Good morning. Here is the report from the midnight runs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday January 28th 2014 and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models remain adamant that the very unsettled weather is to persist over the UK for the next two weeks at least. In the short term our current depression near North Wales this morning continues to drift slowly South while maintaining a complex structure and therefore spinning spells of rain and showers across the UK with winds switching Easterly for all areas later tomorrow and into Thursday when colder air could turn any showers left to snow, especially over higher ground and in the East. By Friday a new Atlantic systems pushes a new trough in from the West with a spell of increasing Southerly winds and spells of rain falling as snow on Northern high ground for a time as it becomes less cold.
GFS then shows a windy and cold weekend with strong and blustery Westerly winds and squally showers of rain and hail and snow on hills as deep Low pressure resides to the North of the UK. Through next week sees more Low pressure areas swinging NE to the West and NW of Britain with each bringing their own version of strong winds and rain followed by showers in temperatures never far from the seasonal average and strong winds at times. The flooding issues across parts of the UK will be exaggerated further by all this rain should it verify.
The GFS Ensembles continue to back the story of the operational indicating further unsettled weather fuelled by Atlantic depressions. there will be copious rainfall over all areas at times and with temperatures rising somewhat later as the orientation of winds swing more from West to SW.
UKMO closes it's run with the end of next weekend looking unsettled with an unstable SW flow with showers and the prospect of more general rain later as a new disturbance is shown to be moving NE towards the SW of the UK.
GEM today shows a parent depression anchoring itself in mid Atlantic spinning small but active depressions East and North across the UK at times next week with spells of rain followed by showers likely for all in sometimes strong South or SW winds.
NAVGEM also shows a similar structure to the synoptics next week though it does hold meaningful Low pressure slightly further away from the UK keeping the worst of flooding rains away with more occasional bursts interspersed with some drier spells especially towards the East and SE.
ECM shows an increasingly disturbed period again next week following an unsettled weekend. After a brief respite early in the week Low pressure pushing up from the SW becomes part of a major centre in mid Atlantic later with spells of rain and showers on active troughs crossing NE over all areas later next week with no doubt more flooding issues likely but with compensatory temperatures close to average at worst.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts today confirm the operational's sequence well with the likelihood from its ensembles of a deep Low pressure out to the NW and closing in on the UK with the resultant SW airflow keeping the UK wet and often windy but never overly cold.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream Forecast keeps the flow moving from West to East close to Southern Britain or over France throughout with a strengthening flow hinted at again in the second half of the run.
In Summary this morning the charts have yet another troublesome look to them as all models show their own version of foretelling a very unsettled period with spells of heavy rain followed by showers and blustery winds from the SW. The one consolation South or SW strong winds will maintain temperatures close to average or indeed above at times and frost, ice and snow looks very unlikely beyond this week. Flooding will definitely remain a feature in parts of the UK and for those trying to tackle the flooding issues on the Somerset levels will have their work continue to be thwarted by the additional rains not required.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset