Hi all,
Here's today's video update;
JMA Friday + April-May Look-Ahead;
http://www.gavsweathervids.com
After a very warm start to 2014 I think we may be entering a cooler phase?
Originally Posted by: Gavin P
Cheers as always Gavin
I hope you don't mind if I quickly sum up my own, slightly different angle on things:
The JMA ensemble mean clearly has more members placing low pressure right by the UK rather than to the south and NW with a ridge in between. Looking at the ECM 00z ensemble mean, the low anomaly on day 10 is more focused to the NW with a ridge close to our east. The GEFS 12z mean is very similar for the same timeframe.
They all show a fair risk of seeing some Atlantic influence, but ECM and GFS leave room for ridges from the SW to move across the UK and continue on eastward - this is being reflected in recent operational runs.
I think that the orientation of low and high pressure anomalies on the ensemble means, even the JMA, could allow us to be on the warmer side of the jet at times, feeling the effects of either tropical maritime or continental air. CFS looks a bit bonkers, and for some reason the chart you have differs greatly from this:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd1.gif
...which shows a tendency for Atlantic westerlies, often rather unsettled but not too chilly out of the rain, with transient settled spells possible as ridges move through from the SW between low pressure systems.
The overall trend across the models does seem to be towards the mean trough locating somewhere south of Greenland or Iceland, with high pressure not far to the east of the UK. This signals near average temperatures and changeable conditions.
Finally, a comment on the May outlook - this time the chart you show is similar to my usual source:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd2.gif
...but to me it shows a setup that could place the UK on the warm side of the jet stream, with a good chance of seeing imports of warm air drawn up from the Mediterranean. Low pressure areas would likely track across the UK at times, so we'd see some rather cool spells too - but overall I'm seeing a slightly warmer than average month there.
I figure I may as well have a copy of this both here and in the seasonal thread, given how quiet both are at the moment
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