A while ago (during the rain fest) we were continually looking at improved weather at that time frame that never arrived.

I haven't really been following the models much lately. I thought there was meant to be a sudden change to cold and unsettled after this weekend. Has that all been dropped now? A quick glance at the ensembles still shows a major change on the way

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Hi all,

Have got a longer range model based update for you tody;

April To June On South Korean Model

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

All fun speculation for a Thursday afternoon.

Although I can't recall the first few years of my life (strangely enough!) it looks like the first winter without a single flake of snow falling where I am, let alone any coverage on the ground, no matter how small.

In that respect, therefore, the models seem to be showing me a one in fifty year event, with no white stuff in the offing no matter how transient.

Remarkable.

Well, yes, but I had hoped that the gist of my post was clear enough

I know what you mean Simon - I feel the same - It is amazing. I think back to the famous mild winters of the 1970s especially 1974/75 - but snow came in April.

The great mild winters of the 1990s - 1998 was the last winter I remember the Fuchsias and geraniums surviving a winter outdoors - One snow shower did materialise in march though.

We're not entirely out of the woods yet though - but we're sure getting close.

With soil temperatures way above normal my home area round here is now resembling a time lapse photographers dream with snow drops, crocuses, daffodils, May blossom hawthorn blossom and now other buds all coming out or out already all at once.

Anyway enough of that   OT observation.

Whilst I can't be 100% sure, I believe I've lived through a handful of winters where no snow has fallen IMBY (primarily late 80's/90's). In contrast, this 'winter' (and I'm including November in this), I've seen two temporary snowfalls, both leaving a thin dusting on selected surfaces.

I too have not seen any snow for a year, which is notable, but I have bolded Gavin's point as I (although I may be mistaken as I don't keep records) seem to recall a couple of years in the 90's-00's where no snow fell in the 'winter' proper however a snowless winter spell (the 6 coldest months) was prevented by a late snowfall in March, and maybe in one case just at the start of April. 

On the models themselves, there seems to be reasonable agreement of high pressure staying in charge, with one small blip via a very shallow low diving South-East  on the weekend of the 21st-23rd.

ECM has it on the 23rd: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014031300/ECM1-240.GIF?13-12

while GFS has the 21st: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014031306/gfs-0-204.png?6

In both cases, it seems a good bet that high pressure will build again once it passes. 

We've lived here since the early 70's and never had a snowless Winter. At the very least we have had a thin dusting on the ground some point between Dec-Feb. 

12z ensembles point to a cooler spell as approach the 20th and a fall in pressure most especially the further north you are.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Aberdeen_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

Nasty GFS 12z op run - really cranks up the Atlantic, although it does deliver a northerly with some snow along the way.

UKMO and ECM less energetic, but still showing an increased Atlantic influence from around the middle of next week.

Given recent model flailing, it's probably not worth reading too much into it at the moment.

Thanks Gavin, all fun speculation as you say so in a nutshell a cool and wet April, summery May and a cool and wet June? Though I have to question some of these models as most of them totally got the winter wrong and Autumn too so you do have to wonder. Still fun none the less and appreciate the video.

Back to the present and does look like some sort of breakdown is on the cards for the latter part of next week, still undecided if it's a northerly or just standard wet and windy fare so more runs needed.

It's actually starting to look a bit stormy for Wed-Fri next week based on ECM, GFS and GEM. It's down to a secondary low that bombs out close to our NW on Wednesday, flattening our ridge and bringing some strong winds and heavy rain.

The gate is then open for a second and possibly third system to move through, before it appears that high pressure will be encouraged to ridge back in from the SW in some form or other, this being a response to some of the PV energy drifting back to Canada...

The models are showing two or three circulations in the PV - it is split up as we usually see at this time of year in response to the seasonal stratospheric warming (the 'final warming' that occurs most years), but it's still really quite strong overall - those LRFs that predict an April of Arctic blocking must be depending on a dramatic turnaround up there... but that sort of thing can and does happen, so we can't write off their projections at this stage.

Sings of it becoming up changeable if not unsettled with time by the looks of things.

Next weekend onwards it looks quite contrasting

From cold from the Arctic to warmth from Africa 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014031412/gfs-1-192.png?12

modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014031412/gfs-1-384.png?12?12 

Flippin' 'eck, just what is going on with the models tonight...

In the red corner, we have GFS and GEM continuing with a strong Atlantic influence in the mid-term, windy with some rain in the north and a bit for the south too - though not much.

In the blue corner, we find ECM and UKMO, showing a much slower upstream Atlantic flow, resulting in the energy not phasing and a more amplified pattern by day 6, with a nice ridge across the UK, a warm one in the case of ECM in particular.

Realistically, the only sensible response if sked about the weather beyond Tuesday next week... is a heavy shrug 

We need more info - how much more of this nice weather do we have.

6 Days hence we have a change.....

A fair bit more amplification on the GFS 18z op run - the differences to the 12z are a bit crazy really.

The model still has a very strong jet streak and phasing energy brining an abrupt end to the fine weather, though.

Looking upstream, there seems to be no end to those immense Arctic blasts across the eastern U.S:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/48_mslp850_arc.png?cb=653

That's for this Sunday... at the same time, the UK will be seeing temperatures some 5*C above average in places.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/192_mslp850_arc.png?cb=653

A vicious Noreaster for the East U.S. in 8 days time.

It is interesting how the downstream pattern has shifted compared to during the winter, largely due to the Atlantic jet not being as intense across the mid-Atlantic, which is likely at least in part a response to the mid-Atlantic around 50*N having been cooled substantially by the frequent storms, reducing the temperature gradient:

http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/anom_plot.html?i=34&j=2

(Use the arrows to pan across to the relevant region)

GFS seems determined to ramp up the jet for a time at least, but then, the model sees a way out within the week that follows.

I do wonder what sort of impacts that SST pattern could have on our weather during the rest of spring and possibly into summer as well. A weaker jet could leave us high and dry for long periods... or it could bring slow moving troughs across the UK, if we're unlucky.

From recent model output in the longer term (but not that long in the case of ECM), I'm starting to see a possible route to a cool and showery April, such as is predicted by a few LRFs; there are signs of the Atlantic calming down a little, with the mid-latitude blocking gaining some latitude as a result. Troughing could then undercut as the jet meanders south.

On the other hand, we could get lucky, with enough residual energy to the NW to keep the blocking across the UK. The trends of recent times lean in favour of this - though there has to come a time when the balance tips the other way, so I'm not holding out too much hope for that right now.

Just in case - make the very most of this weekend if you have the nice weather 

Excellent piece of analysis there James. 

Very well put.

Sentiment echoed

Seems to be stand off between GFS and ECM. UKMO looks to side with GFS this morning

The models are up and down like a jack in a box.

UKMO isn't siding with either model - in fact it's considerably quicker with the Atlantic progression than GFS, let alone ECM.

In fact it's a case of total confusion this morning. ECM is out on a limb with a more amplified pattern and high pressure tending to stick around apart from a brief blip, while GFS is changeable, but stormy for a time, and UKMO develops a full-on Atlantic train, but without the strong storm system that GFS develops.

It seems to be that the timing of a surge in the jet stream, and how it interacts with the Atlantic storm systems, is exceptionally uncertain for one reason or another... so all we can do is wait and wonder!