days is predicted to be dry here, although Sunday comes very close.

As it stands, it looks like January will end up seeing only one dry day in the entire month here!