Lately I have been paying more attention than usual to the medium range model outputs with Monday 4th August to mind. Why that particular day? I hear you holler. That's when Prince Harry will be coming to Folkestone to attend the Great War Memorial Ceremony, this really will put my homeplace in the spotlight with the world's media converging on us. So, naturally with all that to mind, it is imperative that the weather has to be fair and settled for it. We might as well get our dollar's worth out of it all.
  And thankfully the models seems to be indicating just that as far as this neck of the woods is concerned.  Or at least that's how I'm seeing it - apart from NAVGEM but that model is about as useless as a chocolate fireguard when it comes to medium range forecasting anyway.
   Just keep the weather half decent for that one day, that's all I ask, then it can do what the heck it likes for the rest of the year (apart from stormy winds, of course).

 As to long range computer generated forecasts , they will keep spewing out forecasts till someone pulls out the plug 

Long live the LRF!  If nothing else, it gives us something else to ponder

Here's the CFS for mid August:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014072918/run1m/cfs-0-438.png?18

I knew it wasn't me you was talking about.   I know how much you've always rated and appreciated my (and Tom Persitti and Brian's) long range efforts. 

This is interesting, actually. Thanks for the feedback.

I've never actually verified JMA Friday. I just do the video, put it out and move on to the next update, tending to forget what it was showing from one week to the next.

It's encouraging to hear the model is performing so well. As you say, it's one thing to get a month ahead forecast to a reasonable level of accuracy and quite another to be able to predict an entire sreason, but it's a start.

Keep me in touch with the results if you do more verification of my JMA Friday updates.

Totally agree, do like how Gavin looks at the LRF output then has his opinion about it, great stuff 

Hope to do another one soon - I think late August or early September could be a good period to check - just something I did because I was wondering how accurate JMA really was. 

Thanks Scandy!

Yeah, early Spetember could be a reasonable time-frame to monitor.

Gavs are excellent

The South East still hanging onto the warmest temps by Saturday

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014073012/nmmuk-0-72-0.png?30-19

Looking wet for some areas over the next few days, with the accumulated rainfall over 72 hours

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014073012/nmmuk-25-72-0.png?30-19

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY JULY 31ST 2014.

NEXT EXCLUSIVE UPDATE ON MY WEBSITE FROM 22:00HRS TONIGHT

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A depression will develop near SW England by tomorrow with a cyclonic and showery airflow across the UK.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Somewhat more changeable than of late with some rain or showers from later this week onward into next week. Possibly becoming drier and warmer in the South and East again later in the period.

THE JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream moves South briefly to Spain before pulling back North again next week to lie West to East across the British Isles next week and further North still towards the end of week 2.

GFS The GFS operational this morning documents the showery low pressure across the UK at the weekend before pulling it away North early next week with a steady build of pressure across the South and East leading to dry, bright and warm conditions developing here apart from an isolated shower. Then through the rest of the run apart from the intervention of a trough or two moving East across all areas the South and East remain likely to see plenty of fine and warm weather while the North and west remain rather more changeable with rain at times. Late in the run the fine conditions in the South and East extend to all areas as High pressure extends NE across the UK from the Azores with very warm conditions developing for many once more. The GFS Ensembles endorse this theme well and if anything are more bullish about keeping pressure relatively high in the SE whiel the changeable breezy conditions in the NW is held at bay. It too shows an extension to this fine weather to all areas by the end of the run.

UKMO UKMO today shows the showery, weekend Low pressure slip away North early next week with a ridge of High pressure then developing across the South and East with just isolated showers possible while the NW maintains breezy and changeavke weather in association with Low pressure to the NW.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex Low pressure across the UK at the weekend with an equally complex trough structure delivering rain or thundery showers at times especially on Saturday sliding more towards the North on Sunday with pressure rising across the South and East in slack upper air patterns.

GEM The GEM operational also lifts Low pressure out of Southern Britain early next week with very warm High pressure not far from SE England pulling warm and possibly humid air up into these areas next week while the North and West stay more changeable and breezy under the influence of a Low pressure centre to the NW of scotland.

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows much more shallow improvements in the South and East next week with a ridge possibly displaced by further Atlantic developments crossing East over many areas through the week with rain at times and average temperatures. 

ECM The ECM operational this morning shows slack pressure across the South and East following the showery weekends weather. The North and West remain more changeable with occasional rain. Later next week an active front crosses west to east over the UK giving all areas some rain before fresher and brighter weather returns from the West in time for next weekend as a ridge follows the trough East and becomes a High pressure cell across the UK towards the end of the run delivering fine and increasingly warm conditions in light winds for most.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is growing support that the unsettled weather felt by all this weekend will just be a temporary phase across Southern and Eastern Britain as most models now support quite dry and bright conditions in these parts next week with just occasional flirtations of a little rain at times.

MY THOUGHTS This morning sees very little change in the overall pattern of events to those shown last night. However, having said that there is much more support for the extension of the dry, fine and warm conditions toyed for recently by certain output to become a reality. So after the hiatus of showery weather this weekend across the UK it looks likely that increasingly rain will become a feature of just Northern and Western Britain and it maybe that Southern and Eastern England in particular could spend the vast majority of time next week dry, warm with some pleasant sunshine in light winds. There is the caveat though that the Low to the NW could spin a trough or two across all areas at times to give a little rain right down to the SE. Longer term things look even better with the longer term models showing signs of another High pressure cell from the Azores delivering most areas fine and very warm weather later in Week 2. This is a long way out though but does follow the pattern we have seen repeatedly this Summer so does hold some confidence even at this range.

As Martin summaries nicely again this morning, after a showery spell and then a likely frontal passage sometime later next week as the Atlantic noses in for a day or two, the long-term prospects are looking rather decent at the moment.

It's all down to the way in which next week's Atlantic trough looks to meet a road block and lift out north, with a ridge building in from the southwest.

If the jet amplifies enough - taking a sharp turn to the north just before reaching the UK - then pressure could rise across Scandinavia too, more or less steering us back towards where we were a few weeks ago, though a stronger Atlantic flow might give HP to the NE more trouble this time, with a ridge displacing from the Azores a more favoured outcome.

As always, complications could easily arise. ECM hints at those but still manages to bring in a HP cell from the SW and shows signs of the upstream Atlantic trough finding its way somewhere to our SW, a good recipe for a UK high building and extending E/NE, potentially holding its ground for a while 

Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

Battle-Ground UK For Early August

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Traditional north-west/south-east split with some warm weather at times in the south.

No sign of any dangerous, borderline life-threatening heatwaves at this stage though.

An unhelpful GFS 12z op run today; from day 6 onward it drives energy NE and generates trough activity where UKMO and GEM have a ridge of some kind.

The impact on conditions down the line is enormous, completely realigning the jet as the trough shifts to our N/NE and the main ridge situates out to our west.

With no support from UKMO and GEM, it appears the GFS run is out on a limb... usually when that's the case at day 5, GFS tends to back down a lot more than the other models. That does mean we might see the UKMO/GEM ridge influence toned down a little though.

I'm looking for an ECM run that supports the UKMO/GEM idea of the jet stream being amplified enough to allow heights to the NE to hold fast, keeping the main Atlantic trough out to our west or northwest.

If ECM goes the GFS way... confidence in my CET prediction will be in tatters 

Looks like a wet period coming up, for those of you who are new members the "spikes" at the bottom of the graphs represent rainfall so this looks mainly for the North and especially the West. Temperatures don't look that bad though - around average to slightly above.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

ECM 12z is not a pretty sight for those looking for settled weather returning widely, quite different to this morning's run.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY AUGUST 1ST 2014.

NEXT EXCLUSIVE UPDATE ON MY WEBSITE FROM 22:00HRS TONIGHT

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An active depression will form near Southern Britain tonight moving steadily North tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  A lot of dry and bright, warm weather especially in the SE with some rain at times in the North and West, perhaps reaching the SE at times as thundery showers.

THE JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream currently undergoing a trip to Spain this weekend will drift back North next week to lie West to East across the UK where it remains for some time before trending even further North later in the run.

GFS The GFS operational this morning shows the weekend Low moving North and leaving a slack pressure pattern over the UK to begin next week with amix of warm sunny spells and scattered showers likely. Through the week several bands of thundery rain on troughs crosses East introducing fresher air with sunny spells towards the end of the week as pressure builds from the SW. through the second lalf of the run details are complex but the general message is that High pressure could extend NE across the UK at times introducing back the fine summer weather we have all experienced of late with the risk of thundery showers in the South at times. The Ensembles this morning differ only slightly from the operational in as much as it holds the axis of the build of pressure later in the run further South maintaining a more unsettled feed of SW winds to the NW and keeping things warmer and driest across the South and East

UKMO UKMO today shows a fragmenting trough cross East on Tuesday with thundery rain in humid air. Thereafter the humidity persists in the South and East while the North and West see further frontal rain at times through Wednesday and Thursday possibly extending further SE later.

THE FAX CHARTS TheFax Charts this morning shows a complex Low pressure drifting North over the UK over the next 24-48 hours bringing the potential for heavy rain and showers for a time. This is then shown to lift North away from Britain leaving a slack pressure pattern with a lot of dry and bright weather about with just scattered showers before a band of more general and potentially thundery rain crosses east on a weakening trough on Tuesday.

GEM The GEM operational today shows this weekends Low pressure move away North at the start of the new week with slack pressure and the mix of sunshine and scattered showers the likely outcome for a time thereafter. Through the week several attempts at dislodging warm and humid air in the SE come about and eventually it does but with the following pressure rise all areas come under the influence of a High pressure area drifting slowly East over the UK with increasingly dry, warm and sunny weather likely to end the run in 10 days time. 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the warming trend next week as that it did last night with High pressure ending the run close to SE England with warm and moist SW winds across the UK. The North and West will see fronts bring occasional rain in the flow and if any of these interact with the humidity in the SE the odd thunderstorm would be possible here. 

ECM The ECM operational this morning shows a lot of slack pressure over the UK next week as the weekend Low pressure moves away North by Monday. There will be plenty of benign dry and bright weather to be experienced through the week with warmth and humidity rising across the South and East. Then as several attacks of weakening Atlantic fronts run into this humidity each will bring their own risk of thundery rain as they cross slowly East. Then in the final two day frames Low pressure develops close to SE England with thundery rain much more prevalent for a time before Day 10 hints at a shift towards cooler and fresher Westerly winds and dry weather as a ridge moves across slowly from the West.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are no notable trend changes shown today that have not already been documented in previous runs of late with just different variations between the output on a theme of the same pattern.

MY THOUGHTS This morning's output suggests no major shifts of emphasis on the pattern that has been shown for some time now. It looks like following the weekends nationwide unsettled snap that pressure will rise and become slack over many areas with Low pressure anchored out to the NW. The resultant Southerly drift should give rise to increasingly warm and humid weather especially over the South and East and while the NW may continue to see rain off and on from fronts it's how these interact with the warm and moist air over England that could give rise to occasional thundery outbreaks especially midweek. This should not detract though from what looks like a pleasant enough week in what will not be wall to wall sunshine but quite useable conditions for most. Longer term and the Jury still seems out on where we go from there with varying options shown all giving very different weather types should any of them evolve. While this scattering continues it remains pointless speculating on the what could be and wait until more clarification and common ground occurs between the output. What I can say there is nothing particularly frightening and unpleasant within the output this morning particularly temperature wise which could not give August the chance that it could be the 9th consecutive month in a row which ends warmer than average at least for the South.

As the Atlantic trough edges in later next week, it looks like a secondary circulation may try and develop to the SE of it, elongating the trough and potentially leading to a LP splitting off and sliding SE or even SSE.

GFS doesn't really go for it, but does have a more elongated trough compared to previous runs.

ECM is a whisker away, but as an unstable plume to the south gets involved, the LP develops strongly and pushes north rather than being held back by the HP to the NE of the UK.

So it does seem that once again, a simple Atlantic push is looking increasingly complicated as we draw nearer to the time.

If the secondary LP develops and lifts out, a ridge could arrive from the SW behind it, as ECM and GEM show - the latter more convincingly. With a trough shown to amplify somewhere in the central North Atlantic around that time, such a ridge could be maintained for some time - but with the unsettled westerlies threatening to barge in across more northern areas at least.

If the secondary LP undercuts, a whole new game will be afoot, with another warm/hot continental easterly up for grabs... but at the moment, support for that idea is limited or perhaps absent (I've not got the time to look through all the ensembles).

ECM 00z has a thundery look to things this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif

Looking very wet for some of us over the next few days with the accumulated rainfall.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014080100/nmmuk-25-72-0.png?01-07

ECM 10 Day mean looks hardly inspiring to be honest and indicates little change to me from yesterday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Quite a defined W/E split for England on that chart. No real rainfall at all for the next 72 hours for the SE.

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

JMA Friday + August Look-Ahead

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Also looking at the rain today, tonight, tomorrow, etc...

Hint's of a bit of plume Thu-Sat on GFS 12z.