theweatheroutlook

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glenogle
08 March 2014 03:54:53

Somewhere could pull off 17-18c out of this.UserPostedImageUserPostedImage
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014030712/51-778UK.GIF?07-12

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


Only 7 or 8 up in Edinburgh on that chart!

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


That's almost T-Shirt Weather up here, you'll get used to it eventually


After next weeks settled weather, it would be nice to get a cool down/top up of fresh snow for the ski areas.


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/00_312_naptypemslp.png?cb=680


 

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
nsrobins
08 March 2014 07:08:59

The sort of early Spring cold shot suggested by GFS in recent days is actually quite typical, and more so after a mild winter IMO.
I almost expect some snow - the first snow since last March - falling around the daffs and blossom in a few weeks. Nature has a clever way of averaging things out over a long period.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Sevendust
08 March 2014 07:42:30


The sort of early Spring cold shot suggested by GFS in recent days is actually quite typical, and more so after a mild winter IMO.
I almost expect some snow - the first snow since last March - falling around the daffs and blossom in a few weeks. Nature has a clever way of averaging things out over a long period.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


We're due a drought then

Gooner
08 March 2014 07:52:17


The sort of early Spring cold shot suggested by GFS in recent days is actually quite typical, and more so after a mild winter IMO.
I almost expect some snow - the first snow since last March - falling around the daffs and blossom in a few weeks. Nature has a clever way of averaging things out over a long period.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png


Many runs showing some much cooler weather after the 17th

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Steam Fog
08 March 2014 08:17:24
High pressure and mild weather looks in place for some time before colder weather eventually arrives on the 18th.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2862/ECM1-240_fac8.GIF 

Met Office had 16.9 as the max yesterday. And the magic 18 looks on for some point this weekend.

doctormog
08 March 2014 08:32:03
We're still waiting for the mild and settled conditions up here but after the next day or so the following week is looking largely fine, settled and generally rather pleasant. I hope that doesn't change!

Beyond then there are signs of cooler and more unsettled conditions (but as that is deep in FI I will ignore it and hope it goes away [sn_bsmil] )
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Phil G
08 March 2014 09:02:51
Charmhills
08 March 2014 09:27:44

We're still waiting for the mild and settled conditions up here but after the next day or so the following week is looking largely fine, settled and generally rather pleasant. I hope that doesn't change! Beyond then there are signs of cooler and more unsettled conditions (but as that is deep in FI I will ignore it and hope it goes away [sn_bsmil] )

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Perfect for skiing Michael.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Sevendust
08 March 2014 09:48:46



The sort of early Spring cold shot suggested by GFS in recent days is actually quite typical, and more so after a mild winter IMO.
I almost expect some snow - the first snow since last March - falling around the daffs and blossom in a few weeks. Nature has a clever way of averaging things out over a long period.


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png


Many runs showing some much cooler weather after the 17th


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Well it is certainly showing but is very FI. The ECM T240 chart looks ready for an Arctic incursion further down the line but, as ever, we have to rely on GFS to show those distant charts.


It would be no surprise at all if we got an Arctic outbreak around that time, in fact I would say it was quite normal in a British spring

Essan
08 March 2014 10:01:43


I almost expect some snow - the first snow since last March - falling around the daffs and blossom in a few weeks.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



I'm not sure the daffs and blossom will still be around in a few weeks time!   Never known everything out so early.

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
doctormog
08 March 2014 10:09:11


I almost expect some snow - the first snow since last March - falling around thedaffs and blossom in a few weeks.

Originally Posted by: Essan 



I'm not sure the daffs and blossom will still be around in a few weeks time! Never known everything out so early.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



My snowdrops were out really early but the daffy are just starting to emerge now, probably a bit early but not too extreme. The colder conditions shown for the second half of the month would not be unusual but could, with any sharp frosts, cause problems with growth of plants etc.

Anyway, an apology from me in advance, if the upcoming week, spring and summer all go horribly wrong it is probably my fault...I have just bought a new barbecue. 😊
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Sevendust
08 March 2014 10:47:59

I almost expect some snow - the first snow since last March - falling around thedaffs and blossom in a few weeks.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I'm not sure the daffs and blossom will still be around in a few weeks time! Never known everything out so early.

Originally Posted by: Essan 

My snowdrops were out really early but the daffy are just starting to emerge now, probably a bit early but not too extreme. The colder conditions shown for the second half of the month would not be unusual but could, with any sharp frosts, cause problems with growth of plants etc. Anyway, an apology from me in advance, if the upcoming week, spring and summer all go horribly wrong it is probably my fault...I have just bought a new barbecue. 😊

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Charmhills
08 March 2014 10:53:42


I almost expect some snow - the first snow since last March - falling around thedaffs and blossom in a few weeks.

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

I'm not sure the daffs and blossom will still be around in a few weeks time! Never known everything out so early.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

My snowdrops were out really early but the daffy are just starting to emerge now, probably a bit early but not too extreme. The colder conditions shown for the second half of the month would not be unusual but could, with any sharp frosts, cause problems with growth of plants etc. Anyway, an apology from me in advance, if the upcoming week, spring and summer all go horribly wrong it is probably my fault...I have just bought a new barbecue. 😊

Originally Posted by: Essan 



Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
picturesareme
08 March 2014 10:58:23
How serious a threat is this possible northerly? I ask because I have a range of chilli plants that can not stand frost.

A northerly in late march normally just means showers - I've always believed "April showers" start a couple weeks early "down south" and end early.

Showers and highs of 9C-10C with sunny spells intermittent are ok for plants in grow houses at this time if year.
Steam Fog
08 March 2014 11:01:40
Cooler weather from the 17th or 18th has been cropping up quite a bit and looks like it would feel like quite a contrast to the milder weather forecast beforehand.
some faraway beach
08 March 2014 14:54:44

How serious a threat is this possible northerly? I ask because I have a range of chilli plants that can not stand frost. A northerly in late march normally just means showers - I've always believed "April showers" start a couple weeks early "down south" and end early. Showers and highs of 9C-10C with sunny spells intermittent are ok for plants in grow houses at this time if year.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


This cool down has been ahown remarkably consistently in the GFS ensemble for several days now. My peppers are staying firmly indoors for the time being. Winter 1999-2000 was snowless, mild and forgetable, until snow fell here in early April.

2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Quantum
08 March 2014 16:03:53

The exceptionally cold air over canada is showing some signs of transfering west to greenland. Interestingly I think the coldest wind direction would be a northwesterly rather than a Northerly or North easterly. It could produce some quite unusual weather patterns with places like devon and cornwall at risk of seeing late wintriness. Just a possibility though.


http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140308/06/192/h850t850eu.png


A chart like this is very unusual to see such a cold pool in the midatlantic so far south. A testament to how repetitive this winter has been. 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
08 March 2014 16:56:35

12Z has a decent northerly plunge with snow showers to exposed coastal regions.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
David M Porter
08 March 2014 17:07:52

I almost expect some snow - the first snow since last March - falling around thedaffs and blossom in a few weeks.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I'm not sure the daffs and blossom will still be around in a few weeks time! Never known everything out so early.

Originally Posted by: Essan 

My snowdrops were out really early but the daffy are just starting to emerge now, probably a bit early but not too extreme. The colder conditions shown for the second half of the month would not be unusual but could, with any sharp frosts, cause problems with growth of plants etc. Anyway, an apology from me in advance, if the upcoming week, spring and summer all go horribly wrong it is probably my fault...I have just bought a new barbecue. 😊

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


That's the kiss of death for sure!


 


Only kidding, Doc.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gavin P
08 March 2014 18:43:12

Cooler weather from the 17th or 18th has been cropping up quite a bit and looks like it would feel like quite a contrast to the milder weather forecast beforehand.

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 


Is all looking rather March 2008'ish at the moment, IMO.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Ally Pally Snowman
08 March 2014 19:14:14
The ECM 12z keeps pressure high in the south until at least day 10.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html 
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
08 March 2014 19:19:35


Cooler weather from the 17th or 18th has been cropping up quite a bit and looks like it would feel like quite a contrast to the milder weather forecast beforehand.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Is all looking rather March 2008'ish at the moment, IMO.


Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 


The cold spell that commenced in the second half of that March was fairly notable. It wasn't on the same scale as what we saw last March but the 2008 early spring cold spell lasted until just after mid-April I seem to remember, during which time we had snow here on at least a couple of occasions.


On topic: There does seem to be something of an indication from the models of slightly less low heights developing over Canada as we go firther into March compared to what has been in place there for months now. The GFS 288hr chart a pretty potent northerly blast. Too far out at the moment to be taken seriously, but if that were to come off it would be something of a turn-up after the winter we have had.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gooner
08 March 2014 19:48:27

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png


still on course for a good cooling off from the 17th

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Stormchaser
08 March 2014 19:50:32

With GFS refusing to show high latitude blocking taking hold, instead favouring a temporary colder spell, it seems CFS may finally have backed down in terms of the prospects for the second half of March:


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014030806/run1m/cfs-0-510.png?06


Warning: do not take the above chart at all seriously - this is all about the broad scale signal, which has moved towards conditions remaining more mobile to our NW.


ECM really goes that way tonight, giving us something to keep an eye on - we might just get more settled weather instead, albeit most likely of a colder flavour for a time at least.


 


Just for fun, I glanced over the rest of that CFS run (finishes 22nd April) and it showed a reasonable April, the first I can recall seeing modelled in quite a long time! Bound to change around massively as the weeks run by, of course!

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Keep Calm and Forecast On
Hungry Tiger
08 March 2014 20:34:47


With GFS refusing to show high latitude blocking taking hold, instead favouring a temporary colder spell, it seems CFS may finally have backed down in terms of the prospects for the second half of March:


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014030806/run1m/cfs-0-510.png?06


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


I know what you mean - but that is an OK chart there.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


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