With increasingly warm air in the South being drawn up towards the cold air over NE US it's hard to see how the irritatingly dominant jet will relent enough to allow more than the odd transient ridge to be thrown up
If anything I'd have thought the greater contrast in temps available as things warm up to the South would give the jet a little more oomph, given the stability of the cold pool over US/Canada.
It's been an odd sort of winter model watching generally - usually the models over do the jet in FI and the HP just to the South ends up much further North etc. This year it's pretty much been the opposite with minor underestimates of the jet allowing FI glimpses of improvements ahead that never really materialise.
Might be a case of waiting for the warmer air to make progress Northwards although how that then interacts with the colder sea temps left by the persistant cold pool could be annoying too.
Rambling pessimism aside, unsettled is the theme of the models with any minor improvements in FI and to be taken with the usual shovel of (unused) salt. Certainly in the near term cold enough for yet more snow for the Scottish ski centres, although can't help thinking all that snow coupled with any kind of wet sustained warm could spell some trouble down the line.
Still the days are rapidly lengthening and the suns pleasant when it appears so things aren't all gloomy
Originally Posted by: Hippydave