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Stormchaser
13 August 2014 09:17:13

It doesn't get much more boring than the current outlook from a synoptic point of view; a cool flow that is mostly on the light side with the exception of Friday/Saturday, when it will probably feel like deja vu from last weekend.


At least the convective perspective is a little more interesting, with some decent potential arising from the steep lapse rates in place, particularly across the southern third of the UK where the greatest surface heating looks likely to occur 


 


Fair to say I'm very dissapointed that Bertha appears to have blown away what could have been a notably warm August for the first time in years. The only way out of that now is if the LP near the Azores becomes a more notable feature than the op runs show this morning yet manages to track to the W of the UK rather than tracking NE as seen on some runs yesterday.


It sounds greedy, but I was working intensely on my dissertation throughout much of June and July until yep, you guessed it, a Monday morning submission - Sod's law in all it's infamous might 


 


I'll make the most of the relatively uninteresting outlook to keep my mind occupied more by the here and now, and my completion of an MSc in Meteorology gives me plenty of reason to be cheerful 


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Jiries
13 August 2014 09:39:36

Looking decent this weekend for here and for a long while they been showing a decent warm BH weekend as well.   Something very unusual for Toronto to see such cool weather as they forecast of 18C tomorrow for the first time in August.  Don't ever recall seeing below 20C max in July or August.  Uppers goes down as low as 3-4C tomorrow.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Toronto_Kanada_ens.png


Agreed with the above post the stupid Bertha had destroyed the warmth air and sea temps dropping rapidly which shouldn't happen in mid August as they should start falling in mid-September. 

Devonian
13 August 2014 10:28:05


It doesn't get much more boring than the current outlook from a synoptic point of view; a cool flow that is mostly on the light side with the exception of Friday/Saturday, when it will probably feel like deja vu from last weekend.


At least the convective perspective is a little more interesting, with some decent potential arising from the steep lapse rates in place, particularly across the southern third of the UK where the greatest surface heating looks likely to occur 


 


Fair to say I'm very dissapointed that Bertha appears to have blown away what could have been a notably warm August for the first time in years. The only way out of that now is if the LP near the Azores becomes a more notable feature than the op runs show this morning yet manages to track to the W of the UK rather than tracking NE as seen on some runs yesterday.


It sounds greedy, but I was working intensely on my dissertation throughout much of June and July until yep, you guessed it, a Monday morning submission - Sod's law in all it's infamous might 


 


I'll make the most of the relatively uninteresting outlook to keep my mind occupied more by the here and now, and my completion of an MSc in Meteorology gives me plenty of reason to be cheerful 


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


It's pretty amazing how one system seems to have changed the weather entirely.


Otoh, broader atmospheric changes still stump my understanding (all this PV, short wave troughs, surfaces, teleconnections stuff...) and perhaps there was more to this change than just Berta (and I note a new low forming near Iceland to replace Bertha NE of Scotland - must be more to this profund change in the weather than a remants of a TS?). Perhaps (ex) Bertha was the symptom not the cause? And don't we seem to swing from one extreme to the other these day?


Anyway, maybe someone will write a nice article in, oh I dunno 'Weather',  explaining it all...

Whether Idle
13 August 2014 12:10:58

Looking decent this weekend for here and for a long while they been showing a decent warm BH weekend as well.   Something very unusual for Toronto to see such cool weather as they forecast of 18C tomorrow for the first time in August.  Don't ever recall seeing below 20C max in July or August.  Uppers goes down as low as 3-4C tomorrow.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Toronto_Kanada_ens.png


Agreed with the above post the stupid Bertha had destroyed the warmth air and sea temps dropping rapidly which shouldn't happen in mid August as they should start falling in mid-September. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Words of wisdom.
:-)



Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Medlock Vale Weather
13 August 2014 17:13:17

UKMO showing the cool/chilly air filtering a bit further south early next week  


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014081312/UW144-7.GIF?13-18


Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Phil 2804
13 August 2014 18:05:08



Indeed. I'd also say that the weekend just gone and a few other unsettled interludes aside, IMO this summer has been generally more settled than last year, which wasn't really that notable aside from the fortnight long heatwave last July.


Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


Can't agree with that for my part of the country. Last summer was vastly superior - much sunnier and more settled with only a wet spell in late July and late August. It was the best summer since 2003 by a wide margin. Other than July, which was warm and sunny but not that settled, this summer has been terrible especially at the weekends which have been as bad as 2007/2012. The last dry one was 31st May/1st June

There has not been a 7 day dry spell here this year which is without precedent. Depressingly, I've had just two dry days since 30th July and the outlook is shocking with some rain possible every day for the foreseeable. I've already had almost 20% more rain than the whole monthly average and with the rain that fell in Moray this is heading to be one of the wettest Augusts, if not the wettest August, on record in NE Scotland. Another hideous foul summer month in what is almost certainly going to turn out to be yet another wetter and duller than average summer.

It does look as though for once the weekend is going to see the best weather in the current outlook, though still not great this http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.gif should be reasonable for NE Scotland.

Only the briefest of respites though as things turn worse again next week. This is just disgusting httpp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif   A horrible north easterly flow there 

2014 is truly up there as one of the most awful years ever. We've endured the 2nd wettest January since 1856, the most cyclonic February and indeed most cyclonic month since at least 1862, the dullest May for over 20 years, the 7th dullest June since 1881 and now an August that almost certainly will finish in the top 10 wettest since 1856. To get so many top 10 awful months in a short space of time, with records dating back well over 100 years, is just incredulous


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 


I can only assume you weren't born and raised in the NE of Scotland. Although I live in the south of England I spent 3 weeks in July and the first 10 days of August in Aberdeenshire and everyone of my family and friends have commented on what a lovely summer its been in Aberdeenshire, and I can echo their sentiments, no scorching classic in the 1991, 1995, 2003 or 2006 sense but a very nice summer and hardly any outright wet days, you will always get convection in the NE in summer the geography of the region especially favours it and certainly in the areas around Inverurie, Oldmeldrum, Turriff and Huntly, the upshot of that is these are the areas that usually get the best of any thunderstorms.


A quick glance at Weather Online has shown me 16 days where Aberdeen airport got into the 20s during July, given the average for the month is around 18c that's not a bad summer at all, in fact its the same number of occassions as July 2013, July 2003, and six more than July 1995, July 2006 holds the record though as all but a few days saw the temperature exceed 20c and of course we had the record heatwave that month too, where Aberdeen broke its record set during August 1995. While it appears Bertha has ruined the summer for all of us, the rain  last Sunday was nothing spectacular, let me cast your mind back to September 1995 when Aberdeen Airport recorded 9 inches of rain in 72 hours as a thundery low got stuck over the region. That without question is the wettest weekend I can ever remember in my life. 


As for the winter while very wet and windy, my Dad turned 65 this year and cannot in all his 65 years recall a winter with virtually no snow and little frost in the region, in fact such has been the weather his tomatoes were about a month ahead of usual this year and many local farmers had all the winter barley in before the end of July, again almost unheard off. 

Medlock Vale Weather
13 August 2014 18:45:24

JMA shows -2 uppers close to the western isles


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014081312/J132-7.GIF?13-12


Monday looking a raw day on the east coast with some gusty winds dragging in chilly air.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014081312/J120-21.GIF?13-12


At the end of it's run it stays cool.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014081312/J192-7.GIF?13-12


 


Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Polar Low
13 August 2014 18:50:35

But we cant ever expect farmers to say its been a good year can we? never ever heard a farmer in s/e say its been a good year ever


sorry just a personal grip of mine.





Indeed. I'd also say that the weekend just gone and a few other unsettled interludes aside, IMO this summer has been generally more settled than last year, which wasn't really that notable aside from the fortnight long heatwave last July.


Originally Posted by: Phil 2804 


Can't agree with that for my part of the country. Last summer was vastly superior - much sunnier and more settled with only a wet spell in late July and late August. It was the best summer since 2003 by a wide margin. Other than July, which was warm and sunny but not that settled, this summer has been terrible especially at the weekends which have been as bad as 2007/2012. The last dry one was 31st May/1st June

There has not been a 7 day dry spell here this year which is without precedent. Depressingly, I've had just two dry days since 30th July and the outlook is shocking with some rain possible every day for the foreseeable. I've already had almost 20% more rain than the whole monthly average and with the rain that fell in Moray this is heading to be one of the wettest Augusts, if not the wettest August, on record in NE Scotland. Another hideous foul summer month in what is almost certainly going to turn out to be yet another wetter and duller than average summer.

It does look as though for once the weekend is going to see the best weather in the current outlook, though still not great this http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.gif should be reasonable for NE Scotland.

Only the briefest of respites though as things turn worse again next week. This is just disgusting httpp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif   A horrible north easterly flow there 

2014 is truly up there as one of the most awful years ever. We've endured the 2nd wettest January since 1856, the most cyclonic February and indeed most cyclonic month since at least 1862, the dullest May for over 20 years, the 7th dullest June since 1881 and now an August that almost certainly will finish in the top 10 wettest since 1856. To get so many top 10 awful months in a short space of time, with records dating back well over 100 years, is just incredulous


Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


 


I can only assume you weren't born and raised in the NE of Scotland. Although I live in the south of England I spent 3 weeks in July and the first 10 days of August in Aberdeenshire and everyone of my family and friends have commented on what a lovely summer its been in Aberdeenshire, and I can echo their sentiments, no scorching classic in the 1991, 1995, 2003 or 2006 sense but a very nice summer and hardly any outright wet days, you will always get convection in the NE in summer the geography of the region especially favours it and certainly in the areas around Inverurie, Oldmeldrum, Turriff and Huntly, the upshot of that is these are the areas that usually get the best of any thunderstorms.


A quick glance at Weather Online has shown me 16 days where Aberdeen airport got into the 20s during July, given the average for the month is around 18c that's not a bad summer at all, in fact its the same number of occassions as July 2013, July 2003, and six more than July 1995, July 2006 holds the record though as all but a few days saw the temperature exceed 20c and of course we had the record heatwave that month too, where Aberdeen broke its record set during August 1995. While it appears Bertha has ruined the summer for all of us, the rain  last Sunday was nothing spectacular, let me cast your mind back to September 1995 when Aberdeen Airport recorded 9 inches of rain in 72 hours as a thundery low got stuck over the region. That without question is the wettest weekend I can ever remember in my life. 


As for the winter while very wet and windy, my Dad turned 65 this year and cannot in all his 65 years recall a winter with virtually no snow and little frost in the region, in fact such has been the weather his tomatoes were about a month ahead of usual this year and many local farmers had all the winter barley in before the end of July, again almost unheard off. 


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Gavin P
13 August 2014 21:57:58


It's pretty amazing how one system seems to have changed the weather entirely.


 


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


I remember something similar happening in July 1993. The first half of the year had been very warm (nothing like 2014)  then an active cold front swept in during the second week of July 1993 and the temperatures stayed solidly and stubornly below average for the next five months.


It's funny how these things can happen.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Matty H
13 August 2014 22:13:35

But we cant ever expect farmers to say its been a good year can we? never ever heard a farmer in s/e say its been a good year ever


sorry just a personal grip of mine.





Indeed. I'd also say that the weekend just gone and a few other unsettled interludes aside, IMO this summer has been generally more settled than last year, which wasn't really that notable aside from the fortnight long heatwave last July.


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Can't agree with that for my part of the country. Last summer was vastly superior - much sunnier and more settled with only a wet spell in late July and late August. It was the best summer since 2003 by a wide margin. Other than July, which was warm and sunny but not that settled, this summer has been terrible especially at the weekends which have been as bad as 2007/2012. The last dry one was 31st May/1st June

There has not been a 7 day dry spell here this year which is without precedent. Depressingly, I've had just two dry days since 30th July and the outlook is shocking with some rain possible every day for the foreseeable. I've already had almost 20% more rain than the whole monthly average and with the rain that fell in Moray this is heading to be one of the wettest Augusts, if not the wettest August, on record in NE Scotland. Another hideous foul summer month in what is almost certainly going to turn out to be yet another wetter and duller than average summer.

It does look as though for once the weekend is going to see the best weather in the current outlook, though still not great this http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.gif should be reasonable for NE Scotland.

Only the briefest of respites though as things turn worse again next week. This is just disgusting httpp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif   A horrible north easterly flow there 

2014 is truly up there as one of the most awful years ever. We've endured the 2nd wettest January since 1856, the most cyclonic February and indeed most cyclonic month since at least 1862, the dullest May for over 20 years, the 7th dullest June since 1881 and now an August that almost certainly will finish in the top 10 wettest since 1856. To get so many top 10 awful months in a short space of time, with records dating back well over 100 years, is just incredulous


Originally Posted by: Phil 2804 


 


I can only assume you weren't born and raised in the NE of Scotland. Although I live in the south of England I spent 3 weeks in July and the first 10 days of August in Aberdeenshire and everyone of my family and friends have commented on what a lovely summer its been in Aberdeenshire, and I can echo their sentiments, no scorching classic in the 1991, 1995, 2003 or 2006 sense but a very nice summer and hardly any outright wet days, you will always get convection in the NE in summer the geography of the region especially favours it and certainly in the areas around Inverurie, Oldmeldrum, Turriff and Huntly, the upshot of that is these are the areas that usually get the best of any thunderstorms.


A quick glance at Weather Online has shown me 16 days where Aberdeen airport got into the 20s during July, given the average for the month is around 18c that's not a bad summer at all, in fact its the same number of occassions as July 2013, July 2003, and six more than July 1995, July 2006 holds the record though as all but a few days saw the temperature exceed 20c and of course we had the record heatwave that month too, where Aberdeen broke its record set during August 1995. While it appears Bertha has ruined the summer for all of us, the rain  last Sunday was nothing spectacular, let me cast your mind back to September 1995 when Aberdeen Airport recorded 9 inches of rain in 72 hours as a thundery low got stuck over the region. That without question is the wettest weekend I can ever remember in my life. 


As for the winter while very wet and windy, my Dad turned 65 this year and cannot in all his 65 years recall a winter with virtually no snow and little frost in the region, in fact such has been the weather his tomatoes were about a month ahead of usual this year and many local farmers had all the winter barley in before the end of July, again almost unheard off. 


Originally Posted by: richardabdn 

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 




You have no idea how much I agree. Other jobs are available.

In the meantime, looks rather unsettled, but the frosty smileys are beyond misleading 🙄

doctormog
14 August 2014 07:11:28
In short up here, August has ben a bit rubbish but June was OK and July was great - I spent much of it working in the garden and while not always warm sunshine it was frequently warm and sunny. No complaints from me except that it ended too soon!

On that subject, I think the outlook could be described as generally cool, breezy, showery and unsettled. Could be worse but it could be much better.
cultman1
14 August 2014 07:28:50
Even here in Fulham it is exceptionally cool for mid August at 12 degrees at 8am with rain already threatening. Unquestionably for London I believe August will turn out to be much cooler than norma,l breezy and numerous showery periods. I doubt very much we will see 25 degrees or higher now for the remainder of the month due to the weather being in a locked pattern resulting in cool NW winds... horrible weather......
idj20
14 August 2014 07:44:07

Even here in Fulham it is exceptionally cool for mid August at 12 degrees at 8am with rain already threatening. Unquestionably for London I believe August will turn out to be much cooler than norma,l breezy and numerous showery periods. I doubt very much we will see 25 degrees or higher now for the remainder of the month due to the weather being in a locked pattern resulting in cool NW winds... horrible weather......

Originally Posted by: cultman1 



If Retron is still about here on TWO, he would be rubbing his hands in delight by now. 

Yes, the short term stuff does look a bit underwhelming for sunlovers and beach goers as things stand, but nights are going to be so lovely to sleep in.
However, to my untrained (and ageing) eyes, the latest model runs (GFS in particular) does seem to be showing a bit more high pressure about in the longer terms (next week and beyond) - even if they are all in the "wrong places". I'll stick my neck out and say that I reckon there is still a chance for temperatures to creep into the mid 20's before this month is out. 
Or it could turn out to be like 1985 when August was generally quite rubbish by often being cool and showery in nature, but as soon as kids went back to School in September - yep, you guessed it, it turned out much more summer-like. It even lead to a heatwave in October!

EDIT: Just had another look at GFS - ah, yes, does look a little less inspiring now. Even the mighty ECM, who loves overcooking things beyond 144 hours also seem to be in agreement.


Folkestone Harbour. 
The Beast from the East
14 August 2014 08:10:14



If Retron is still about here on TWO, he would be rubbing his hands in delight by now. 


Originally Posted by: idj20 


And me as well. Its been an uncomforable summer for sleeping and travelling on tube trains and thank heavens its all over!


Roll on Winter


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Charmhills
14 August 2014 08:27:04



It's pretty amazing how one system seems to have changed the weather entirely.


 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


I remember something similar happening in July 1993. The first half of the year had been very warm (nothing like 2014)  then an active cold front swept in during the second week of July 1993 and the temperatures stayed solidly and stubornly below average for the next five months.


It's funny how these things can happen.


Originally Posted by: Devonian 


Its almost as if Bertha has flushed out the northwestern atmosphere.


 


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Whether Idle
14 August 2014 10:56:25

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif


A relatively benign if cool scenario depicted by the highly rated ECM.


with the 6z GFS following:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif


 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
14 August 2014 11:35:45
I wonder if the coming week to 10 days may see the first flakes of snow fall on the highest Scottish summits? (4000ft or so)

Either way it doesn't feel like summer any more. I hope it comes back!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif 
Scandy 1050 MB
14 August 2014 13:06:43




If Retron is still about here on TWO, he would be rubbing his hands in delight by now. 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


And me as well. Its been an uncomforable summer for sleeping and travelling on tube trains and thank heavens its all over!


Roll on Winter


Originally Posted by: idj20 


You're not alone, really liking this cooler weather and some chilly nights for the time of the year possible this coming week -  June was fine but July was so humid at times it became very difficult to get work done - great if you had holidays but not if you had to work. Two good months out of a British summer isn't bad and I'd hardly call the current weather a washout.


CET is taking a battering from its start of the month value and GFS as others have commented has now dropped the idea of HP building in at the end of the run, but I'm sure it will be back as deep FI. Bertha could be coincidental as the cause but its like someone has flicked a switch and the HP has gone from the north east:


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html


A trough just to the east of us will ensure a northerly or north westerly flow so keeping things cool for the next 10 days at least. And pressure still high over Greenland - unusual as Gavin P noted in his video the other day - certainly not boring weather at the moment and some beefy convectional potential also.


 


 

Gavin P
14 August 2014 13:25:36

Hi all,


Here's today's video update:


Cool Air Digging In + BCC Winter 14/15 Update


http://www.gavsweathervids.com


If you like your weather on the "cooler side" this is one for you.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Sinky1970
14 August 2014 13:55:33
Pattern seems pretty well set now, may as well prepare for autumn as any real heat fails to make it anywhere near our shores now.
ARTzeman
14 August 2014 14:06:59

Certainly getting cooler nights coming sooner than we would like looking ahead a week or so.....






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
cultman1
14 August 2014 14:08:50
cooler days as well for at least the rest of this month! Just had hailstones shower in Fulham and temp dropped to 16 degrees following the storm
Saint Snow
14 August 2014 14:33:29

Well I think it's clear now that August will be a total write-off. A massive disappointment given a decent June and nice July.


An entire month without any 'beach weather' harks back to the dreadful 2007-2012 period of dismal summers



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gusty
14 August 2014 15:13:14

I've been in Cornwall for nearly a week...with still over two weeks left ! .


Its the first time I've logged on to check the models in 7 days and all I can say is....err, where's that Azores High ? 


The next couple of weeks is looking more of the same...cool and breezy with a mixture of sunshine and showers. The good thing is that there is 5 or 6 hours of sunshine per day down here, the drawback is that there are 5 or 6 showers per day to go with it too. 


The CET will take a hammering this month. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Saint Snow
14 August 2014 15:16:35

The good thing is that there is 5 or 6 hours of sunshine per day down here, the drawback is that there are 5 or 6 showers per day to go with it too. 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


 


That's the killer isn't it? I'd rather have mild anticyclonic gloom than sunshine & showers. The rain just ruins all plans.


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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