HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY TUESDAY JULY 15TH 2014.
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Winds will be slack Westerly over the UK today as a trough moves NE over NW areas tonight and slowly SE tomorrow.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Warm for many areas with occasional rain at times especially in the NW following the showery period this weekend.
GFS The GFS operational today shows cooler weather following a thundery period at the end of the week and through the weekend. Cooler Westerly winds with sunshine and showers leads on into a fairly unsettled operational run this morning with further troughs and Low pressure in the vicinity of the UK for the remainder of the run with rain and showers at times with temperatures returning to near average. The GFS Ensembles also show changeable conditions maintained over the UK next week and beyond but with more chance of dry weather from High pressure to the SW of the UK over the South at times while Northern Britain see more Low pressure to the North influencing conditions there.
UKMO UKMO this morning closes it's run with a developing ridge across the UK replacing the thundery and showery weekend. Things look like turning cooler and fresher for a time.
GEM The GEM operational today is unimpressive if it's fine weather your after. Low pressure developing this weekend with thundery showers opens the door to more slow moving UK based Low pressure next week with showers or outbreaks of rain mixed with some brighter spells in temperatures returning close to the seasonal normal for many next week.
NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows cooler Westerly winds next week following the heat and thundery plume at the start of the weekend. High pressure remains fairly close to Southern Britain and this could feed some warmer and drier conditions into Southern and Eastern Britain at times.
ECM The ECM operational still flies the flag for a good week of fine and sunny conditions next week as it stands alone in building pressure strongly enough just to the NE of the UK and linking SW over the UK resulting in sunny and increasingly warm conditions developing again for many through next week following the sultry and thundery period at the start of this weekend.
MY THOUGHTS Quite a mixed bag between the output this morning and not much of it very good for fine weather fans. However, there are some encouraging signals still shown by ECM in particular. The differences begin as soon as this weekend in how quickly the Low pressure to the West bringing the thundery weather this weekend moves away and allows pressure to build again behind. Pressure building to the NE is also a factor with many output runs placing this too far North and East and as a result trapping Low pressure over or close to the UK having trundled in from the West off the Atlantic. The ECM operational has a clean break from Low pressure as this Northern High builds and links to our High to the SW bringing a steady return to fine and warm conditions for many next week. Which is right? Well despite being in the minority I feel that ECM won't be far off the money with better weather developing at least for many Southern and Eastern areas next week following a volatile and showery weekend to come. Pressure from Atlantic depressions could be too strong for the High pressure to the NE to withstand or prevent Low pressure near Iceland to affect more Northern and Western parts of the British Isles at times but even here I think some of the output over does the extent of these systems. As always of course more runs are needed and time alone will tell if my theory is correct or not.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY