I am really desperate for a spell of weather like jan 1987 or feb 1991

In my opinion a winter with a week of severe weather like those years in an otherwise boring winter is more memorable than a winter with cool to cold temperatures and snow free

You remember the severe wintery spells in classic years which stick in the memory - not endless cool or fairly cold snow-free weather

Not seen anything as severe here since those years - long overdue you would think

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We seem to be in a pattern of several months in a row being above or below average.

Question is will August be a one off or are we into another below average sequence?

I think the latter...but my position in the yearly table shows I don't have a clue really

 

 

 

I think the sequence of months being above or below average goes back an extremely long time!

 

 

Sorry - I know what you mean really. And you're right. We've not been flip-flopping monthly between above and below for a while, with particular general prevailing conditions being with us for longer spells than we've seen at times. Then again, it wasn';t that long ago when we'd have the Euro-High plonking its unpleasant arse over the continent for months at a time (generally winter ones), feeding us a long track of SW'lies.

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I'm not sure I'm happy with a winter thread in the 2nd/3rd week of August?

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Ah, well MBY was blessed on both occassions! And on Jan 10, too.

If summer 2010 would have had a long, dry, sunny spell in July/Aug, then it would have been the most amazing 13 months of weather of my lifetime (a depressing 42 years and counting)

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Well it sure don't feel like summer here!

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I  bet there is no snow on Dec 09, 10 or 14.   Or any other day ....

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Looks over towards Siberia........ Can't see anything yet

I wouldn't be at all suprised if it's another mild one but I would be suprised if I didn't see any snow again during winter here.

A typical Feb freeze will do

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Actually we do have a very tiny patch of snow on the Siberian Plane already;

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

I've been checking these images out for over a decade and this is by far the easliest a snow patch has appeared - Normally it's late August or early September.

It's so early I'm sure it'll melt, but it's interesting none the less.

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With my very limited knowledge the fact that it is covering ( my earlier post was tongue in cheek ) so early you would think it be a great sign if that extends into Scandi, almost too good to be true this early?

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I left it for comedy. Other than that it has no other value.

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... Next it'll be a Christmas Thread in October

I think most think because we have had a dodgy week of weather this summer it's now a very short lived Autumn they are suffering .... Gotta say that although a few hefty showers today has been nice here when the sun came out  

 

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I think I'll wait until November before showing any interest in winter 14/15.

There is of course Autumn to get through first!

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My winter forecast will be guaranteeing that large parts of southern England do NOT see less snow than last winter. It's not often possible to offer such certainty in long range forecasting. 

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Matty H came up with the best reply to this thread, "utterly pointless". Why start a thread about winter on 13th August? Oh I forgot, Sriram started it. 

 

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Well I always look at sea temperatures off the coast of Eastern Canada. They appear to be worse (i.e. above normal) than last year.

The form horse for me is unremitting Atlantic driven shite.

Not sure... but we have had a succession of summers where the northern blocking finally arrives and at the worst times (summer months) leading to extensive rainfall and cooler winds. Then Winter arrives and pressure falls to the north.

Last years issues were a cold Eastern seaboard and warm seas in the north west atlantic... this seems to be the same setup this year (so far - might change) With central eastern areas of US expected to bare the brunt of the US cold., however there seems to be a bit more hurricane activity which might mop this warmth up. in the Atlantic. We will see.

I suspect an average winter. with an average amount of Storms. average Frosts, average snowfall, mostly on hills, suspect later winter snowfalls for lower regions. (average)

If we get an average winter - i suspect we will see more northerly topplers. Which was the main snowfall contributer to the winters of 1990s-2000s We havent seen many of these for a few years now, i suspect we will see these a few more times this year. As in my experience this is much more common for the UK.

Also - interestingly as Brian G sometimes points out on his buzz - Cold winters tend to cluster together... I wonder if we are now out of that cluster period, and infact will reflect on the winters of 2008 til 2011 as the cluster that happened.

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i'd have thought that was a given as it's impossible to see less snow than last winters no snow

Yes that was wht I meant.  Not one flake of snow fell here last winter.

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We did have a couple of winters where some really good wintry spells came from periods of northern blocking, which caused the Jet to buckle, at times in exactly the right place for us.

IMO, a very active Atlantic coupled with strong northerly blocking would be very interesting. A cold feed from the north and lows on a southerly track have been rather productive in the past in terms of snow

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I'll go for two in a row

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I for one don't mind threads like this, you can start a Summer 15 in Feb 2015 for all I care aslong as it gets discussion going amongst members on here.

It can be quiet at times so threads like this get people talking, and good for those like myself that don't have the knowledge to comment in the MO thread.

I really wouldn't be suprised if we get a cool Autumn which rules out an Indian Summer and then you bet your life as soon as Proper Winter starts it turns mild.

One thing I did enjoy last Winter was the odd ocassion standing outside our local pub with a pint in just a sweater..... rare as most the time needed a waterproof jacket lol .. The amount of times we got absolutely drenched going to and from the pub, but with the open fire going in there it made it cosy, plus gave us all an excuse to stay a bit longer, just incase the rain stopped etc

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But last Autumn was mild and looked at how that turned out, I think the only correlation I can find is Winter follows Autumn.

I don't want to make any sorts of predictions yet, it's still too early. It would be nice to see at least 1 lovely deep snow cover and then a solid freeze below -10C .... then the snow lasting for many days afterwards in the weak Winter sun, picture postcard then a reload of snow, rinse and repeat 

 

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Not had a proper Scandinavian high type winter for some years. The type where the main cold spells come via an easterly. Recent ones have either been mediocre (Jan 2010), short lived (Feb 09) or came at the start (late Nov 2010) or end (late Feb 05) of the season.

Last decent one in the heart of winter was late January 1996.

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