http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014080212/ECU1-216.GIF?02-0

Woah there ECM, this is summer remember? 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

This is the same system that slid nicely on SE on the 00z op run, but this run has other ideas!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif

I'm hoping the energy in the Atlantic is being way overcooked, because this is a setup that screams 'utter deluge':

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

GFS doesn't see that system developing at all really, nor does JMA. The former still has a fairly active Atlantic giving a ridge from the Azores a hard time (but manages some hot spells for the south in FI) while the latter doesn't really get the Atlantic going out to day 8.

GEM seems to want to develop countless miniture storm systems, swarming the UK in some kind of apocalyptic vision.

Okay, maybe that last description is being a little melodramatic 

That ECMWF is a thing to behold by 216hrs!

"earlier on today a woman rang the BBC to say there's a hurricane on the way, if you're watching don't worry there isn't" 

ECM 216

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

GEM 216

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2161.gif

Despite a lot of optimism on this thread...I'm still not convinced.

A noteworthy deep depression has been progged at various times (including the GFS) over recent days.

With me in Cornwall during this period its a dead cert at this stage. 

ECM has been on the gin again

For all the wrong reasons.

The way it suddenly and dramatically deepens that depression to the south of England from T+192 to T+216 makes me think that it's very likely making the same error that GFS often makes, i.e overdoing LP systems in terms of strength. It is of course entirely possible that a low may form at that timeframe, but I'd be very surprised to see it as deep as that given the time of year.

More runs needed I reckon.

More runs from GFS= no scary low, now there's a surprise

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2041.gif

What will ECM show this morning....Those of us watching the models will know that GEM has been forecasting storms akin to this all summer at a range of 7-10 days; only for them to magically disappear by the time the day gets to 144 hours.  FI appplies in summer too:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1921.gif

Edit - ECM goes for "Plumeageddeon"http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

WI

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8PM TODAY SUNDAY AUGUST 3RD 2014.

NEXT EXCLUSIVE UPDATE ON MY WEBSITE FROM 22:00HRS TONIGHT

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A depression over the Irish Sea will continue to move slowly North and weaken with time. A slack SW flow will deveop over the UK by tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  A lot of dry and bright, warm weather especially in the SE with some rain at times in the North and West, perhaps reaching the SE at times as thundery showers.

THE JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is forecast to ease North on an Eastward course to a position across the UK through the coming week with the chance of it moving somewhat further North still later in Week 2.

GFS The GFS operational today shows the weather over the coming week to 10 days governed by the behaviour of Low pressure up to the NW. In addition to this pressure will remain quite High to the South but whether this will be close enough to prevent the slack South or SW flow to produce showers or rain at times looks unlikely on this run with all areas at risk of some rain at times between good spells of pleasantly warm and dry weather. Later in the run pressure builds North somewhat over the Atlantic tilting winds more towards the NW and allowing temperatures to fall back somewhat. The GFS Ensembles this morning have churned out a very changeable run this morning with Low pressure to the NW giving way to a vigorous Low pressure system over western Britain a week or so from now with rain and gales for all for a time before pressure builds strongly with High pressure sitiing over the UK at the end of it's run with sunny and warm conditions returning for all .

UKMO UKMO this morning shows slack and slightly showery conditions through the first half of the week under a SW flow before a depression brings more persistent rain North and East from SW England on Thursday to most areas by Friday clearing away to the North again by next weekend.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts endorse the view of the UKMO raw data this morning in illustrating a slack SW flow until the end of the working week when troughs are shown ganging up to the SW and moving steadily NE across many parts by the 120hr mark.

GEM The GEM operational today shows the same pattern as UKMO through this week with the slack SW flow giving way to a more marked Low sliding north up the west of the UK at the end of this coming week with rain and showers for many as a result. It then moves a step closer to Autumn and the GFS Ensemble pack through the start of Week 2 following a showery weekend with an unseasonably deep Low with gales and rain for many in 10 days time. 

NAVGEM NAVGEM is not available again this morning at time of issue. 

ECM The ECM operational today shows Low pressure up to the NW through this week with a slack Southerly airflow across the UK with occasional showers. Late in the week a depression moves NE over England with more widespread rain as a result. Then over the end of the weekend and start to the new week a vgorous Low containing some ex-tropical air winds up to the NW of Spain dragging strong but warm SE winds across the UK. It then ends the run with this filling Low complex moving bodily NE across the UK with some heavy rain and showers for all in cyclonic winds.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There seems a strong tend to bring in the remains of an ex-tropical storm towards the UK in a week to 10 days time. It's positioning is not agreed upon but should it move close to the UK some strong winds and heavy rain is very likely and there is some support for this from several models.

MY THOUGHTS This morning's output seems quite quiet over the next three or four days as light SSW winds deliver some warm sunny spells and just occasional showers. There are signs though that things may turn somewhat more generally unsettled through next weekend and certainly beyond as the remains of air from an ex-tropical storm wind up a deep depression either close to the West of the UK or as ECM has it to the SW. Whatever position this takes up it would almost certanly deliver some copious rainfall closest to it's centre and all coastal areas would see some gale or even severe gale force gusts should it full bodily cross the UK. With all this action going on it may surprise you that it is likely to stay on the warm side for many with some warm sunshine on offer at times in winds generally from a direction between SE and SW.

Thank you Martin for the output.  Winds to watch out for with the rain it will bring......10 Days  of  wondering...

That ECM run... what?!

It comes up with some of the most extreme charts I've ever seen for the UK.

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140803/00/ecmt850.216.png

The abundance of tropical moisture, high 850's and an ex-tropical cyclone to the SW is a recipe for something a bit insane.

Imagine my amazement when I saw that UKMO is right along ECM's lines out to day 6, with a strong tropical/ex-tropical Bertha (I'm not entirely sure which it is at day 6... close enough to the Azores to potentially keep some tropical characteristics).

GEM also sees the system, but as usual gives everthing more energy and just fires it right across the UK - an Autumnal storm is the end result, though a rather warm one I suppose.

GFS isn't developing the system much at all. B-o-r-i-n-g 

Rather interested to see what weather that would bring, as i think I could be lookign at 30C+ with gale force winds here with that sort of set up.

If we see some more interesting charts this evening, I would expect to hear a lot about "Big Bad Bertha" from the Daily Express tomorrow morning

And some big thunderstorms with that set up to.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

nwp going to be a bt of a mess post day 6/7 for a while as it gets a handle on Bertha. 

A fair step towards ECM from the 06z GFS op run... very interesting.

Ex-Bertha doesn't exploit the strong jet after transitioning from tropical to ex-tropical, though - the storm just fades away and then scoots NE across the UK as a slack low.

The ramping up of the jet does look to be problematic for the UK, particularly the NW, as the broad scale pattern looks to be aligned in a way that could fire those Atlantic storms right through to either over or close to the N or NE of the UK. The GFS 06z op takes the trough all the way to Scandinavia, with an amplified ridge to the west then producing a pattern that we haven't seen for many, many weeks - a cool northwesterly flow.

ECM looks like the best case scenario for retaining a more summer like feel, in which Ex-Bertha digs south and amplifies the trough in the jet enough to send the main brunt of the jet well south of the UK, which means the next Atlantic trough in line isn't able to ride the westerly burst and progress towards the UK much. We end up with the remnants of ex-Bertha for day 10 instead - still unsettled, but more like summer rain than the autumnal version that GFS produces.

The 12z runs are eagerly awaited today. I would enjoy experiencing something as unusual as the ECM 00z op run offers, but I'm not counting on it just yet 

Well that's not an ideal chart for the middle of the six weeks holiday;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.gif

To be pedantic that is the week that many of the Scottish schools reopen after the six week holiday 

The sentiment is spot on though. It does unfortunately look increasingly likely that the main feature of our weather will be low rather than high pressure. Still there's always time for improveent as recent weeks have shown.

The GFS 12z does show an improvement after that LP system has cleared away NE though, and that model has in a number of runs recently indicated a gradual return to more settled conditions around the middle of August, or just afterwards. I understand from Martin's recent output summaries that the GFS ensembles have also been indicating a return to mostly settled weather as we go further into August.

A pattern change here! Then a return to setteld conditions during the mid to latter of the month, but I feel we saw our hottest summer temps during July! It's time for a pleasant change ;)

That's a deep nasty pressure system

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014080312/ECU1-168.GIF?03-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014080312/ECM1-168.GIF?03-0