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09 February 2014 11:20:24

The Met Office has published a research article on the recent bad weather. I have not had a chance to read it yet. It is a fairly lengthy document.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2014/uk-storms-and-floods

moomin75
09 February 2014 11:23:09




How Long will this damn drought gone on for???


 


SM:DUH Oops! premature


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


Drought? We wish!


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


What do you reckon though David?


If there's talk in scientific circles of wild swings in the weather we'll be back to drought but much worse than 75/76?


Originally Posted by: Osprey 

Natural variation...I'm sorry but it really is in my view.


I have a book which I am reading about Edwardian Britain (circa 1901-1910) and it's a collection of newspaper cuttings from that period.


There were plenty of particularly (exceptionally) wet periods, balanced out by long droughts and spells of exceptional heat.


Indeed, one of the newspaper cuttings talked of an Easter Day blizzard in April 1908, followed by a sodden winter (more rain than had fallen in 100 years), followed by a long drought, followed by exceptional heatwaves (temperatures in the shade of 98f).


The following winter, 20 degrees of frost in the ground by November, followed by torrential rain and floods.


This was in the early 1900s, and not exclusively limited to one year. This was prior to the mass introduction of the motor car, and there was no talk of climate change, just that Mother Nature will have her way to balance out the conditions of our temperate climate.


I'm sorry, but these wild swings in weather have been going on for generations, in fact, since the end of the last ice age (which some say is still receding), these wild swings occur, particularly on an island such as ours with a vast swathe of warm water to our west.


This is nothing unusual in our country, and at risk of getting on the AGW bandwagon, what we are seeing plain and simple is constant brainwashing from the authorities and the media that this is in some way unusual and all man made.


Absolute hogwash. I don't doubt for one minute that at some stage in the next 6 months we will have a long dry spell.


Twas ever thus!


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2014 11:37:26

I'm struggling with how they are suddenly claiming increased winter stormines is linked when just a couple of years they were blaming climate change for lack of winter rain and falling levels in acquifers.
Also the last two severe winters were probably caused by global warming and were likely to be what we should now expect.

These are just fashionable exagerration of a run of 'bad weather' IMO.
And if the storms had been affecting Scotland and the North of England, like they usually do we would hardly have heard anything about it.


moomin75
09 February 2014 11:42:03


I'm struggling with how they are suddenly claiming increased winter stormines is linked when just a couple of years they were blaming climate change for lack of winter rain and falling levels in acquifers.
Also the last two severe winters were probably caused by global warming and were likely to be what we should now expect.

These are just fashionable exagerration of a run of 'bad weather' IMO.
And if the storms had been affecting Scotland and the North of England, like they usually do we would hardly have heard anything about it.


Originally Posted by: four 

Exactly. In 2006, we were told by the powers that be that this climate change (global warming as it was called then), meant that we would have to get used to a Mediterranean climate and that we would all need to plant cacti in our gardens.


I would do if I could, but sadly, my garden is currently a lake and the cacti don't like it.


Think I will settle for my water lillies!


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Osprey
09 February 2014 11:57:28

We'll wait for another 10 years and see how it pans out then...


I will say this, "the seasons have changed"


Nothing scientific and I'm not on about GW but something ain't right and I'm not talking about this winter either although you can add this one to the list


(Don't ask for a list...SM:GLARE )


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
moomin75
09 February 2014 12:00:07


We'll wait for another 10 years and see how it pans out then...


I will say this, "the seasons have changed"


Nothing scientific and I'm not on about GW but something ain't right and I'm not talking about this winter either although you can add this one to the list


(Don't ask for a list...SM:GLARE )


Originally Posted by: Osprey 

Perhaps all the large earthquakes in recent years has slightly tilted the earth's axis out of kilter, having a knock-on effect!


Well it's about as far-fetched as AGW so might as well mention it.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Charmhills
09 February 2014 12:06:24

Frequent heavy showers overnight and very windy, 6mms.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
JimC
  • JimC
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2014 12:23:43

Bit of a blowy night last night, gusts to 25mph in the garden but much stronger away from this sheltered spot, not so much rain with only 8.6mm today so far, temp currently at 4.7C but drops a degree in the showers which have sometimes given small hail, all in all reasonably pleasant between the showers.

sunny coast
09 February 2014 12:37:40





How Long will this damn drought gone on for???


 


SM:DUH Oops! premature


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Drought? We wish!


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


What do you reckon though David?


If there's talk in scientific circles of wild swings in the weather we'll be back to drought but much worse than 75/76?


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Natural variation...I'm sorry but it really is in my view.


I have a book which I am reading about Edwardian Britain (circa 1901-1910) and it's a collection of newspaper cuttings from that period.


There were plenty of particularly (exceptionally) wet periods, balanced out by long droughts and spells of exceptional heat.


Indeed, one of the newspaper cuttings talked of an Easter Day blizzard in April 1908, followed by a sodden winter (more rain than had fallen in 100 years), followed by a long drought, followed by exceptional heatwaves (temperatures in the shade of 98f).


The following winter, 20 degrees of frost in the ground by November, followed by torrential rain and floods.


This was in the early 1900s, and not exclusively limited to one year. This was prior to the mass introduction of the motor car, and there was no talk of climate change, just that Mother Nature will have her way to balance out the conditions of our temperate climate.


I'm sorry, but these wild swings in weather have been going on for generations, in fact, since the end of the last ice age (which some say is still receding), these wild swings occur, particularly on an island such as ours with a vast swathe of warm water to our west.


This is nothing unusual in our country, and at risk of getting on the AGW bandwagon, what we are seeing plain and simple is constant brainwashing from the authorities and the media that this is in some way unusual and all man made.


Absolute hogwash. I don't doubt for one minute that at some stage in the next 6 months we will have a long dry spell.


Twas ever thus!


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


 


agreed entirely

Osprey
09 February 2014 13:01:05






How Long will this damn drought gone on for???


 


SM:DUH Oops! premature


Originally Posted by: sunny coast 


Drought? We wish!


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


What do you reckon though David?


If there's talk in scientific circles of wild swings in the weather we'll be back to drought but much worse than 75/76?


Originally Posted by: Osprey 

Natural variation...I'm sorry but it really is in my view.


I have a book which I am reading about Edwardian Britain (circa 1901-1910) and it's a collection of newspaper cuttings from that period.


There were plenty of particularly (exceptionally) wet periods, balanced out by long droughts and spells of exceptional heat.


Indeed, one of the newspaper cuttings talked of an Easter Day blizzard in April 1908, followed by a sodden winter (more rain than had fallen in 100 years), followed by a long drought, followed by exceptional heatwaves (temperatures in the shade of 98f).


The following winter, 20 degrees of frost in the ground by November, followed by torrential rain and floods.


This was in the early 1900s, and not exclusively limited to one year. This was prior to the mass introduction of the motor car, and there was no talk of climate change, just that Mother Nature will have her way to balance out the conditions of our temperate climate.


I'm sorry, but these wild swings in weather have been going on for generations, in fact, since the end of the last ice age (which some say is still receding), these wild swings occur, particularly on an island such as ours with a vast swathe of warm water to our west.


This is nothing unusual in our country, and at risk of getting on the AGW bandwagon, what we are seeing plain and simple is constant brainwashing from the authorities and the media that this is in some way unusual and all man made.


Absolute hogwash. I don't doubt for one minute that at some stage in the next 6 months we will have a long dry spell.


Twas ever thus!


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 


agreed entirely


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


Well it's reassuring to know that some of you experts can guarantee we're not going underwater or that we will bake to death


Two fingers SM:PUNK to global warming or climate change eh!


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Whether Idle
09 February 2014 14:38:06

The current increase in severe and dramatic weather variation is due to global warming. 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
speckledjim
09 February 2014 14:44:18


The current increase in severe and dramatic weather variation is due to global warming. 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


I thought it was a factor but not the whole story


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
speckledjim
09 February 2014 14:45:21
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26084625 
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Osprey
09 February 2014 15:00:52







How Long will this damn drought gone on for???


 


SM:DUH Oops! premature


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


Drought? We wish!


Originally Posted by: sunny coast 


What do you reckon though David?


If there's talk in scientific circles of wild swings in the weather we'll be back to drought but much worse than 75/76?


Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Natural variation...I'm sorry but it really is in my view.


I have a book which I am reading about Edwardian Britain (circa 1901-1910) and it's a collection of newspaper cuttings from that period.


There were plenty of particularly (exceptionally) wet periods, balanced out by long droughts and spells of exceptional heat.


Indeed, one of the newspaper cuttings talked of an Easter Day blizzard in April 1908, followed by a sodden winter (more rain than had fallen in 100 years), followed by a long drought, followed by exceptional heatwaves (temperatures in the shade of 98f).


The following winter, 20 degrees of frost in the ground by November, followed by torrential rain and floods.


This was in the early 1900s, and not exclusively limited to one year. This was prior to the mass introduction of the motor car, and there was no talk of climate change, just that Mother Nature will have her way to balance out the conditions of our temperate climate.


I'm sorry, but these wild swings in weather have been going on for generations, in fact, since the end of the last ice age (which some say is still receding), these wild swings occur, particularly on an island such as ours with a vast swathe of warm water to our west.


This is nothing unusual in our country, and at risk of getting on the AGW bandwagon, what we are seeing plain and simple is constant brainwashing from the authorities and the media that this is in some way unusual and all man made.


Absolute hogwash. I don't doubt for one minute that at some stage in the next 6 months we will have a long dry spell.


Twas ever thus!


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


 


agreed entirely


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Well it's reassuring to know that some of you experts can guarantee we're not going underwater or that we will bake to death


Two fingers SM:PUNK to global warming or climate change eh!


Originally Posted by: Osprey 


Sorry, I should have put my post on the TWO Community Climate Forum, it was just a quick comment in passing


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
springsunshine
09 February 2014 15:10:03


The current increase in severe and dramatic weather variation is due to global warming. 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Absolute hogwash!!

DeeDee
09 February 2014 15:21:52
Landed @Luton Airport, from Barcelona at about 1140 this morning : A very bumpy ride all the way from the English Channel, especially the last 10 mins as the cross wind was pulling us sideways. The airport windsock was standing almost upright 😢 😢

Harpenden, Herts.
Jive Buddy
09 February 2014 16:05:32



Awoken by violent squall.  More to come later by the looks of the radar. back  off to bed...


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


I'm back in Bridge this morning, not looking forwrd to these cold squally showers we're getting right now ( 6.45am) Crying

Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 


I think you may have a quieter day squall wise today, I hope so.  Im off out with the kids later and hope for no showers and less gales.  Fingers crossed.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Yup, was a lot quieter rainfall wise - quite a bit colder in the wind though, enough to make fingers freeze and hinder my ability to write properly


Situation basically unchanged at Bridge and the surrounding villages - so much water, nowhere for it to go. It's so much at breaking point now, that every passing shower simply adds to the levels and spills over. All eyes on the Mon/Tue rainfall now. I'm back again tomorrow morning, and will be at the incident briefing first thing, so hope to get more info from the EA etc. Some of the residents I spoke to today, won't even use the toilet until they see the pump-out vehicle outside, such is the level the sewers/draininge are at. The spirit there amongst the community though, is absolutely fantastic! 


It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
The Beast from the East
09 February 2014 17:09:02

14 Severe warnings issued for the Thames. Even here in Purley, the underground River Bourne has risen to record levels and causing chaos with road closures and some homes flooded along the Godstone Road.


Could be a very serious situation developing. Thankfully it was dry today, but the outlook does look rather grim


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Essan
09 February 2014 17:14:56


In 2006, we were told by the powers that be that this climate change (global warming as it was called then), meant that we would have to get used to a Mediterranean climate and that we would all need to plant cacti in our gardens.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 



You mean the Daily Express?  


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Essan
09 February 2014 17:22:37



The current increase in severe and dramatic weather variation is due to global warming. 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


I thought it was a factor but not the whole story


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 



Aye, it's a likely factor.  

Failing to dredge rivers and building on adjacent flood plains and water meadows and assumig that we will never get anything other than average weather,  may also be factor.

And failure to note Sod's Law is a bigger factor.   Remember when we were all complaining the more money wasn't spent on snow ploughs etc ........     Forgetting the late 1990s like they never happened.

Oh well, roll in 2015 and massive public demand for more money to be spent on alleviating droughts and "why are we wasting money on dredging rivers when we need more rock salt?"

Ultimately we are a) stupid and b) obsessed with money.  So expect more problems for as long as you live.


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Devonian
09 February 2014 17:49:22




The current increase in severe and dramatic weather variation is due to global warming. 


Originally Posted by: Essan 


I thought it was a factor but not the whole story


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 



Aye, it's a likely factor.  

Failing to dredge rivers and building on adjacent flood plains and water meadows and assumig that we will never get anything other than average weather,  may also be factor.

And failure to note Sod's Law is a bigger factor.   Remember when we were all complaining the more money wasn't spent on snow ploughs etc ........     Forgetting the late 1990s like they never happened.

Oh well, roll in 2015 and massive public demand for more money to be spent on alleviating droughts and "why are we wasting money on dredging rivers when we need more rock salt?"

Ultimately we are a) stupid and b) obsessed with money.  So expect more problems for as long as you live.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Somebody must do the maths on all this.


For a start there are at least 65 sq km flooded in Somerset (I think that's an figure that's been around for weeks but I can't find another). it's reasonable I think to say it averages 1m deep (probably more?). So, at least 65 million cubic m of water to shift? Then I need to find river capacities, normal available river capacity, how much extra capacity dredging would provided etc etc etc.


I remain to be convinced dredging solves the problem. But, if anyone has done the sums.......


Edit: wrt the rest of your post earlier today I heard a irreverent radio host describe what is happening as 'spells of heavy blame'. We do, it seems, like something to blame and if that doesn't suffice someone.

09 February 2014 18:28:07
Wrong thread I know but disgraceful comments today from Pickles...playing the blame game and blaming the EA...perhaps he'll be blaming them when the Thames floods again.... And saying they should have dredged it!
The Beast from the East
09 February 2014 18:53:19
I agree. There are no lengths to which this government won't stoop. Trying to blame the EA after cutting it's funding and the personal attacks on Chris Smith. Like the removal of Sally Morgan from OFSTED, the Tories want to get rid of their political opponents
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Devonian
09 February 2014 19:09:58

I agree. There are no lengths to which this government won't stoop. Trying to blame the EA after cutting it's funding and the personal attacks on Chris Smith. Like the removal of Sally Morgan from OFSTED, the Tories want to get rid of their political opponents

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yes, I think the attack on Chris Smith by Pickles was about as undignified as it gets.

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2014 19:36:15

I heard the river capacity was 40% down on when it was dredged every few years.
There would have been flooding but it would be considerably less.
So that farm which was just about coping on Countryfile last week would probably not have needed a panic evacuation this week.

How anyone can realistically say they don't think dredging would make much difference is beyond me.
If you have a two gallon bucket, then put a shovel of sand in the bottom, does it still hold two gallons of water?
It really is that simple.

The policy has been to raise water levels through summer to benefit wildlife.
The way they have done that is by deliberately stopping routine maintenance of the ditches.
They could have used the sluices to do that if they had any sense, then the capacity would still be there when needed.


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