Good evening. Here is my Monday review of the midday outputs issued by the NWP for today Monday February 24th 2014 as featured on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm. I am now including links to the data from which each section of my report is compiled.
All models indicate an unsettled spell to come for the remainder of the week. Tonight sees Low pressure to the West of the UK spilling a trough steadily East over the UK with rain and strong winds for all overnight followed by a sunshine and heavy shower mix tomorrow in blustery, relatively mild winds. On Wednesday a weak ridge delivers a dry day for many as it crosses East before more Low pressure becomes complex to the North and then over the UK over Thursday and the lead up to the weekend with more rain and showers for most. Over the weekend the weather remains generally unsettled but with some dry weather about but with some showers as well in a NW wind and somewhat colder conditions.
GFS then shows a typical changeable regime developing under Westerly winds with some rain at times chiefly but not exclusively in the North. The South will see rather drier weather for longer with High pressure never far away from the South and temperatures generally will return closer to average though still rather chilly in the North between weather systems under any NW winds.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0
The GFS Ensembles show very changeable conditions tonight with Low pressure trending to come in from the West at times through Week 2 maintaining a changeable theme with rain at times and snow over the hills, chiefly in the North. The South is shown by many members to have some reasonable drier interludes in accordance with High pressure close to the South or SW at times though even here rain and wind occurs at times.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0
UKMO closes today with next Sunday seeing a bank of Low pressure to the North and NW with a chilly Westerly flow carrying further rain at times in blustery winds with some snow at times on Northern hills.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=6&carte=1021
GEM also shows a Low pressure trough across the UK in a NW/SE axis. In essence the weather looks like staying changeable and showery well into next week with the air cold enough at times for some snow on northern hills.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0
The GEM Ensembles also maintain fairly changeable conditions with Low pressure areas crossing to the North of Britain next week keeping Westerly breezes going and rain at times, heaviest in the North in average temperatures.Late in the run there is support for High pressure to move up strongly towards SW Britain with settled and bright conditions in NW or North winds.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0
NAVGEM shows a deep Low pressure close to Southern Britain to start next week with rain and showers circulating around it affecting most areas. With a Northerly contingent to the wind some snow is likely on Northern hills at least as it remains a little on the chilly side.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0
ECM's operational tonight shows a breezy Westerly flow likely next week as Low pressure to the North of the UK brings rain at times for many, heaviest in the North and West while Southern and Eastern areas see rather longer drier periods in between more occasional rain and rather milder conditions later.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean charts show Low pressure to the NW and High to the South. The operational's deep Low just NW of Scotland is not well supported with the underlying pressure values shown indicating somewhat better conditions likely than what is shown on the operational but High pressure likely near Spain and Portugal some unsettled weather is possible over the UK at that range, especially towards the North.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream Ensemble group have reduced the amount of elevation in the axis of the flow through week 2 with the flow now shown to hold a position near to the UK and remain quite strong meaning Low pressure to the NW is allowed to dig further South through the British Isles at times with High pressure held further South over Europe or the Atlantic.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0
In Summary this evening there seems a reduction in confidence on the scheduled improvements next week. Tonight we have UKMO, GEM and NAVGEM looking far from moving towards the High pressure scenario shown yesterday. ECM and GFS is also watered down somewhat on it's fine weather projections of earlier and finds a half way house tonight with changeable conditions across the UK continuing though with not much rain in the South. It still seems the Atlantic is still showing solid strengths which continue to detain any intervention of any would be fine weather solutions and as I indicated yesterday I think we will see many more up and down model runs one way and another in the days to come before a clearer picture of where we are next week is known.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset