HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY AUGUST 4TH 2014.

NEXT EXCLUSIVE UPDATE ON MY WEBSITE FROM 22:00HRS TONIGHT

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Low pressure will move away North out of Scotland with a slack South or SW wind across the UK.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming steadily more unsettled with rain at times and temperatures close to or above normal at times. Windy too at times especially in the West.

THE JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream currently tothe South of the UK is now expected to hold over or to the South of the UK for some considerable time, strengthening markedly for a time at the start of Week 2.

GFS The GFS operational today shows the benign pattern of weather continuing across the UK for much of this week with just a slack SW flow directing weakish troughs in from the West at times delivering scattered showers almost anywhere at times with warm sunshine in between. By this time next week a vigorous depression looks like sweeping NE over the UK with rain and potential gales likely before as this moves away fresher brighter conditions will move down from the NW with sunshine and showers. The GFS Ensembles continue the unsettled weather more defined following the early next week depression with further rain at times under UK based Low pressure well into the preiod towards the end of the run.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows Low pressure intemsifying to the North and West of the UK by the end of next weekend with showers and longer spells of rain becoming more and more prevalent with time under fresher cyclonic winds.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex series of trough moving steadily NE across the UK on various occasions over the next 5 days with rain or thundery showers in places mostly but not exclusively likely across the South and West.

GEM The GEM operational today shows a slack flow of winds from the SW this week with Low pressure well to the NW. Through next weekend and possibly before the Low pressure comes closer in towards NW Britain and as increasingly warm and humid air becomes injected into the mix a deep and unseasonal depression moves across Britain early next week with rain and gales for many. This is then shown to fill slowly near NW Scotland but maintaining a showery trough down across the UK out to the end of the run. 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a steadily declining in weather conditions later this week as Low pressure moves closer in towards the UK culminating in a deep and vigorous Low pressure swinging North across the Uk early next week with rain and gales for all. 

ECM The ECM operational this morning follows the same trend with a showery week under light winds giving way to windier and wetter conditions next weekend although it makes far less of the vigorous nature of a depression early next week keeping synoptics under a typical depression NW of the UK with rain and showers for all in SW winds the most likely scenario continuing out to the end of the run and possibly beyond.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There seems a strong tend to bring in air from the remains of an ex-tropical storm towards the UK in a week to 10 days time. The increasing confidence in this feature has sharpened all the models over the last 24 hours or so and now has high confidence to occur in some shape or form.

MY THOUGHTS This morning's main feature through the models is how the remains of an ex-tropical feature and more importantly the warm and moist air in contains interacts with our own UK based low pressure early next week. In the meantine fairly benign conditions ensue but with some rain in the form of showers at some point for most off and on through the next 5-6 days with some warm sunshine in between. It's over the weekend and next week that some output shows the potential for a very windy and wet spell as the warm moist air meets cooler air to the North and winds up an early Autumn storm somewhere close to the UK with heavy rain and gales a distinct probability should this occur. As usual at this range all models offer differing versions of this feature from no more than a wave deression from ECM to a more focused closed centre from GFS, NAVGEM and GEM. However this evolves though there looks a lot of support for the weather to become more unsettled than we have seen for some time starting early next week with the Atlantic Jet Stream strengthening close to the UK and generating Low pressure close to or over Northern Britain with rain or showers for all at times in blustery West or SW winds.

Cheers GIBBY.

Yep looks a lot more unsettled than we have been used to so far this summer.

Don't tell me, you've been offered cereal for breakfast instead of a heart attack?

Looks like this could be the week our luck finally ran out. An active jet stream with numerous disturbances was already threatening to flatten our ridge from the Azores and perhaps eradicate the HP to the NE too, and now the remnants of Bertha look capable of driving the broad-scale trough right across the UK and possibly on to our E/NE.

UKMO and GEM still show an evolution that aligns ex-Bertha in the right way for driving the jet well south of the UK and maintaining a ridge to our E/NE, but GEM then shows how this probably won't be enough now that the Thursday/Friday disturbance doesn't clear to the north as swiftly as the ECM 00z run yesterday showed - that was the key to building a strong enough ridge to the east to keep ex-Bertha to the west of the UK.

As for whether we get something like GFS, UKMO, ECM or a different evolution entirely, it all comes down to Bertha's track while still a tropical cyclone, both in terms of path and speed.

As of yesterday morning, we needed a fair bit of luck to escape a full-blown unsettled spell. Now we need a whole truck load!

Pretty much sums it up.

Summer 2014 following a broadly similar path to 2013 in this part of the world at least. A decent June, a hot spell in July, then a breakdown to unsettled conditions in late July into August.

Bleh..

Very wet day s/e England Critical point for uk and Bertha.

t120

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1084.gif

Get your boat out

Phew - looks like a change there on the way.

Well it has been a decent Summer for most of the UK - and today is the first time I've noticed the sun doesn't have that kick to it like it does in June and July - at least up here. The sun is defintely getting a bit weaker now.

Well if many recent GFS op runs prove to be on the money, it may not be too unsettled for too long. This coming weekend and at least part of next week don't look too great for sure, but after that GFS is and has been indicating high pressure to return, at least to some extent.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

An unsettled Met/o 12z.

Shocking output for the period Friday 8th / Tuesday 12th August. 

Looks like there may be a brief ridge on Saturday to get the tent up before it blows down on Sunday.

Encouragingly the GFS shows a slow and steady rise in pressure from the SW soon after. (3rd succesive run now).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif

Typically crap Manchester weather.

JMA looking unsettled too with showers or longer spells of rain and windy with gales by next week esp at the coast

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080412/J120-21.GIF?04-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080412/J144-21.GIF?04-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080412/J156-21.GIF?04-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080412/J168-21.GIF?04-12

Cool at times too

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080412/J72-7.GIF?04-12

And to add insult to injury at the end of it's run it drags in cooler air again from the north west

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080412/J192-7.GIF?04-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014080412/J192-21.GIF?04-12

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140804/18/93/h850t850eu.png

For a snippet of good news, Thursday and Friday are looking increasingly dry and warm with each new GFS run, as less is made of that disturbance tracking NE from near Iberia. 

This trend has only really manifested over the last two GFS runs though, so confidence is low - the morning runs will most likely settle this - even if it is on the more unsettled version of events 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY AUGUST 5TH 2014.

NEXT EXCLUSIVE UPDATE ON MY WEBSITE FROM 22:00HRS TONIGHT

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Troughs of Low pressure will cross slowly NE across the UK both today and tonight.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming steadily more unsettled with rain at times and temperatures close to or above normal at times, especially at first. Windy too for a time and possibly a little cooler and fresher later.

THE JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast taken from the GFS Ensemble data indicates the flow currently just to the South of the UK will move West to East in axis and gradually move North over the UK and possibly further North still in a weakened form through the latter stages of the period.

GFS The GFS operational this morning continues to programme a feed of troughs and shallow Low pressure across the UK through the rest of this week with rain and showers at times with some warm and bright weather too. The programmed deep Low shown to end the weekend and start to next week in previous runs is still om course to occur with a deep centre close to the NW in 5-8 days time with very windy and wet or at least showery conditions for all before the weather turns more changeable with some dry and warm days sharing supremacy over periods of cloudier and wetter conditions as Low pressure rounds an Atlantic High and SE down over the North and East of the UK which will enable the airflow to swing more NW with cooler air in tow. The GFS Ensembles this morning are in full agreement for the next week, including the deep Low early next week but later in the run there is more emphasis shown on the High to the SW affecting more of the UK with dry and fine weather towards the end of the period.

UKMO UKMO this morning has a much shallower period of synoptics but still quite unsettled with troughs moving slowly NE across the UK with spells of rain and showers at times over the next 6 days.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts have simplified their stance on the way the weather is handled over the UK this morning. With much less pressure gradient to the cyclonic SW flow shown throughout the troughs that pass over will be temporary features with the rain they bring more shortlived and each followed by bright and dry weather with light winds and quite warm conditions.

GEM The GEM operational this morning is much less dramatic in the way it handles next weeks injection of warm sub-tropical air with the basic synopses of Low pressure to the NW feeding active troughs North and East across Britain at times throughout the run and while winds look much less of a feature on this run with warm tropical air in the mix some of the rain could well be heavy at times. 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows far less deepening of depressions near the UK early next week with a spell of changeable weather with rain at times the likely outcome from the SW flow shown withthe emphasis on pressure being lowest close to NW Britain. 

ECM The ECM operational this morning brings a more enhanced look to developments at the weekend with this weeks changeable SW drift strengthening to fresh to strong cyclonic winds with heavy rain and showers crossing all areas at the weekend and beginning to next week as Low pressure deepens over the UK. This then exits NE but leaves behind a showery trough with cooler WNW winds and the best weather likely towards the SW close to the displaced Azores High.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models in general have backed off from a powerful storm next week with less wind as a result. Nevertheless, it still looks like less deep Low pressure crossing the UK will give rise to some copious rainfall in places before lessening again later in the period.

MY THOUGHTS The models have watered down the severity of the earlier programmed storm shown in earlier days output. Instead we maintain a basically unstable but often slack SW airflow though ECM does go for something rather more meaningful albeit briefly wind and rain-wise early next week. In among all this talk of rain will be some spells of reasonable weather too and it will still feel quite warm in the sunshine as winds will continue to be fed across the UK from a warm source. Later in the period the longer term models do try to promote a rebuild of High pressure from the SW as the Jet stream possibly moves back North though the procedure seems slow and arduous with showery troughs continuing to affect the UK at times right out to the end of the 15 day period in attendance with somewhat cooler NW winds. Nevertheless, holidaymakers and campers in particular will not be sorry to see the risk of gales less likely from today's output though I must include the caveat that with tropical air still likely to affect the UK for a time in the 5-7 day timeframe there is still potential for an unpleasant couple of days if the synoptics come together at the given time.

Bertha seems to be falling apart at the moment as she tracks east of Florida.

UKMO and GEM are showing the first suggestions that Bertha may not turbo-charge/engage with the jet, instead fading harmlessly into the mid-Atlantic.

Are GFS and ECM behind on things, or are they seeing something the other two aren't?

This is how uncertain ex-tropical systems tend to make things