Much more unsettled ECM unfortunately. Perhaps pressure will remain high enough for the south

Output is fairly benign imo. I admit chuckling to myself when I read that this week was going to be stormy from various sources... when it never seemed likely imo. This week's weather, for most of us, isn't that bad tbh.

What is funny is how the 2 day 'cool' snap from the N has even gone for a burton.  2013/14 can't even deliver that.

Looking a colder/unsettled type for the far N but the S should fair better. Nothing too cold or nothing too mild i.e a continuation of the bore fest zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

I saw snow a couple of years ago in May, its amazing to think that there is every possibility I may see more snow in spring this year than in winter. 

Good evening. Here is my Monday review of the midday outputs issued by the NWP for today Monday February 24th 2014 as featured on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm. I am now including links to the data from which each section of my report is compiled.

All models indicate an unsettled spell to come for the remainder of the week. Tonight sees Low pressure to the West of the UK spilling a trough steadily East over the UK with rain and strong winds for all overnight followed by a sunshine and heavy shower mix tomorrow in blustery, relatively mild winds. On Wednesday a weak ridge delivers a dry day for many as it crosses East before more Low pressure becomes complex to the North and then over the UK over Thursday and the lead up to the weekend with more rain and showers for most. Over the weekend the weather remains generally unsettled but with some dry weather about but with some showers as well in a NW wind and somewhat colder conditions.

GFS then shows a typical changeable regime developing under Westerly winds with some rain at times chiefly but not exclusively in the North. The South will see rather drier weather for longer with High pressure never far away from the South and temperatures generally will return closer to average though still rather chilly in the North between weather systems under any NW winds.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0

The GFS Ensembles show very changeable conditions tonight with Low pressure trending to come in from the West at times through Week 2 maintaining a changeable theme with rain at times and snow over the hills, chiefly in the North. The South is shown by many members to have some reasonable drier interludes in accordance with High pressure close to the South or SW at times though even here rain and wind occurs at times.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO closes today with next Sunday seeing a bank of Low pressure to the North and NW with a chilly Westerly flow carrying further rain at times in blustery winds with some snow at times on Northern hills.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=6&carte=1021

GEM also shows a Low pressure trough across the UK in a NW/SE axis. In essence the weather looks like staying changeable and showery well into next week with the air cold enough at times for some snow on northern hills.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0

The GEM Ensembles also maintain fairly changeable conditions with Low pressure areas crossing to the North of Britain next week keeping Westerly breezes going and rain at times, heaviest in the North in average temperatures.Late in the run there is support for High pressure to move up strongly towards SW Britain with settled and bright conditions in NW or North winds.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0

NAVGEM shows a deep Low pressure close to Southern Britain to start next week with rain and showers circulating around it affecting most areas. With a Northerly contingent to the wind some snow is likely on Northern hills at least as it remains a little on the chilly side.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0

ECM's operational tonight shows a breezy Westerly flow likely next week as Low pressure to the North of the UK brings rain at times for many, heaviest in the North and West while Southern and Eastern areas see rather longer drier periods in between more occasional rain and rather milder conditions later.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean charts show Low pressure to the NW and High to the South. The operational's deep Low just NW of Scotland is not well supported with the underlying pressure values shown indicating somewhat better conditions likely than what is shown on the operational but High pressure likely near Spain and Portugal some unsettled weather is possible over the UK at that range, especially towards the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream Ensemble group have reduced the amount of elevation in the axis of the flow through week 2 with the flow now shown to hold a position near to the UK and remain quite strong meaning Low pressure to the NW is allowed to dig further South through the British Isles at times with High pressure held further South over Europe or the Atlantic.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0

In Summary this evening there seems a reduction in confidence on the scheduled improvements next week. Tonight we have UKMO, GEM and NAVGEM looking far from moving towards the High pressure scenario shown yesterday. ECM and GFS is also watered down somewhat on it's fine weather projections of earlier and finds a half way house tonight with changeable conditions across the UK continuing though with not much rain in the South. It still seems the Atlantic is still showing solid strengths which continue to detain any intervention of any would be fine weather solutions and as I indicated yesterday I think we will see many more up and down model runs one way and another in the days to come before a clearer picture of where we are next week is known.

l

I wouldn't want any snow in April, let alone May. On the S coast, snow in March is also a waste of time.

Time to root for spring now

ENS showing an average outlook - backed up by the MetO extended 30 day forecast.

It won't be long before we all read Brian's BBQ Buzz write-up

Output is fairly benign imo. I admit chuckling to myself when I read that this week was going to be stormy from various sources... when it never seemed likely imo. This week's weather, for most of us, isn't that bad tbh.

What is funny is how the 2 day 'cool' snap from the N has even gone for a burton.  2013/14 can't even deliver that.

Looking a colder/unsettled type for the far N but the S should fair better. Nothing too cold or nothing too mild i.e a continuation of the bore fest zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Originally Posted by: snowish 

Hi Mike, just a thought of all the serious weather down south and all that. BUT what about up north with higher temps kicking in and the chances of avalanches in the mountain regions is or will all the relevant authourities be prepaired for the potential event sos mate just a concern

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 

Hi Paul. There is certainly plenty of snow on the Scottish mountains and indeed, the mountains of N England. Always an avalanche risk one can't stop the higher temps creeping in. I'd just be extra careful if in the mountains. PS: Norway routinely conduct controlled explosions to reduce the risk.

Hi mike thanks for the reply to that question. I meant to send to docmorg but who else could give a diffinitive answer on the chances of avalaches. thankyou I hope doc reads and replys if he has chance. I hope all is well with the family.

GFS just dreadful from here

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022418/gfsnh-0-276.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022418/gfsnh-0-300.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022418/gfsnh-0-324.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022418/gfsnh-0-348.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014022418/gfsnh-0-372.png?18

That sure is ropey - not good at all.

UKMO wants to bring at least a major chunk of the vortex down in towards the UK at 144hrs unlike the GFS and ECM at this point.  If not bringing anything particularly cold theron it would certainly keep the unsettled theme going for a time.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014022500/ECH1-96.GIF?25-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014022500/ECH1-120.GIF?25-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014022500/ECH1-192.GIF?25-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014022500/ECH1-240.GIF?25-12

Headline from ECM is unsettled

GFS again brings back the Azores ridge, but UKMO sends the jet well south and potentially very wet and cold. ECM somewhere in between with best of the dry spells in the south. GEM goes with UKMO

Closer to reality, Some good convection possible today. Already a pulse pushing into the Home Counties.

Potential for troublesome rain Thursday and Friday

Just looks like continuing unsettled or changeable with rain or showers at times with temps not far from average.

Chance of any settled weather in early March blown away by today's charts. Scuse the pun.

No further flooding hopefully. Thames at Bourne End and Marlow now falling steadily and will probably continue to do so proved rain is not incessant for days on end.

Much like the UKMO 30 day outlook which, and despite the criticism from some, has been unerringly consistant this season IMO.

I agree, I have looked back at the media thread, they have been very very good IMO

Meanwhile March 9th is wet

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

Large wet spike there Marcus

Must agree, its looking changeable for the forseeable and the MetO have been pretty good this Winter with their 30 day updates. They are always on a hiding to nothing- for lets be honest who really knows what the overall weather pattern will be in 30 days? I, for one, haven't a clue

Have to agree. We can't really fault the MetO's forecasts in any way over the last two and a half months.

To be fair, though, all they've had to do is paste the same outlook every week since mid December, and the weather has played ball by being unrelentingly the same 

Hi all,

Here's my video update for today;

Korean Update For March And April

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Rest of March looking quite good, but signs of winter setting in for April!

Dare I say, one could almost say a monkey with a pen could have done the 30 dayers this winter

Yeh, theres always an air of "what if" when the express says "90 days of Snowy doom on the way!!"  in some ways im sad it hasnt been a white winter...

in others im really happy the poor style of journalism has been exposed.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014022512/UW96-21.GIF?25-17

An horrendous UKMO. Not yet picked up by any other model. Lots of rain, thursday, Friday in the south and then this on Saturday Might even be cold enough for some snow over higher ground.

GFS much more benign. Lets hope its correct