Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Friday February 21st 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show the current showery Westerly flow giving way over the next 24 hours to a stronger but milder SW flow and fronts moving into NW Britain through tomorrow. This then moves SE through tomorrow and Sunday with some quite large rainfall amounts over the hills of the North and West and later in the South and East late Sunday and into Monday. Then under a complex Low pressure system setting up over Northern Britain before midweek the weather will remain very unsettled and often wet and windy with SW gales accompanying persistent rain and more westerly gales with showers following on behind.

GFS then ends the week on a colder note as deep Low pressure edges to the East of the UK with a cold wrap around of Northerly winds affecting the UK with wintry showers up and down the UK and before a drier day or two when frosts could occur as a ridge of High pressure crosses East. The rest of the run sees the weather remain changeable with further Atlantic fronts and Low pressure's with attendant rain and wind alternating with brighter showery conditions and also the occasional colder interlude under a ridge of High pressure.

UKMO tonight ends the run with Low pressure to the North of the UK with an unstable Westerly flow with further showery rain at times and temperatures close to the seasonal average.

GEM also shows very changeable conditions prevailing with rain or showers at times with some short colder interludes with wintry showers or dry weather with some night frosts. No sustained periods of dry weather look likely with the likelihood of further Low pressure and attendant rain never far behind.

NAVGEM keeps a lot of unsettled weather going over the UK later next week with rain and showers turning wintry with time as winds turn NW towards next weekend.

ECM shows a change to colder weather towards next weekend following an unsettled and windy, showery week as Low pressure slips away towards the East and turns winds into the North for a while with wintry showers. Then later still the weather settles down briefly as a ridge tumbles down over the UK with Westerly winds returning behind it.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show Low pressure out to the NW with a link to Low pressure over Europe. As this morning there are some members which show a tenuous link of the Azores high to one over Eastern Europe while the likelihood for the UK is still rather unsettled weather with rain at times in a trough somewhere near the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Ensembles tonight show very changeable conditions persisting for virtually the entire run with rain and showers at times in fairly average temperatures. Late in the run a pattern change to something more settled under High pressure seems possible with rather lower temperatures and frosts at night as a result.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

The Jet Stream reflects the ensemble data by transferring the Jet flow high over the Atlantic and Iceland late in week 2 allowing a strong ridge of High pressure to build across the UK at last. Until then it's position remains constant down to the South of the UK with several more depressions bringing copious rain and showers from UK based Low pressure through next week.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=3&carte=0

In Summary the weather still shows some signs of change towards the end of next week and weekend. Whether it is a notable weather change or just a temporary phase remains to be seen and there is some evidence even at this range that the Atlantic will prove to strong. In the mean time it's business as usual for the next week or so with rain and showers for all in blustery winds before the aforementioned change could result in something rather drier and colder with frost at night.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140221/18/384/h850t850eu.png

Winter finally arrives :S

On a more serious note I think there is a real risk of march being the coldest 'winter' month again. 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022118/gfsnh-1-372.png?18

yes, wouldn't that be excellent after the suffering of the last 3 months

Yes would be sod's law that this would happen, 9th March and we have strong blocking and an easterly, shame it wasn't 9th January.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022118/gfsnh-0-384.png?18

For heavens sake - I don't want this now.

Sorry to go OT and as a moderator as well. But this is the last thing we want to see now.

Royal we, I assume. I'd love an easterly in March, with snow!

It's gone from this morning's output, no surprises there.

You'd love an easterly with snow at any time......rare beast that they are

Indeed - and it's 9 years to the day since the last one! I do wonder, though, whether we're going to get a sustained blocked/easterly spell later on this year... "be it dry or be it wet, nature always pays her debt" as the saying goes.

It was more a gentle reminder to Gavin that not everyone wants the same thing weather-wise.

Attention now turning to be Spring and the convective element that a slack polar airmass can provide with a warming sun in an early March afternoon. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from the big 5 this morning being Saturday February 22nd 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show a developing and strengthening SW flow across the UK today and tomorrow. Troughs of Low pressure will move quickly NE across Scotland today with heavy rain with the trailing cold front meandering only slowly SE across the UK later today, tomorrow and into Monday with copious heavy rain totals over the hills of the North and West. Then on Monday the cold front scoots away east over England to be followed by another complex Low pressure area and fronts develivering further rain then showers across the UK in westerly winds by midweek. It will be mild in the South and East until Tuesday when average temperatures return for all.

GFS then shows midweek and the end of the week for that matter as very unsettld with further rain and showers in cyclonic winds and average temperatures before things turn colder under a Northerly flow at the weekend with wintry showers towards the North and East and frosts at night generally. Through the remainder of the run changeable conditions persist but the weather will be much less wet than recently over the South in particular with the most frequent and heavy rainfall likely to the NW. With drier and finer weather in the South frost at night could be more common if skies stay clear.

UKMO closes its run with the end of next week with Low pressure over the North Sea with a showery WNW flow across the UK with most of the shwers in the North and West where they will become wintry over the hills by the weekend.

GEM shows a colder and showery period next weekend with wintry showers almost anywhere but more especially over the north and East in NW or North winds allowing frosts to develop at night under increasingly clear skies at night by the end of the run.

NAVGEM introduces colder weather too by next weekend but it shows unsettled weather persisting with rain at times or indeed snow over the hills as it turns colder with frost at night likely.

ECM at last shows a drier spell developing from next weekend as an extension of the Azores High throws a strong ridge our way with any wintry showers fading ahead of dry and bright daytime conditions and frosts at night.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts indicate less support for the operational than one would of liked with the maintained link of low pressure from the NW down across Britain to Europe which would maintain an unsettled and somewhat cool feel to things over the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Ensembles indicate an improvement in conditions after next week especially across the South with the azores High exerting more influence over this part of the World with most of the rain from Atlantic systems likely across NW Britain through Week 2.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=0&carte=0

The Jet Stream supports an improvement longer term as at last the flow ridges strongly North over the Atlantic and up towards Iceland in Week 2 allowing the Azores High to play a bigger role in domination of the Southern North Atlantic and Western Europe.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&carte=0&mode=3

In Summary the signs of improvement shown over the last few days from certain outputs is gaining some momentum this morning (although I would of preferred the ECM Ensembles to of been more supportive) as a break in the flow of Atlantic Low pressure areas begins next weekend. The better weather may be preceded by a colder period where some wintry showers are possible as winds swithch Northerly ahead of the developing ridge. there is better evidence that the ridge may hold firm rather longer across Southern areas at least and finally dislodge the Jet stream from it's Southern aspect and take it further north towards it's more common position North of the UK keeping Atlantic low pressure well North and keeping rain bearing fronts influential more towards the NW than recently. Temperatures never look like getting very low and daytimes could feel quite springlike especially with the higher elevation of sun now and the much lighter winds likely as a result.

Thank You Martin.  We shall take relief in the outcome of the model outputs.. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2761.gif

A fine spring day to look forward to

Apologies Dave, I forgot to add the word....................................not

Not really Jacko, even the Met are calling an unsettled March

UK Outlook for Wednesday 26 Feb 2014 to Friday 7 Mar 2014:

It is likely to remain unsettled with a mixture of showers and sunny spells through the end of the first week, and some snow over northern hills. It will be generally windy with gales in some places, particularly in exposed western parts. Some localised frost in the north possible, with average temperatures for the time of year. As we go into the weekend there is a risk of more prolonged, heavy spells of rain, with a risk of gales anywhere. It will turn somewhat colder and drier from the west during the weekend, with an increasing risk of frost. Following this, the latest indications are for weather systems to arrive from the west, with wetter spells and temperatures recovering to near normal.

UK Outlook for Saturday 8 Mar 2014 to Saturday 22 Mar 2014:

Latest indications suggest a more typically unsettled pattern across the United Kingdom through much of March. Through this period we can expect to see fairly average conditions, which would mean spells of wet and windy weather, mostly in the north and west, but still some decent sunny spells in between, with the best of the drier, brighter conditions in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to be around average, which may lead to more frequent incidences of frost compared to recent weeks.

Issued at: 0400 on Sat 22 Feb 2014

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022206/gfsnh-0-144.png?6

Looks promising for an easterly

No sign of anything too far off the norm for March from the UKMO who have it must be said been very good with there LRFs this season.

They have been excellent IMO, not put a foot wrong

The Met/o 30 has been good so far this winter so fair play to them.

Not before time either! Many places could do with a dry spell starting soon, and a prolonged one at that.

At 288 I would wait until it gets a little closer

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Saturday February 22nd 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show another week of unsettled weather to come with rain and strong winds at times alternating with spells of brighter weather with showers. Temperatures will stay largely near average throughout as winds look like continuing to blow from a Westerly point and continue to be strong at times. Low pressure will remain to the North or over the UK for much of the time but by the end of the week subtle changes in the synoptic pattern make for radical changes in the weather over the UK from next weekend.

GFS shows the second half of it's run with a cold Northerly flow next weekend with wintry showers for many for a time. High pressure builds steadily behind this short period and allowing fine and sunny conditions by day and frosty nights at the start of week 2. Further out in the run a North/South split seems likely as Westerly winds bring rain at times over the North while Southern areas continue to see drier and brighter weather and little if any rain.

UKMO shows Low pressure moving away East near Denmark next Friday with a cold Northerly flow with wintry showers and frosty nights looking likely next weekend.

GEM tonight shows a brief northerly next weekend before the briefest of ridges crosses the UK from the West. Thereafter renewed Low pressure slips South over the UK and away to the South as pressure builds to the North. The net result of this would be rain and showers turning wintry in rather cold air as winds veer Easterly later.

NAVGEM shows Low pressure to the East next weekend with sunny spells and wintry showers giving some snowfall over the hills as well as introducing frosts by night.

ECM tonight shows much drier conditions developing next weekend and the following week following a short colder interlude under Northerly winds and wintry showers and frosty nights. High pressure builds steadily from the SW to form a large centre just to the SW at the end of the run with milder NW winds flowing around the High later.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts still remain somewhat reluctant to follow the operational wholeheartedly but are at least slowly coming around to the idea of brighter and drier weather at times, most likely towards the South but not completely removing the risk of rain amost anywhere given that pressure remains much lower on the mean than that on the operational.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The GFS Ensembles tonight show a slow cooling of the pattern over the UK though at the same time there are strong signals of conditions becoming much drier, especially over the South later.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

The Jet Stream Forecast tonight indicates the flow moving North over the Atlantic following the demise of the seemingly endless procession of the flow close to the South of England for the next week or so. As a result of the move High pressure builds up from Southern latitudes towards the South of Britain.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=3&carte=0

In Summary the momentum for better weather continues to grow pace tonight as all models indicate varying degrees of a migration North or NE of High pressure down near the Azores. In the meantime there is still more rain and strong winds to get through this coming week before the weather perks up with a colder period of weather with wintry showers is the precursor to better conditions than of late, especially in the South where dry weather could for the first time for months become the most dominant factor of the weather. Temperatures after a colder interlude look like returning quickly to average by the end of week 2.