Good morning. Here is my Monday review of the midnight outputs issued by the NWP for today Monday February 24th 2014 as featured on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm. I am now including links to the data from which each section of my report is compiled.
All models show a Westerly flow briefly today before an active Low pressure systems streams in off the Atlantic towards NW Britain on Tuesday. So after remaining rain clears it's way across the UK this morning a showery interlude follows before a fast moving spell of rain crosses all areas tonight and Tuesday morning leaving a couple of blustery and showery days towards midweek with fresher temperatures. A new Low then brings rain and wind back over the UK towards the end of the week with some colder air developing with showers turning wintry over Northern hills towards the weekend.
GFS then shows that thereafter a typical changeable regime develops under Westerly winds with some rain at times chiefly in the North with the South staying largely dry close to high pressure to the South. Temperatures generally will return closer to average though still rather chilly in the North between weather systems under NW winds.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php
The GFS Ensembles endorse the operational this morning with a lot of dry and bright weather for Southern areas as High pressure lies to the South and SW. Some rain filters across the North at times from the Atlantic but overall conditions shown are far better than of late.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0
UKMO closes today with next Sunday being a breezy day under NW winds around Low pressure positioned over the North of Scotland and another over Biscay. The weather will be generally unsettled and showery with wintry showers over high ground. The model has taken a step back by delaying the progression of fine weather early next week following the unsettled weekend.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=6&carte=1021
GEM continues to show changeable weather well into next week as further troughs round a High pressure area to the SW with rain at times for many gradually becoming more pronounced to Northern and Western Britain.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0
The GEM Ensembles though changeable to begin with do indicate a lot of dry weather to be found in the South from next weekend on as High pressure ridges NE to be positioned over Britain late in the run. Isolated rain events are shown in the North and while winds be much lighter than of late it will also become rather mild in places later but with an increased risk of night frosts.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0
NAVGEM today ends it's run with Low pressure well in charge across and around the UK to start next week with further rain at times in a blustery westerly wind and temperatures close to average, at least in the South.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0
ECM's operational today has reverted back to a more settled phase of weather next week as High pressure builds strongly from the SW steering rain bearing systems away to the far North and keeping the UK in fine and bright daytime conditions with frosty night probable with light winds.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts look largely similar to those of last night indicating the UK could lie in a weak ridge of High pressure with Low pressure to the NW and High pressure near the Azores with a West flow of air likely over Britain with some fine weather at times, most coherent in the South with average temperatures for all with any rainfall slowly becoming more confined to the NW.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream Ensemble group continue to promote a lifting of the flow to higher latitudes across the Atlantic as the Azores High becomes more dominant promoting better weather for Southern areas at last while the North too sees less frequent spells of rain. Overall temperatures remain close to average with a flow on this trajectory NE across the Atlantic and the North of the UK in Week 2.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0
In Summary there still seems strong support for pressure to rise from the west and SW next week. To what extent this occurs is open for debate still as UKMO and NAVGEM for example holds Low pressure over the UK still as late as next Sunday with only marginal improvements suggested at next week from them. ECM and some of the other output shows a much stronger improvement leading to High pressure over the UK later next week with some much welcomed fine and dry conditions for many with some night frosts. I feel there will be plenty more twists and turns as we battle are way through another week of wind and rain at times before perhaps we can look forward to something more akin to early Spring as we move into next week.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset