Having issues with my website portal this morning so you guys have exclusivity to this here today. Hopefully my website will be updated later today

00z ANALYSIS from 29th July 2014

A ridge of High pressure will move slowly SE across Southern Britain today followed by a weak frontal trough clearing the SE tonight.

2 Week Headline Becoming unsettled with showers or rain at tims. Probably becoming dry and warm again in the South and East later in the period.

GFS this morning shows the continued pattern of the progression into more unsettled weather from the end of the week as Low pressure is scheduled to develop across the UK by Saturday. Sunshine and showers seem most likely with heavy showers in places with thunder a possibility and some warm sunshine in between. Next week then shows unsettled conditions continuing for quite some time before towards the end of next week Low pressure recedes away to the Northwest and pressure builds from the SW and the weather becomes warm and sunny again for many by the end of the run. The Ensembles are broadly similar taking Low pressure out into the Atlantic West of Britain in Week 2 restricting rainfall more and more towards the North and West while warmer weather affects the South and East for some of the time with a more marked extension towards Summery weather for all by the end of the run as High pressure builds over the UK from the SW.

UKMO shows Low pressure in total domination over the UK this weekend and at the start of next week. The basic pattern will be one of sunshine and showers with a few longer spells of rain too. Temperatures will be lower than of late but it will still feel relatively warm in the sunshine between the showers. It will also become rather breezy across the South on Monday.

The Fax Charts indicate that a series of weak troughs will affect Northern Britain over the next three days while the South maintain a lot of fine settled wweather close to higher pressure to the South. By the weekend Low pressure becomes much more potent and extensive across the UK with the rain and shower risk as a result increasing for all parts.

GEM this morning is much more sedate in it's approach towards the unsettled weather at the weekend and next week as it holds higher pressure close to the SE innitially before extending it's influence North and West to many areas by the end of the run as Low pressure is held much further away to the NW with time. This would mean that SE parts may hardly lose the warm conditions before they extend back towards other areas too later.

NAVGEM follows the main core of output in bringing a showery low pressure across the UK at the weekend before gradually sliding Low pressure back towards the NW as pressure re-builds from the South by the end of the run with the SE possibly becoming very warm again with any rain becoming mostly restricted towards NW Britain.

ECM follows the theme too with Low pressure to the NW of Britain next week giving North and West Britain rain at times while the South and East following the showery weekend becomes drier, brighter and warmer again with time as pressure rebuilds close to the SE.

Changes to longer term trends from previous output. There seems little change in the overall trends of the models this morning, each giving their own version of a theme of drier and brighter conditions across the South possibly extending further north later next week and through week 2 after we all have a short unsettled period commencing Friday

My Thoughts It seems that the models are wanting to dilute the extent of the unsettled weather next week the closer we come to the event. Low pressure is still expected to cover the UK at the weekend and this should give rise to at least a little useful rain for all despite much of the rain being scattered and showery. It's after the weekend when the trend towards Low pressure beng pushed out further to the NW or West which if evolves as shown would draw some warm air up from the South across at least Southern and Eastern areas again with a return of quite high temperatures and a lot of dry weather. As things stand this is well supported between the models with the longer term ones extending this improvement into a UK based High pressure area in two weeks time with fine summery weather for all. Looking this far ahead is very tentative though as Low pressure remains close to NW Britain with rain at times continuing here and it wouldn't take much of a shift East and South of this to bring more of the UK back into more unsettled conditions though I must concede this is not the trend at the moment.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014072812/run3/cfsnh-0-3606.png?12

Roll on Xmas eh?   

Thats right up Matty's street.

By Friday the South East still hanging on to 20's temperatures, the further North and West you go the cooler it will be

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014072912/nmmuk-0-72-0.png?29-19

Rainfall up to 72 hours, again shows this spilt with the South East having the driest conditions

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014072912/nmmuk-25-72-0.png?29-19

If that somehow verifies, then as Les Dennis used to say, I'll give you the money meself.

It's like a repeat of 2013, with a decent start to the summer falling away into mediocrity once the kids break up for their 6 weeks.

[sigh]

Well at least I got a nice break in Devon in the sun & heat out of it

#smallmercies

I thought that the schools in England usually break up for the summer just before mid-July, Saint. Up here our schools stop at the end of June and go back around or just after the middle of August.

After last year (in particular), I will never even look at a super long range CFS chart. I would also dismiss ALL LRF models as time after time, they have fallen short... especially for our shores here in the UK. Being at the intersection between W and E, I actually think no model will ever accurately predict our fate. It is a very fine line where very small changes will have very large implications - as we all know.

If the model gets it right, it is simple to explain. You will win the odd go at a fruit machine from time to time.

Ours broke up after last Tuesday, and all the schools I know broke up between the 18th and 25th.

Here today, we've had cloud, patchy drizzle and temps suppressed down to around 21c. That's also the forecast for about half the UK (geographically speaking) for the next week, more or less.

Quite an obvious NW-SE spilt developing, certainly much more rain spikes for the Manchester ensembles

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

21c is average, and I doubt we will see many days that cold here in the next couple of weeks.  Whatever GFS says.

You aren't a parent, and just basing your opinion based on junk-press stereotyping

Oh, and 21c and unsettled is still unsettled (and therefore sh*te summer weather)

Not much in the way of trend signals from todays models - UKMO seems to have shifted markely towards ECM, but on the other hand, GEM has churned out a much flatter run this evening, closer to recent GFS efforts.

Best just leave it to simmer for a little while longer.

I reakon north-west/south-east split is favourite for next week. South stays very warm at times, but it's unstable so expect fireworks at times.

Oh dear

Whoooooooosssssshhh

Clearly you missed the

All in jest

....And at day 6....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

GFS keen on reducing the initial unsettled weather to a 2 day wonder for many; keeping the low well out to the NW.

MET O now decides this is also the best option, unsurprisingly: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

GEM (often on a low pressure frenzy this summer), has a similar picture to GFShttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1441.gif

There is then a more unsettled slot for 6-7 August on GFS

...And by day 10... HP starts to influence again for S: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif

though GEM is again off on one: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

In summary for the start of the key holiday period

Looking warmer and drier and sunnier the surther S and E; wetter, windier and cooler the further N and W

WI

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY JULY 30TH 2014.

NEXT EXCLUSIVE UPDATE ON MY WEBSITE FROM 22:00HRS TONIGHT

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A ridge of High pressure will continue to slip slowly South across England and Wales over the next 24 hours with a fresh and showery Westerly flow over the North.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Somewhat more changeable than of late with some rain or showers from later this week onward into next week. Possibly becoming drier and warmer in the South and East again later in the period.

THE JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is scheduled to move South towards Spain over the coming days creating a trough over the UK. It then is shown to lift back North towards the British Isles next week.

GFS The GFS operational this morning shows Low pressure slipping South over the UK for this weekend with showers or rain at times for all. Later in the weekend and next week the Low responsible drifts away North and pressure builds across the South and East with a lot of dry weather next week with some warm sunny spells. To the NW pressure will remain low and fronts will deliver rain at times across the North and West extending to the SE at times as weakening bands. Late in the run pressure builds further to allow fine weather to extend to all areas with sunny spells and warm weather for all as High pressure builds NE across the UK. The Ensembles support this overall theme too with just short intervention from Atlantic troughs and attached rainfall affecting the SE at times in an otherise largely dry and occasionally warm picture here. The North and West will see much more frequent rain events than areas further South but even here things pick up towards mid August.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows Low pressure on Saturday pulling away North as pressure builds close to SE England. Further showers in the North on Sunday will become restricted to the far NW early next week as the South and East become dry and relatively warm again with no more than the risk of an isolated shower.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts indicate a complex Low pressure developing over the UK by the weekend moving slowly North on Sunday. Troughs of low pressure in association with this low pressure will affect all parts and one point or another especially on Saturday.

GEM The GEM operational follows the trend shown by the other models in the short term but fails to initialise the rise in pressure towards the South and East to such a degree next week. This means all areas could continue to see rain at times next week and by the end of the run things are shown to become quite Autumnal looking with a deep Low close to the SW with fresh winds and heavy rain the likelihood for all should it evolve.

NAVGEM NAVGEM is more in the majority camp next week with a showery low pressure at the weekend lifting away NW next week with pressure rising over Southern and Eastern parts with plenty of dry and warm weather with sunshine while the North and West stay more changeable with the risk of rain at times as pressure stays Low to the NW. 

ECM The ECM operational today makes a half-hearted attempt to rise pressure across the South and East early next week but it is quickly stalled by a trough crossing East from the West in association with establishing Low pressure to the NW. This means a brief warmer and drier interlude following the weekend nationwide shower event will be replaced by a band of potentially thundery rain crossing East and followed by cooler and fresher West winds but certainly no rain fest as pressure stays high to the SW.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The pendulum has slipped back again towards some confidence in a rise of pressure across the South and East next week with resultant warmer and drier weather holding a 60/40 bias approximately as it stands though there is some notable exceptions to this from respected models like the GEM operational.

MY THOUGHTS This morning' model are 100% agreed on the fact that Low pressure will dominate this coming weekend with rain and showers for all in average early August temperatures. What is less clear is how quickly and bodily this pattern moves away North next week and how much and to what extent pressure is allowed to rise across the South and East next week. There is plenty of support for it to have enough impact to return largely dry and warm conditions back to a large swather of Southern and eastern England however, Low pressure to the NW is shown by some output to throw more active troughing East across all parts at times delivering some rain for all and returning cooler Atlantic air to all. My own briefing is for the weather to remain fairly changeable across the North and West of Britain with rain at times while down here in the South and East of Britain there is sufficient support shown across the models to give rise to a strong chance that there will be a lot of dry, bright and reasonably warm weather continuing and just very occasional bursts of rain as weak troughs cross through. It is nice to see that the GEM operational is a stand alone model this morning in it's attempt to introduce deep and Autumnal Low pressure early to the UK in 10 days time.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014072812/run3/cfsnh-0-3606.png?12
Roll on Xmas eh?

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Thats right up Matty's street.

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 

After last year (in particular), I will never even look at a super long range CFS chart. I would also dismissALL LRF models as time after time, they have fallen short... especially for our shores here in the UK. Being at the intersection between W and E, I actually think no model will ever accurately predict our fate. It is a very fine line where very small changes will have very large implications - as we all know.
If the model gets it right, it is simple to explain. You will win the odd go at a fruit machine from time to time.

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Been saying this for years. They are a waste of time, both creating them or reading them. Utterly worthless as a forecasting tool.

A week is pushing it most of the time. Ten days tops and even then the detail is all to cock more often than not. You may just about get a trend accurate at ten days. It's when people produce LRFs for months ahead including specifics such as where certain types of precip will fall in certain areas that I don't really find amusing, I just find them misleading tosh that give the pros a bad name when thickos read them and believe them and then whine when they are ultimately always wrong. Usually citing the MetO even though it's nothing to do with them. I'm talking amateur outfits who hate to be criticised on places like this. Charlatans if you will.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Agree with most of that but as you know I am a fan of Gavin's excellent JMA Friday   and I did a test in June when it was predicting July, looked at the notes and on the whole it predicted pressure patterns for July almost spot on. JMA is not always right and sometimes gets it very wrong, but an impressive performance none the less - to be fair that is only a month and a bit away at the time not 6 months. The Russian model can be not bad either but on the whole as Gavin noted in the recent Autumn look ahead, are they all right for a warmer than average Autumn? Certainly won't be right if as Younger dryas posted on Gavin's site (and the related video) we switch back to cooler than average months by September / October for CET.

Back to MO and as Gibby notes GEM as usual doing its over the top unsettled theme with ECMF probably showing the most likely evolution. Hardly a washout and wouldn't take much to flip back to warm Summery weather.