The models are showing little run to run consistency regarding where the low heights move about beyond the middle of next week. This morning's ECM and GFS runs are focusing it to our NW, which favours a continuation of mostly mild conditions with spells of rain...

...but not nearly as mild as we've been getting used to, with maximums in the low teens, and also not persistently unsettled.

The reason? A major blocking high to our east. This feature has been upgraded substantially over the past few days, and is now being shown to be of the magnitude needed to have an impact on the Arctic height pattern, for the most part attempting to displace the low heights from the pole toward the Pacific or U.S.

If it succeeded, the pattern would likely shift westward as GFS shows late on in the 00z run.

A classic slow burner and infamous for bringing deep continental cold our way only for something to cut it off before it reaches us 

What's more interesting to me is the potential for the stratospheric vortex to come under attack from wave breaking related to such blocking (waves of relatively warm air being deflected upward by mountains or colder surface air, pushing up into the stratosphere and leading to anomalous warmth there).

With so much uncertainty regarding where the polar vortex focuses in the 7-10 day timeframe, this blocking to the east could be a red herring. On the other hand, it could turn out to be even stronger than the 00z runs show.

Meteorology would be no fun if we could see it all coming 

Always the voice of reason. Mild Continues and I am happy with that !

Wow the MO has actually got worse, we actually have bartletts developing on both the GFS and ECM. On the bright side it could be pleasantly warm at times. 

TWO GEFS 850hPa plots now also show snow. The scale is 0 to 23. 0 means no runs are suggesting snow, 23 means all are. This includes the GFS op run which has to be regridded, so isn't quite consistent, but good enough. London isn't showing much snow at the moment. To illustrate here's the Greenland one:

nah, more like Greece and the Balkans LOL

On a serious note though a few colder signals are now starting to appear on a more regular basis. Perhaps something may be afoot deep in FI?

The NMM model has temperatures exceeding 22C in quite a big area from Cambridge up to Holbeach tomorrow afternoon.

The Halloween date record will be well and truly smashed. Shame it is not 1 November tomorrow as we would also break the all time November temperature record.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014103012/nmm_uk1-41-26-0.png?30-18

Could still exceed 19C in parts of Essex and Suffolk on Saturday so the 1 Nov date record (19.7C) could still be under threat

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2014103012/nmmuk-0-49-0.png?30-18

One never knows, Jacko, I recall that at this time back in 2010, the model output generally all looked fairly mundane and there was little if any indication then of what began to develop in the second half of that November.

One thing I found out about the models several years ago is that sometimes, just as with the weather itself, the model output can change quite dramatically, and sometimes very quickly.

Indeed - in early and mid November 2010 our fence got blown down those two times via deep Atlantic pressure systems, then look what happened at the end of the month. I think it was about the 18th-19th November when we started to see something special that was likely to come our way.

Good morning folks. A few records possibly broken today methinks but will this warmth return? Here's my morning take on the 00zs.

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Finally not on a train, and the 06 GFS Op gives us all something to drawl over...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=0&carte=1 

(not in terms of our own temps but synoptically you couldn't wish for anything better for mid November)

Dayum!

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20141031/06/384/h850t850eu.png

On a serious note, this could go either way, could it end up being one of many events we see permanently pinned to FI like weve sen in the past many times.... usually i have to learn how to deal with every winter....  Or is it something which has been hinting at since the summer in the CFS with the northern blocking theme?  slowly coming to fruition

GFS keeps the mild away for up here for the entire 6Z 

In fact it could be a pretty cold and potentially snowy run for us from around the 7th but all too far away for me yet.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=372&mode=0

Nice to look at for now as we know by by the time we get there we will have a roaring SW'ly

That really is a good run Nov 2010 esque. Have to wait and see if its repeated but signs looking OK at the moment.

Ha! GFS must have remembered to get me a present after all - epic 06z run with the jet tracking south by the end of higher-res and increasingly strong high latitude blocking through FI 

ECM is a total contrast, not pleased with that one 

The key differences start as early as day 5, which is when the 06z GFS op run starts to show some trough disruption with the jet undercutting higher heights to the NE of the UK.

I see from the archive that the GFS 00z was more like the ECM 00z. It sure is a dramatic change... hopefully a realistic response to some stratospheric warming being signaled (not a big one though, certainly not what we call a sudden stratospheric warming or SSW).

If not, never mind, and thanks anyway for a bit of entertainment GFS 

The op and control aren't all that spectacular, but both show attacks on the PV even if they don't end up conducive for us. and SOME of those ensembles (albeit only 5 or 6) are fantasy stuff. Might be nothing, but lots of welcome variation and tantalising possibilities in the outlook. Entertaining if nothing else, so long as none of the other big boys come to the party.

EDIT: Interesting that the first signs of warming in the strat also appear in the op and parallel towards the end of the 12Z. Might, MIGHT, explain why these interesting splodges of fantasy synoptics keep appearing

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

Might as well throw in a chart from the deepest FI

Blocking in the Atlantic up into Greenland lots of potential

But that is all it is.

Would be nice to see these places turn much colder soon, not looking likely at the moment. Still FI is subject to change.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Warschau_ens.png - Warsaw

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Helsinki_ens.png - Helsinki

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Moskau_ens.png - Moscow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Kiew_ens.png - Kiev

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Bukarest_ens.png - Bucharest

Still nothing of interest in the model runs, the ECM is showing absolutely no signs of anything that people will appreciate. The GFS is marginally better this time though, with the jet being somewhat further south. Actually when I say marginally better, thats assuming you don't like copius rain, because the jet stream is now looking more on top of the UK rather than significantly to the north. A glimmer of hope right at the end of FI with heights over greenland but no consistency between runs makes it irrelevant.

Rain: Plenty - Snow: 0

no need for concern if you look at some of the 06Z GFS ensemble members. Ooooozes potential IMO

It could be an interesting build up to winter with these signs of blocking. I'm also looking forward to the coming model watching season and shamefully admit that I'm a coldie who migrates back into the forum each November (although I do hover over the threads the rest of the year).

Sadly it looks like the current slow moving pattern means LP systems stagnating over or close to the UK. A wet November is definitely on the cards.