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The Beast from the East
25 February 2014 16:43:00

GEM also looks awful


Friday looks a horror show for southern areas following on from the heavy rain on thursday. Flooding problens could well return


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014022512/gem-0-60.png?12

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
25 February 2014 16:45:34

Improving picture on GFS with ridges being thrown up. GFS has been consistent with this

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Charmhills
25 February 2014 16:48:20


Hi all,


Here's my video update for today;


Korean Update For March And April


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Rest of March looking quite good, but signs of winter setting in for April!


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Cheers Gav.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
nsrobins
25 February 2014 16:58:02



Another one here who thinks the MetO have been dead on balls accurate on their short to medium term forecasts.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


To be fair, though, all they've had to do is paste the same outlook every week since mid December, and the weather has played ball by being unrelentingly the same 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Dare I say, one could almost say a monkey with a pen could have done the 30 dayers this winter


 


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


They might have read like that but that's more to do with the constant and relentless train of Atlantic weather rather than not bothering to change the text.
I know you didn't imply the MetOffice are no better than monkeys with pens but in the face of some scorching criticism from some angles including within this forum I feel oblidged to defend them - unless you would like to argue otherwise which you're entitled to do.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Saint Snow
25 February 2014 17:29:45




Another one here who thinks the MetO have been dead on balls accurate on their short to medium term forecasts.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


To be fair, though, all they've had to do is paste the same outlook every week since mid December, and the weather has played ball by being unrelentingly the same 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


Dare I say, one could almost say a monkey with a pen could have done the 30 dayers this winter


 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


They might have read like that but that's more to do with the constant and relentless train of Atlantic weather rather than not bothering to change the text.
I know you didn't imply the MetOffice are no better than monkeys with pens but in the face of some scorching criticism from some angles including within this forum I feel oblidged to defend them - unless you would like to argue otherwise which you're entitled to do.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


 



 


Mine was more a throwaway reference to one of RobK's posts a year or two ago when he equated the even more random & scattery than normal MO with something created by monkeys with pens.


 


I think.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Stormchaser
25 February 2014 18:24:34

Let's steer this back on topic please 


 


I'm looking at the ECM, UKMO and GFS 12z op runs for Friday and seeing no two solutions alike. That little system varies considerably in intensity, timing and track between the models, with ECM among the most vigorous.


Then, one day later,  new disturbance comes along, for which we see a vague trough from ECM right over the UK, but a notable storm slamming into the south from UKMO (a rare sight that; UKMO showing the most extreme scenario at just 96 hours with no other models in support). Meanwhile GFS sends a dissipating feature sliding by to our south.


 


Highly uncertain times until Sunday, and not much better thereafter, though with a fairy consistent signal for the high pressure over Europe to take on a more SW-NE orientation near to the UK, corresponding to the jet doing the same. That brings generally drier conditions to the SE and some mild wafts of air at times.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Gooner
25 February 2014 18:31:50


Hi all,


Here's my video update for today;


Korean Update For March And April


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Rest of March looking quite good, but signs of winter setting in for April!


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


You tease Gav

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
25 February 2014 18:33:57


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014022512/UW96-21.GIF?25-17


An horrendous UKMO. Not yet picked up by any other model. Lots of rain, thursday, Friday in the south and then this on Saturday Might even be cold enough for some snow over higher ground.


GFS much more benign. Lets hope its correct


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yes UKMO is awful, very unsettled


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014022512/UN96-21.GIF?25-18


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014022512/UN144-21.GIF?25-18


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
25 February 2014 18:36:14
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
25 February 2014 19:36:57
Now today's UKMO, ECMWF and GFS models predict some cold cool showery weather and longer spells of rain and hill sleet plus snow as well! at 48, 72 and 96 to t 144 hours ahead, while the next 48 hours it looks not too wet and rainy but showers 24h Wendnesday, with mild rain spell followed by cool and showery hill sleet or snow showers on Thursday.

Next Sunday and early part of Monday spell of heavy rain with hill sleet and snow! turns to wintry Showers Monday afternoon! with high pressure later briefly push from the SW.

Following Monday 3rd March(Edited). It looks set to turn Wet and mild with bands of heavy rain Tuesday p.m. More windy with Deep N Atlantic low pressure even Wednesday and Thursday next week, windy with also mild rain then cool chilly with blustery rain hail and sleet showers across the UK.

Very normal for Early Spring my oh my.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Hippydave
25 February 2014 20:47:43

With increasingly warm air in the South being drawn up towards the cold air over NE US it's hard to see how the irritatingly dominant jet will relent enough to allow more than the odd transient ridge to be thrown up 


If anything I'd have thought the greater contrast in temps available as things warm up to the South would give the jet a little more oomph, given the stability of the cold pool over US/Canada.


It's been an odd sort of winter model watching generally - usually the models over do the jet in FI and the HP just to the South ends up much further North etc. This year it's pretty much been the opposite with minor underestimates of the jet allowing FI glimpses of improvements ahead that never really materialise.


Might be a case of waiting for the warmer air to make progress Northwards although how that then interacts with the colder sea temps left by the persistant cold pool could be annoying too.


Rambling pessimism aside, unsettled is the theme of the models with any minor improvements in FI and to be taken with the usual shovel of (unused) salt. Certainly in the near term cold enough for yet more snow for the Scottish ski centres, although can't help thinking all that snow coupled with any kind of wet sustained warm could spell some trouble down the line.


Still the days are rapidly lengthening and the suns pleasant when it appears so things aren't all gloomy

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Stormchaser
25 February 2014 21:45:53

Underestimations of the jet, giving overestimated ridges of high pressure... now that sounds like summers 2007-2012!


Interesting to see it happening in winter instead. If only the weather had a memory and a sense of fair balance - we'd be on for lots of upgrading areas of high pressure this summer, which would be a fun experience for some of us.


 


Until then, it all looks rather uninspiring in the short to mid term, but at least it's not looking particularly nasty for the most part... although the UKMO 12z run for Saturday would be a bit wild in the south for a time.


Despite the lack of extremes, river levels may rebound upward a little by Sunday, depending on how the two secondary lows behave.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
25 February 2014 22:01:55

With increasingly warm air in the South being drawn up towards the cold air over NE US it's hard to see how the irritatingly dominant jet will relent enough to allow more than the odd transient ridge to be thrown up 


If anything I'd have thought the greater contrast in temps available as things warm up to the South would give the jet a little more oomph, given the stability of the cold pool over US/Canada.


It's been an odd sort of winter model watching generally - usually the models over do the jet in FI and the HP just to the South ends up much further North etc. This year it's pretty much been the opposite with minor underestimates of the jet allowing FI glimpses of improvements ahead that never really materialise.


Might be a case of waiting for the warmer air to make progress Northwards although how that then interacts with the colder sea temps left by the persistant cold pool could be annoying too.


Rambling pessimism aside, unsettled is the theme of the models with any minor improvements in FI and to be taken with the usual shovel of (unused) salt. Certainly in the near term cold enough for yet more snow for the Scottish ski centres, although can't help thinking all that snow coupled with any kind of wet sustained warm could spell some trouble down the line.


Still the days are rapidly lengthening and the suns pleasant when it appears so things aren't all gloomy

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 



I totally agree with the statements made here.

It looks Very much the Same Weather Pattern with High Pressure areas in North Pacific North USA Canada and over Greenland to N & NW Atlantic corner!, as Areas of Polar Vortex's stay Tracked in the North Central Mid Lattitudes with these we see moving East and SE in the USA, SW or W to the East and NE in Pacific and West to E NE in much of Central W & Mid N Atlantic and E NE Atlantic through SW and W NW to North Europe this direction looks set to dominate this Week and Next Week given how the UKMO, GFS and the ECMWF Models are handling run by run plenty more this set for this March first 7 days of it at least.

With Pockets of Mild 546 dam vs Cold 528 dam and Southerly positions of Arctic High Blocks pushing South the Cold arctic Air vs the Warm air meet it from the Tropical South, Very large Low P's, Vortexes and aided by both SW flows and West to NW flows in from the Arctic High's the Warm air SW flow likely to be in no luck as the Cold air on NW flow's energise the developing Low Pressures.

It does appear to show lot of cooling is taken place in Western Central N Atlantic, Cold High Pressure over E and NE Europe and Low's tracking East and SE from the N Atlantic as well as to the Norwegian Sea, it remain colder for Iceland so Spring snows abundant in NE USA SE Greenland Iceland and Mountains of Spain France UK and Italy being covered in plenty of ice and snow.

South USA seeing less cold and much more Spring like warmer weather with heavy Snow showers or snow in Great Lakes, but New York turned less cold and somewhat milder, Wet with both heavy rains and snows some showers of it or spells regularly crop in Seattle and NW California plus in West NW USA, to Central US, rain turns up for SE New York and SE USA at times Low Pressure with warm Tropical Thunder rains there.

Lots of exciting stuff this Winter but the Severe Floods have been a lot of misery and with the severe gales that lashed the UK this winter - what a relief it has been that UK weather in South plus SE at least has improved, but this Week heaviest rain been in West Central and North UK though for many areas last week weather was nice dry spell much relief to those facing surface and river floods.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Twister
26 February 2014 07:16:29

GFS suggesting a good inch of total precipitation for many of us over the next 72 hours, and significantly more over western hills


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014022600/nmmuk-25-72-0.png?26-06


 


In the longer unreliable term, hints of the Azores High wanting to merge and/or migrate with a Eurasian High from ECM and GFS outputs...


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014022600/ECM1-240.GIF?26-12


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022600/gfs-0-180.png?0


 

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KevBrads1
26 February 2014 08:00:27
It seems appropriate, unfortunately, that the last day of the meteorological winter should end with a low pressure tracking across the areas that were hit hardest this winter, flood wise. A final signature to what has been an atrocious winter.

It could push precipitation totals up so that we end with another "top 10" month.
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idj20
26 February 2014 08:07:32

Don't like the looks of the gale force winds at the rear end of Friday's compact low, that'll make it wild for a time again over the South West but hopefully it'll lose some of it's punch as the system moves eastwards over Southern England/English Channel during the course of the day. 
  It only has a centre pressure of 990 mb according to GFS and yet it is still going to give some of us a headache in the form of yet more unwanted wind and rain!

Folkestone Harbour. 
Gooner
26 February 2014 08:18:50
Gooner
26 February 2014 08:20:15

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn601.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6017.gif


Friday looks a cold raw day for most


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Charmhills
26 February 2014 09:53:49

Unsettled if not very unsettled at times with rain or even the threat of wet snow can't be ruled out on Friday across the Midlands.


FI looking changeable for now with the threat of more systems coming at us from the mighty Atlantic.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Gooner
26 February 2014 11:49:37


Unsettled if not very unsettled at times with rain or even the threat of wet snow can't be ruled out on Friday across the Midlands.


FI looking changeable for now with the threat of more systems coming at us from the mighty Atlantic.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Dont rule out snow potential at the start of next week either


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/02/26/basis06/ukuk/rart/14030300_2_2606.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1143.gif

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
26 February 2014 16:22:30

Wet Wet Wet make a comeback over the next week so it would seem. Some snow as well possible


The jet will push north again post day 7, so another chance for the Azores ridge to dry things out in the south


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
26 February 2014 17:07:30
Another Unsettled and wet but also wintry GFS 12z and UKMO 12z run as well.

It appears to be Chilly with Rain plus Hill Sleet and Snow Friday, Saturday and again Sunday Night or evening and through Monday and Tuesday a.m. Of next week, With moderate to strong west NW winds spells of heavy rain and plenty of showers to speak of once we get them as predicted.

More windy Low Pressure Cyclonic on both Wednesday and Thursday of next week with Azores High building back from South SW for a relief spell of dry sunny High Pressure for the Friday- GFS.

Now what a perfect start to Spring after a Snow free Winter 2013/14.

Eye Candy looks good but real situation about record rainfall to end Feb. 2014 a winter to go down as very wet, This Thursday spell of heavy rain also and Friday 28th Feb. 2014 could add to flood risks.

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Gooner
26 February 2014 18:09:19

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif


Again GFS gives us snow potential at the stat of next week


http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/02/26/basis12/ukuk/rart/14030300_2_2612.gif


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
26 February 2014 18:18:35

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014022612/UN48-21.GIF?26-18


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014022612/UN120-21.GIF?26-18


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014022612/UN144-21.GIF?26-18


Unsettled all the way fro UKMO, anyone wanting prolonged settled weather will be in for a wait I'm afraid


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
26 February 2014 18:39:05

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014022612/ECH1-168.GIF?26-0


ECM continues the unsettled theme

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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