I'll shortly be adding a number of GEFS plots of European and North Atlantic locations to the TWO chart viewer (http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx). Hopefully these should be useful during the winter months to get a feel for how things are developing.

Today's 6z plots for Greenland (quite a central location), Moscow and Warsaw.     

Tonight's outputs so far have all brought High pressure back close to the South next week so it may not be so bad in the South in terms of rainfall and wind with temperatures on the plus side of average still. Ensemble runs will tell whether the operational's are a one off, coincidence or part of a new trend. One thing no output shows is anything cold at the moment.

Its a bit early for cold GIBBY only October 15th.

Oh I'm well aware of that Duane but it is early enough to see quiet Anticyclonic weather under a cold High promoting frosts and fogs at night lasting well into the mornings now and it was that type of cold to which I was referring rather than anything more exciting.

 Nice it will be useful

You cant fool me Martin you don't like the cold one bit  

Quite a nice ECM 240 chart.

Yawn.

Beyond this weekend's unusually mild conditions the weather is looking very unremarkable for the foreseeable, with low pressure systems tracking past Scotland while high pressure has a loose influence on the south, keeping things drier but not achieving much else - temperatures varying around the long term average overall.

The 06z GFS hinted at LP west of Iberia having more of a say in things, which would be more interesting, but there's no sign of that in any of the 12z op runs.

In the absence of anything unusual going on like we've been having lately, I'll be verging on hibernation unless things pick up by the end of the month 

At least it's been an interesting month so far, with tonight possibly continuing the theme as the now well-organised feature into the SW seems to have some particularly intense rainfall and a bit of electrification associated with it.

It is shocking, given the assurances from the popular press that snow and frost would engulf the country by the end of October, that the concensus of output maintains fairly mild and often wet conditions for the foreseeable.

Conditions close to what I'd call a 'zonal Bartlett' showing up on some of the output. In the second half of autumn and winter this is the most boring pattern in the book for the south of England IMO. 

Nothing very exciting about this morning's output for any weather enthusiast but for those who can bear it my morning report is here.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Stuttgart_ens.png

Couldn't ask for a better weather that really bang on timing for my visit to Gunzburg, Germany tomorrow for the weekend trip and back on Monday.  Showing very warm uppers, dry and sunny weather on Sat/Sun there.  Likely to wear shorts and sandals over there and Stuttgart ensembles is the nearest city to know the forecast.  Here going for 22C this weekend a last fling of summery weather.

We had our weather excitment last winter with those twelve storms plus, plus we had lightning and thunder this year something i've not seen for years on top of a good summer...

Please don't wear socks or a string vest with that 

Conditions close to what I'd call a 'zonal Bartlett' showing up on some of the output. In the second half of autumn and winter this is the most boring pattern in the book for the south of England IMO. 

Originally Posted by: sizzle 

could not agree more 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Well well well, the old ZB getting its act together? I am not too sure if it's quite that simple,  but I for one wouldn't bet against it! 

On no, Brian's dreaded 'zonal Bartlett' from the mid 2000's, how many of us on TWO suffered months under the ZB beast.

Mind you if it's a choice between the zonal Bartlett and the raging zonality of last winter I think I will take the Bartlett!

Andy

Good morning. Winds anchored to a Westerly point is the theme of todays output and we all know the 'Mild' word is going to be featured a lot over the next few weeks. Here's todays report.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Hate westerlies

The N Wales mountains channel bands of PPN across the N Wales coast and into Merseyside/Cheshire/Gtr Manchester/S Lancs

Much prefer it with a SW'ly component as the same Welsh mountains put us in a rain shadow

Anyway, we're hosting a party on the 31st for eldest daughter's birthday and I'm putting up a marquee (kitted out inside like a spooky witch's cave) so I need calm and, ideally, dry on the 30th & 31st.

Looking ahead toward this period, GFS looks absolutely rubbish, whilst out to 240z, ECM looks great.

Hope ECM's right on this one

ECM 10 Day Mean remains focused on mild SW'lies with conditions best in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Conditions close to what I'd call a 'zonal Bartlett' showing up on some of the output. In the second half of autumn and winter this is the most boring pattern in the book for the south of England IMO. 

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

could not agree more 

Originally Posted by: sizzle 

Well well well, the old ZB getting its act together? I am not too sure if it's quite that simple,  but I for one wouldn't bet against it! 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

October 17th and concerns about Winter???

Far too early for all that

All I'm going to say is back in early Nov 2010 I was sitting in warm sunshine and would never of imagined what I was going to face at the end of the month no matter what any chart was suggesting, FI or not FI.

Things can change very quickly, we have only just gone halfway through Autumn, 48hrs since the Anniversary of the Great Storm of 87, ...keep the faith 

Yes and mid month was very wet and windy. Then BANG! a huge change. 

Hmm! Been thinking the same! Big freeze in December2010, followed by mild new year. However it'll probably do the opposite knowing our weather...