Sounds OK to me.

 

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     Have a look at thishttp://www.nws.noaa.gov/ 

GFS and ECM 12z's look good for next week. Temps low to mid 20s easily for England and Wales, rain confined mostly to the far NW, warmest in the SE when pressure becomes quite slack later next week. GEM goes off on one a bit after t+144, and I don't buy its evolution to be honest.

The key is keeping that troublesome low pressure to the north as it trundles eastwards, rather than a slide down to bring us the cooler unsettled conditions. The further north it is the less it affects our warm, settled pattern, with the high pressure looking to rebuild behind.

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WRF model showing a cool down on Sunday for most of us, but still looking very warm for the South East.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014072412/nmmuk-0-72-0.png?24-19

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In the opinion of the weather experts here re the models still showing the same scenario for the next week or so? There have been no posts here for the last 12 hours.....

People out enjoying the weather?

Not much to add to previous analysis really - a change in air mass Sunday with fresher nearer normal conditions for a day or so then high pressure building again from the SW would be a mean solution.
In other words, the great summer continues for many.

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Still a sunny out put that does not need to change.

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interesting met office forecast. We shall see. Currently here after an afternoon of rain the temperature has plummeted down to 20 degrees.

Last very warm day in the South East on Sunday

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014072512/nmmuk-0-50-0.png?25-19

Cooler temps for all of us on Monday

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014072512/nmmuk-0-72-0.png?25-19

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what about next week for the South East? Is there a re building of High Pressure again?

High pressure seems reluctant to move in off the Atlantic on the 12z's, meaning we're in a bit of a no mans land with little change as the week progresses. Apart from a few thundery showers bubbling up though conditions should be pretty pleasant in the south. GFS has temps still into the mid 20s next week.

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Moscow heatwave part 2?  looks like it will be sweltering over there, over a week of temps above 30C likely.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Moskau_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Moskau_ens.png

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It's usually a bad sign for us when Moscow get's hot. August 2010 was very hot for Moscow and cool/wet here.

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I was just thinking that, too. Next week is holding relatively firm for the time being, with anything properly unsettled developing into FI, but with the high pressure over Russia holding firm too I might add.

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SATURDAY JULY 26TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Pressure will be quite slack over the UK ahead of a trough of low pressure slipping SE across Scotland and Northern Ireland.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Slowly becoming more unsettled with the risk of outbreaks of rain sinking South over the UK later.

GFS The GFS operational this morning shows the cooler air well established across the UK from the NW to start next week. A ridge brings a temporary rise in temperature again towards midweek over the South before a general decline in conditions push South later as Low pressure develops near or over the UK. A lot of dry weather is likely after the trough clears the SE later Monday with showers returning late next week and beyond. The run then shows showery slack pressure through to the end of the run from then on while the ensembles, though supportive of week 1 brings back High pressure and subsequent very warm summery weather back to the UK through week 2.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows cooler air having slipped down across all areas at the start of next week with a cooler but fairly benign NW flow across the UK by the latter stages of next week. Some scattered showers are likely over the North while the South maintains a lot of dry and bright weather and while not as warm as recently it would still feel very pleasant in the sunny spells.

GEM The GEM operational today shows a slow decline into more cyclonic conditions across the British Isles as we move towards the end of next week and beyond. Before this the weather will of already turned rather cooler nationwide but after a showery Monday the South at least will see a dry and fairly warm phase towards the middle of next week as a ridge slips SE.

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a complex but slack setup developing over the UK by the end of next week and the weekend. While High pressure remains not far away a drift from the NW will maintain a rather cooler than of late feel and while temperatures could well remain sonewhat above average over the South next week the onset of showers early and late in the period will ensure the cooler feel is felt by all.

ECM The ECM operational also brings cooler conditions South across the UK next week though conditions will remain on the warm side of average until midweek at least in the far South. Showers on Monday will give way to a drier phase as a High pressure ridge slips SE across the South towards midweek. By the end of the week Low pressure will of slipped down over or developed across the UK with outbreaks of rain and showers becoming commonplace for all in nearer to average temperatures. The end of the run suggests a much more coherent dip into unsettled and windy conditions as unseasonably Low pressure sits across the UK at Day 10 with more prolonged rain and showers for all.

MY THOUGHTS  The general trend is now well set between the models although significant changes in the South are still shown to be some way off. The main theme is for a showery trough crossing South on Monday to introduce cooler uppers across the UK and while the following ridge will maintain some warmth and dry weather across the South up to and including midweek the theme is then one of falling pressure from the North or NW and by this time next week all parts will share in a mix of sunny intervals and outbreaks of mostly showery rain with nearer to average temperatures as Low pressure sits over or close to the UK. ECM however, takes this a stage further with almost Autumnal looking Low pressure setting up shop over the UK at Day 10. The longer term projections of GFS suggest the chances of pressure building again from the SW through Week 2 look high and this would mean a return to fine and very warm conditions returning to most areas should it verify. So in a nutshell and leaving the ECM operational aside the weather though cooler can hardly be described as disastrous in any one place with some bright and sunny spells between occasional showers the most popular consensus for all.

A note to all those interested. In addition to this once a day report on the 00z model output as from this weekend a similar report on the 12zs will appear on my website from10:00pm each day including a summary of the complete day model output. Unfortunately time restrictions will not permit me to post this here at this time.

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Thanks Gibby
With late next week and beyond looking decidingly changeable for all of us lets hope that the high pressure rebuilds thereafter!

Fear not, Cultman, the GEM is cheerleading for the rerturn of high pressure.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

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Thanks. There is not too much support for that from the 12zs which you can see from my report on my website from tonight if you wish. Sorry for the unashamed plug

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The UKMO and the GFS are showing NW N and NE UK Coolest with lowest pressure next week, and areas of the South and SE as well as SW at times seeing better drier weather with some warm sunny spells at times next week, while N England N Ireland and NE England plus much of Scotland seeing mixture of heavy rain and showers some heavy with thunder and hail possible- Particularly this Sunday and again by Tuesday and Wednesday as well as Thursday next week- with fresh Westerly or WSW winds.

Warm still dominates South and SE for another 7 days, but by day Friday Cooler weather should move in even here with a couple areas of showers moving with Low Pressure crossing West and penetrate the SE England by Friday.

Another quite exciting area to watch is Svalbard and Central SE Arctic and NE plus Central to SE Greenland and West N Central Iceland where for much of next Week and even following Saturday the Colder Arctic Low Pressure system with -5 areas expanded there in Arctic Central SE in and around the Svabard Islands of Norwegian Sea in particular.

Far NNE USA Newfoundland And West Central N Atlantic next week builds And Maintains a large Area of High Pressure next Week Tuesday to Saturday : blocking High. And same situation in West Russia and Moscow plus East side midsection parts of E and NE Europe just like West NW Atlantic and the Eastern plus far NE USA High both these areas Blocking High's and abnormally dry very warm sticky or dry hot sunny weather there!.

Cold Air with Low P. Over areas NW in the West N side Greenland Gin Sea as some very warm NE And E Canada PV Low Pressure looks in charge for period of Wednesday to Saturday in next week/ Weekend.

Have a good chatter What you think your thoughts and discussion takes you regardless of my updates feel free to ignore my posts Matty!.

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This morning's GFS brings resurgence of high pressure from the SW by August 6:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif

and GEM sticks with its idea from yesterday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

Looks like a trend.

Note the 0z GFS SLP ensemble - pressure dips for a brief interlude before reasserting strongly

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

 

WI

 

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY JULY 27TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A cooler but slack Westerly flow will continue to develop across the UK.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Slowly becoming cooler and more unsettled with by the end of this week continuing into week 2. Possibly brighter and warmer again at the end of the period.

GFS The GFS operational this morning shows the trend as before with cooler weather pulling down slowly from the North this week though any meaningful effect of this will take a long while to reach the extreme South. Showers in the North by nidweek will extend to all areas with time as shallow Low pressure develops across the UK. Temperatures will be closer to average but still somewhat on the warm side in the South at times. Later in the run the Low pressure areas relax somewhat as pressure builds weakly again acroo Britain with more in the way of dry ad bright weather and fewer showers. The Ensembles too show low pressure becoming more dominant across the UK later next week, through the weekend and into week 2 with rain and showers for all in average temperatures. They do support rising pressure and more settled, warmer conditions returning under UK based High pressure at the end of the period.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows pressure falling slowly later this week with the dry weather in the South slowly giving way to a UK wide mix of sunshine and showers in a Westerly breeze by next weekend with temperatures falling back towards the seasonal average especially in the North.

THE FAX CHARTS These charts continue to show a series of weak fronts affecting mostly the North of the UK with showers at times, more prolific than elsewhere whereas Southern Britain maintains a lot of dry and bright weather if rather cooler and fresher than of late though even here some troughs could bring a little rain later.

GEM The GEM operational this morning shows pressure falling over the UK later this week enhancing the already cooler weather with cloud and eventual rain and wind across the UK in association with a deep Low close to SW England next weekend. As we move into next week this Low fills and lifts away North with pressure rising again from the South with showers becoming restricted towards the North.

NAVGEM NAVGEM slides weak Low pressure South across Britain later next week in slack winds mostly from a Westerly point. Daytime heavy showers would be likely, heaviest and most prolific over inland Northern and Eastern parts.

ECM The ECM operational continues to look very low pressure biased for the UK though not quite a s harshly as last night. Nevertheless after benign weather for the first half or so of this week a deterioration in conditions under falling pressure will deliver rain at times by next weekend for all as Low pressure posiitions over the UK. This then recedes just slowly away North at the end of the run but maintains plenty of showers especially in the North at the end of the run.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are few notable cross model support changes today with all output maintaining the general theme of cooler and more unsettled weather gradually taking control over the UK with time while aso hinting at a return to better conditions later in Week 2.

MY THOUGHTS The weather charts today continue to show a slow deterioration in conditions as we move through this week. Nevertheless apart from rather lower temperatures than of late across the South it is unlikely that we will see much rain down here for some time yet. Low pressure is shown by all models to take more influence across all areas by next weekend although even then some models keep this shallow while ECM and GEM show a much more closed centre to low pressure giving rise to more wind as a result with more general precipitation a possibility. The longer term charts continue to suggest that such a change to unsettled weather could well be temporary as pressure builds from the SW again through week 2 with a return to summery conditions a possibility at least.

NEXT UPDATE AT 10:00PM SUNDAY JULY 27TH 2014

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Thank you Martin for the analysis. Even The Met office 30 Day Outlook is favourable....

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It has been bullishly favourable. Lends some extra confidence to the charts in FI.

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The 12z operationals are just absolutely disgusting.

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Agreed Matty..awful 

Lets just hope that the background signal from the GFS and the Met Office longer range thoughts for a northeastward push of the Azores High comes to fruition circa 6-8th August onwards.

We are spending 3 weeks in Cornwall from the 8th August camping..an atlantic dominated August would be a disaster down there.

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