Hmmm.... 

The 12 z MEt O looking warm and fine for many:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

GFS looking hot and dry at this point away from the NW:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1682.gif

What a fabulous summer some of us are having

Setting up a thundery plume after 144hs onwards IMO!

Possibly, but Id be reluctant to bet against the fine, warm settled theme to continue at that time for the bulk of Britain's populus.

WI

Latest accumulated precip chart up to 72 hrs still showing parts of the SE bone dry but very wet in quite a few other areas.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014080112/nmmuk-25-72-0.png?01-19

Yes, GFS temps into the high twenties for that timeframe. Recipe for thunderstorms.

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

Before it turns cooler and unsettled there might be a plume - As I explain in today's video, the set-up of ridge to the east and trough to the west could result in brief hot plume's at any time.

Shows a classic NW/SE split.  Surprising how much rain is forecast in some areas, I'd expect the actual totals to be lower in the N and W.  From my use of these charts last winter, they do tend to over-cook BUT it is indicative at least.

I tend to share with this view too.

Why ?...Because the family holiday in Cornwall starts on Friday 8th August...this time for 3 weeks.

We have been there at varying times between 27th July and 22nd  August in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2008, 2011,2012 and 2013.

High Pressure has never sat overhead once on each of these occasions. Its always been a case of fleeting ridges, deep atlantic depressions, ex hurricanes and stalling fronts. 2011 was the best of the bunch. 2008 and 2012 were disasters. We experienced a completely dry week in 2003 but were shrouded in fog for 5 days out of 7 that time. 

One day Cornwall will get HP during the first half of August...one day. 

Jeez, if this is "turning unsettled from the west", Id love to see his description of a fullblown Atlantic storm. 

All looks very benign to me.

WI

So much for all this so called turning cooler - yet another 27C today.

Apart from one or two days. I don't think I've had more than 2 or 3 days below 25C for close on 4 weeks now.

Hmmn.

A subtle realignment of the jet sees a bit more amplification with a stronger ridge to the east and a glancing plume from both GFS and UKMO on their respective 12z op runs. GFS soons throws the Atlantic at us again, but the ridge puts up a good fight and gains the upper hand before too long.

GEM seems to give the idea a nod, but ramps up the Atlantic storms well beyond the other models even at day 5, which rather makes a mess of things. Day 10 features a direct hit from an ex-hurricane - classic GEM!

ECM isn't buying the idea at all, sticking with a weak secondary low (the elongated part of the Atlantic trough) tracking NE across the UK followed by a ridge from the Azores by day 9... only for the Atlantic to launch a strong attack on day 10 which brings quite a blast for the time of year across the north. The south, meanwhile, sees upper air temperatures as high as 15*C arriving from the SW, which reflects the fact that the trough contains a system orginating down in the tropics.

JMA is a halfway house between GFS/UKMO and ECM, following the latter's idea of a weak LP tracking NE through rather weak HP to the E/NE, yet also bringing more in the way of imported heat along the way.

Two major sources of uncertainty to contend with, then - the complex secondary low/continental plume scenario from the middle of next week for a few days, followed by a potentially souped-up Atlantic storm that depends on a tropical cyclone behaving the right way... notoriously tricky for the models to handle.

With that in mind, I wouldn't pay too much attention to any forecasts looking beyond Tuesday next week 

Not buying this idea then?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.gif

Busy doing my day job today so no time to post report across but an abridged version can be found here for those who are interested.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Here are the London SLP ensembles which show the rapid and sustained return of high pressure,...dont know about Glasgow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

Day 6 on GFS...benign summery fayre:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

Looks changeable to me with both the Met and the ECM bringing in a trough across the country by Thursday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

A bit up in the air in FI depending on with model you look at.

Those slow moving trough's on Thursday through to Saturday look like they are stalling over the country - Meaning somewhere could be very, very wet!

It's just where those trough's stall - The east and south-east certainly won't be far from hot air at the end of the week, I don't think, but concern really is for rain rather than heat.

Has "you know who" jinxed August?

Regarding next week, looks like it's all in the amplification of high pressure to the west AND to the east of the UK and how they control that stalling trough being sandwiched over the country itself,
  As a result, there is the potential for some proper heat (and humidity) to get drawn in from the near Continent to make it rather sweaty for a time over Central, Southern and Eastern parts as we wear into the end of next week.
  My own thoughts are that the South West and Central Southern England'll get to be rather moist with thundery outbreaks while the far South East may experience a last minute heatwave.

Good Lord, I almost sounded like I knew what I was talking about. But then again, a few days ago, I tried to forecast what the weather is going to be like for this Monday for Prince Harry's visit to Folkestone (am expecting it to be generally fair & settled with varied cloud amounts and sunny breaks and feeling quite warm in calm winds) and it does seem to be still on track.

<--- (blows on own trumpet).

Agreed.