Too early to write off the 3rd and 4th weeks of August, BUT the models do appear to have taken a turn towards the unsettled cyclonic and cool side in FI.

If this morning's model output verifies, I reckon there must be a chance that this month will break the recent run of above average temperature months in the UK, a run that I believe started last December.

Caution required as the ensembles reveal scatter, though the models are almost agreeing with eachother this morning, so unsettled could be the theme...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

The thing is I was thinking the samething.

It looks changeable and fairly cool for some considerable time to come.

That's probably about it, other than that temps in August are not usually much different to July by day or night. Certainly not Autumnal. Very rarely do they stray below the long term average for more than a few days - this year may be different. When I think of Autumnal it's the first sign of frosts and dense fog - that sort of thing never happens in August. Or when the nights become longer than the days in September. I guess we all think about these things differently!

Hmmm...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1922.gif

GEM shows warm and dry weather in the south at this point

Think you're right there - looking at the 12z model outputs the best of Summer is probably behind us now and came at the right time with the longer days instead of the weird end of September 2011 heatwave! - we can't complain though it's been good compared to the crap Summers of 2007-2012.

Indeed. I'd also say that the weekend just gone and a few other unsettled interludes aside, IMO this summer has been generally more settled than last year, which wasn't really that notable aside from the fortnight long heatwave last July.

Huge discrepancies on last night's model runs and I expect these to be amplified this morning, as BG says on his Buzz, its all up for grabs after the weekend.  As we say in winter, FI starts as early as t96.

WI

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8PM TODAY TUESDAY AUGUST 12TH 2014.

NEXT EXCLUSIVE 'MY THOUGHTS' UPDATE ON MY WEBSITE FROM 22:00HRS TONIGHT

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A deep Low to the NE of Scotland will fill slowly and edge away to the NE. A showery Westerly flow over the UK will be maintained.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable and sometimes windy and cool with showers and some longer outbreaks of rain at times. Perhaps drier across the South later.

THE JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow continuing to blow strongly across Northern France before weakening but maintaining a general path East across the Atlantic and the British Isles. the flow becomes more fragmentary later and less well defined.

GFS The GFS operational today generally maintains a changeable and sometimes rather cool theme as this week's cool and showery theme in NW winds give way to a drier interlude over the South at the weekend. through next week a vigorous Low pressure is shown over Southern Britain with wind and rain as a result before it moves slowly away NE and in its wake comes a rise of pressure albeit slowly with warmer and drier weather easing north as a result. The GFS Ensembles show an endorsement to the operational with just a difference in positioning in High pressure at the end of the run which is too far out to comment on confidently.

UKMO UKMO this morning show new Low pressure easing down to the North early next week with the better weekend giving way to further cool weather with rain and showers in blustery west winds to start next week.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a weakening showery WNW flow through the rest of the working week with a ridge of high pressure covering many areas at the weekend.

GEM The GEM operational today shows a fine and warmer weekend across the South extending into next week too here while the North and West in particular shows more unsettled and breezy weather returning from the Atlantic with rain at times. 

NAVGEM NAVGEM has a brief respite from the showers at the weekend as a ridge of high pressure crosses through before a Low pressure bekt edges down from the NW early next week with the return of wind and rain at times for all. 

ECM The ECM operational this morning maintains a basically cool and showery theme throughout it's run this morning with Low pressure close to the North and NE of the UK throughout with a cool West or NW flow carrying showers through at times plus the odd spell of more prolonged rain. There will of course some pleasantly dry and brighter interludes as well but it never looks like being overly warm.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are no definitive changes of trend shown between the models from what was being shown yesterday.

MY THOUGHTS  Through the outlook period this morning it looks like that changeable weather will persist across all areas of the UK with rain at times in an often cool West or NW breeze. Some output shows another vigorous Low pressure close to the UK around the middle of next week which would bring about a new spell of wet and very windy weather. Others including the well respected ECM tend to prefer a continuation of Low pressure NE of the UK with cool and showery NW winds. There is a hint of more High pressure from some output building North across the UK later in week 2 but at this range this feature is very embryonic and will need to come much closer to the reliable timeframe as well as spread through other output to guarantee it occurring.

Discrepancies? perhaps I should have gone to specsavers  and it looks like any amplification you expected has been abruptly deflated! nothing particularly Summery on the horizon looking at the main models.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

Cool And Mixed Next Week To Ten Day's

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Thinking we may have had the best that Summer 2014 has to offer, though you never know for sure...

I think you will find Vision Express more handy.

Can't agree with that for my part of the country. Last summer was vastly superior - much sunnier and more settled with only a wet spell in late July and late August. It was the best summer since 2003 by a wide margin. Other than July, which was warm and sunny but not that settled, this summer has been terrible especially at the weekends which have been as bad as 2007/2012. The last dry one was 31st May/1st June

There has not been a 7 day dry spell here this year which is without precedent. Depressingly, I've had just two dry days since 30th July and the outlook is shocking with some rain possible every day for the foreseeable. I've already had almost 20% more rain than the whole monthly average and with the rain that fell in Moray this is heading to be one of the wettest Augusts, if not the wettest August, on record in NE Scotland. Another hideous foul summer month in what is almost certainly going to turn out to be yet another wetter and duller than average summer.

It does look as though for once the weekend is going to see the best weather in the current outlook, though still not great this http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.gif should be reasonable for NE Scotland.

Only the briefest of respites though as things turn worse again next week. This is just disgusting httpp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif   A horrible north easterly flow there 

2014 is truly up there as one of the most awful years ever. We've endured the 2nd wettest January since 1856, the most cyclonic February and indeed most cyclonic month since at least 1862, the dullest May for over 20 years, the 7th dullest June since 1881 and now an August that almost certainly will finish in the top 10 wettest since 1856. To get so many top 10 awful months in a short space of time, with records dating back well over 100 years, is just incredulous

Richard, virtually every time you have commented on the weather in your area in this forum over several years you have been complaining! It makes me think that either you have unrealistic expectations of our weather or you are making a lot of it up.

The last few days aside, I'd be very, very surprised if Aberdeen has had a summer that has been so much worse than anywhere else. My area, the first two weeks of June and the last few days aside, has had a pretty decent summer and certainly much better than anything we had from 2007 up to and including 2012. Summer 2012 was what I'd call truly dreadful and was as bad as any other poor summer I can remember in the last 25+ years.

JMA looks chilly for some of us, quite notable for the time of year, some frost likely for Scottish valley's and glens 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014081212/J180-7.GIF?12-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014081212/J132-21.GIF?12-12

Yup, I was looking at the later stages and favouring its settled but cooler offerings:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1921.gif

I would take this for my Welsh holiday from this distance!

[quote=Medlock Vale Weather;623565]

JMA looks chilly for some of us, quite notable for the time of year, some frost likely for Scottish valley's and glens 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014081212/J180-7.GIF?12-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014081212/J132-21.GIF?12-12

[/quoteYes , certainly post ex-hurricane Bertha the pattern has changed to cooler and more unsettled at times. Some of the August forecasts predicting another warmer than average month might not come right.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8PM TODAY WEDNESDAY AUGUST 13TH 2014.

NEXT EXCLUSIVE 'MY THOUGHTS' UPDATE ON MY WEBSITE FROM 22:00HRS TONIGHT

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A deep Low to the NE of Scotland will fill slowly and edge away to the NE. A showery Westerly flow will veer NW over the UK today and weaken.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable and sometimes cool with showers and some longer outbreaks of rain at times. Some drier and brighter periods too.

THE JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow likely to be maintained blowing West to East across Southern Britain or Northern France for the period this morning though rather weaker than currently.

GFS The GFS operational today shows a changeable run with ow pressure never far away from UK shores throughout the entire run. Some high pressure is also shown in the mix at times crossing over from the West over the South in Week 2 but becomes displaced by more Low pressure  late in the run. The Ensembles this morning are a fair representation of the operational run in it's continuing changeable theme across all areas.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a cool NW or North breeze and further sunshine and showers to start next week.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a weakening showery flow at the end of the week before a High pressure ridge crosses the UK on Saturday ahead of complex troughs and Low pressure sinking down from the NW over the UK at the end of the weekend and by the start of next week.

GEM The GEM operational today generally maintains the pattern of High pressure to the West and SW of the UK and lower or Low pressure to the North and the NE. The resultant flow blowing down from the North or NW will ensure a lot of bright and at times breezy weather with sunshine and occasional rain or showers with temperatures held at or just below average. 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too has a breezy and cool end to the weekend with some showers with further unsettled weather likely next week with as Low pressure edges over Southern britain from the SW. 

ECM The ECM operational today shows mostly winds from a NW point through the period with a mix of sunshine and occasional showers as a reult due to High pressure largely centred to the West or SW of Britain and Low pressure to the North and NE

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The changeable theme illustrated by previous runs is maintained today meaning no definitive trend changes this today.

MY THOUGHTS  The weather looks likely to remain changeable over the coming two weeks as all models illustrate their own version of handling various areas of Low pressure and their own batch of rain and showers putting all areas at risk. Some drier and brighter spells are likely too as High pressure attempts to ridge up across Southern Britain at times especially in Week 2. All models show winds predominating from a mostly NW and occasionally Northerly point with cool and breezy air suppressing temperatures to average levels at best for the majority of the period.

The CET will continue to head southwards!

Could be on course for the first below average month for sometime.