Check out Wick on the temp tab.... currently -25C the cold really digging down tonight 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk

At least it will be (mostly) dry!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

It's looking like a cool and relatively dry period of weather coming up. Hopefully High Pressure will become established over the UK in time to give the daytimes a springlike feel in lights winds and any sunshine. 

So for next week in the south, it's looking like below average temperatures (but perhaps not by all that much), a few slow moving but fairly weak frontal systems, and occasional showers.

Further north, its looking more settled from Tuesday, and potentially quite pleasant in places with light winds - but that depends on how clear the skies are, of course!

The setup is a fairly common occurence in March, with easterlies nearly always on the menu at some point or other.

What may happen afterwards is starting to catch my eye a bit now - the models are being consistent in signalling a marked drop in pressure across the Mediterranean and Spain in particular, with instabillity across N. Africa generating a trough laden with warm air, which then drifts up across the Med. and stalls out.

That setup could generate quite interesting conditions across the south of the UK in particular, with a generally warm airflow and above average temperatures, but also areas of instabillity having some influence at times at least, generating some convective activity with the chance of continental imports.

Having said that, past experience points towards the trough being corrected to a weaker feature, with the UK high and dry - in fact we sometimes get prolonged spells of stable conditions from that sort of setup.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

JMA Friday + April-May Look-Ahead;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

After a very warm start to 2014 I think we may be entering a cooler phase?

Thanks Gavin

That's what Rooney earns in 4 days , so it seems to be a reasonable salary

Cheers Gav.

Thats one of the straightest lines you're ever drown on the temp graph.

Cheers as always Gavin 

I hope you don't mind if I quickly sum up my own, slightly different angle on things:

The JMA ensemble mean clearly has more members placing low pressure right by the UK rather than to the south and NW with a ridge in between. Looking at the ECM 00z ensemble mean, the low anomaly on day 10 is more focused to the NW with a ridge close to our east. The GEFS 12z mean is very similar for the same timeframe.

They all show a fair risk of seeing some Atlantic influence, but ECM and GFS leave room for ridges from the SW to move across the UK and continue on eastward - this is being reflected in recent operational runs.

I think that the orientation of low and high pressure anomalies on the ensemble means, even the JMA, could allow us to be on the warmer side of the jet at times, feeling the effects of either tropical maritime or continental air. CFS looks a bit bonkers, and for some reason the chart you have differs greatly from this:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd1.gif

...which shows a tendency for Atlantic westerlies, often rather unsettled but not too chilly out of the rain, with transient settled spells possible as ridges move through from the SW between low pressure systems.

The overall trend across the models does seem to be towards the mean trough locating somewhere south of Greenland or Iceland, with high pressure not far to the east of the UK. This signals near average temperatures and changeable conditions.

Finally, a comment on the May outlook - this time the chart you show is similar to my usual source:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd2.gif

...but to me it shows a setup that could place the UK on the warm side of the jet stream, with a good chance of seeing imports of warm air drawn up from the Mediterranean. Low pressure areas would likely track across the UK at times, so we'd see some rather cool spells too - but overall I'm seeing a slightly warmer than average month there.

I figure I may as well have a copy of this both here and in the seasonal thread, given how quiet both are at the moment 

I don't post in here very often and I'm sorry this is off topic but just wanted to make sure you (and others) aware that the Met Office operates as a trading fund and has to return a profit through the selling of services on a commercial basis. 

When it comes to the CE salary you get what you pay for and to find some suitable I expect they are having to compete against the pay scales of that of private commercial companies in order to get someone who will continue to deliver a growth in revenue and operating profit.

The time you take off the £76,127 in income tax and £7,231 in national insurance your only really talking about £115k. For a job (by the very nature of being CE) with high stress, working 60-70 hours a week, being on call at all times, in the public eye, I'm not sure I'd want to do it! The adverts been out for over a year now. 

Interesting 06z for coldies with the high better positioned and retrogressing. We had no snow this winter, but perhaps we might see a flake in April!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014032206/gfsnh-0-276.png?6

Day before my birthday, now that would be funny

Good heavens.

Thankfully, FI never verifies so Marcus you will hopefully be out of luck for your birthday and we will have something slightly more springlike.

Interesting 06z for coldies with the high better positioned and retrogressing. We had no snow this winter, but perhaps we might see a flake in April!

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014032206/gfsnh-0-276.png?6  Day before my birthday, now that would be funny

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Good heavens.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Thankfully the 12z is (not surprisingly) totally different with a warm south easterly at the same time.... Thankfully, FI never verifies so Marcus you will hopefully be out of luck for your birthday and we will have something slightly more springlike.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

So what you're saying is that there won't be a warm south easterly either?💤 😝

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Yes I'm saying we won't get either.

With the broad-scale signal from long range models generally being for the jet to track well south of normal, but with higher than average heights in close proximity to the E and NE, or over more northern parts of the UK, we are likely to walk a fine line between decent weather and miserable weather.

The GFS 12z holds the Atlantic far enough W and SW to leave us in good shape; temps in the mid-teens by day, a few showers but nothing too bothersome, and at times unusually slack conditions which would allow it to feel very nice in any sunshine.

This is far more in line with the ECM 00z operational output than the 00z and 06z GFS op runs were. So it seems that there is a consensus for the UK to get lucky... but it's still at far enough range that a shift in the mean trough location towards us is very much a possibility - cross your fingers and hope that we don't see such a thing... unless you like unsettled conditions in April, that is!

Obviously I wouldn't mind if the trough got close to our west/southwest at times and generated some decent convective setups  ... but ideally they would need to occur with long enough dry intervals in between to prevent flooding issues!

The beast lurking to the east but very late in the season. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014032212/ECM0-240.GIF?22-0

Which leaves one asking where was it during the last three months when many people wanted it to make an appearance!