If we could get a warm and moist low level flow from the SE, a drier and colder mid-level flow from the west and a cold, dry upper level flow from the northeast, we'd be mimicing the setup that produces supercells and tornados in the U.S.

Not nearly as extreme, of course, but it would be interesting to say the least 

...and no, I'm not forecasting an outbreak of violent storms and tornados... just going for a bit of extreme speculation, for fun 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014032400/ECM100-120.GIF?24-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014032400/ECM100-240.GIF?24-12

The 850hPa anomalies across parts of Scandinavia flip from +8 to -8*C in the space of 5 days.

Not the most dramatic of changes (it can be much quicker), but a sizeable one!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014032400/ECH100-0.GIF?24-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014032400/ECH100-240.GIF?24-12

Much of the U.S. is shown to warm up big-time over the next 10 days, while the West Coast finally sees an end to the largely above average temperatures.

This all reflects the first major hemisphere-wide pattern change to occur in months. With any luck, the new pattern won't stick us under troughing for most of 3 and a half months like the last one did 

And also low level cold air advection could trigger ice storms as a possibility, rare for the UK. 

GEM0Z is one to check out too, the coldest core of uppers in the NH gets wrapped up in a low close to the UK. 

Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

Northern Blocking For April?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Certainly good signs of northern blocking, but will it all align right to bring us a late cold/wintry snap?

Cheers Gav.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014032412/ECH1-192.GIF?24-0

Big cold push from the NE by ECM

Now I feel sorry for my old school teachers that had to deal with me turning up to the lesson 55 minutes late with a smile on my face saying "sorry I'm late miss". 

Right then, who is going to break the bad news to MattyH?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014032412/ECH1-240.GIF?24-0

My birthday could be chilly

Meanwhile, GFS ensembles in good agreement for above ave 850hPa temps from the 29th onwards

For the sake of balance, even at T240 the -5'c 850 hpa line has barely reached the UK.

There appears to an element of ramping creeping in which is related to fairly deep FI by the usual suspects.

If we get to around T120 and that scenario I might be interested but at that time we have a mild push from the SE on ECM.

The trend to northern blocking remains but it could manifest a number of set-ups down the line 

5 days of temperatures potentially in the mid to high teens widely across the south. That's what ECM offers, before the chilly flow on day 10.

There has been an overall shift in the direction of some warmth on a SE flow, at least for England. ECM actually does a better job of it than GFS, as does UKMO.

Given how lucky we would then have to be to avoid seeing a UK trough setup at some point during the period of high latitude blocking, I'm looking on it as a pre-emtive counteraction; a spell of nice weather to balance against some unpleasant weather thereafter.

That's not to say that such is destined to unfold - we could be lucky after all. The point is that by expecting it to go markedly downhill afterwards, it will be all the more satisfying if it doesn't  

So with that in mind, I really hope that tonight's trend for days 5-9 holds  

Why would a purely model related observation drive someone out of a thread. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.

Anyway, back OT, and ECM has backed off the cold scenario which will please you

GEM in FI going for yesterday's ECM though:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

GEM is often prone to this though in going for colder conditions only to back off, however still a long way off so no doubt there will be some further changes before we reach that time frame. At the moment based on the ECM / GFS it does look like the cold will stay in Europe and we will be warmer than currently.

The problem remains that the intitial cold air from this last weekend is being modified as warmer air and ambient conditions erode it. The trend in mid-term is for a more SE input and hence warmer uppers. If, and its a big one, cold air can feed down into eastern Europe from the north then there may be some reasonable cold to tap into. 

Additional factors are that SST's are significantly higher than this time last year so modification will be greater and these events are still way into FI if they should occur

On Wednesday night, dew points are shown by GFS to fall to around freezing, with a bit of precipitation about giving some sleet and snow in places... EURO-4 is close for midnight, but not quite there, so I wouldn't take it too seriously - a wintry mix is possible, but the vast majority of people are unlikely to notice it unless for some reason they were up lampost watching!

By contrast, we're still on course for a decent sort of weekend for England and Wales, in fact GFS has edged towards ECM in showing slightly higher 850hPa temps and 2m temps widely into the mid teens Saturday, high teens Sunday 

This carries further on the GFS 06z op, all the way to the end of higher-res, in fact it warms up a bit more too.

The 00z GFS op was similar for Mon-Tue, but Saturday saw a frontal system far east enough to hold back the warm-up for the west until Sunday, with the far SW struggling to see much of a rise until Monday.

Both op runs are not bad through FI, with some unsettled spells but plenty of dry weather too, and temperatures mostly (the exception being a few days on the 00z) above average 

The ECM 00z op tells a similar story to the 06z GFS op, but with more of an emphasis on unsettled by day 10, with the chance of some reasonable convective activity 

Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

April Blocking And South Korean Model Update;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Quite a lot to talk about today.

Thanks Gavin.. A start on the cool side...

Cheers Gav.

A bit mixed than.

Well the head of the Met Office has predicted that the future UK climate will consist of "all sorts". Hmm. Delicious. I'm hoping for lots of those round, yellow ones with the liquorice centre.

That's not new really. Its always like that.