HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY NOVEMBER 6TH 2014.

NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY NOVEMBER 7TH 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A series of fronts with strong Southerly winds ahead of them will cross East over the UK today and tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Generally unsettled and rather windy at times with rain or showers. Temperatures look like staying generally quite close to average though it will feel rather chilly at times. Perhaps becoming drier and milder in the South later.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast continues to show the flow crossing East over the Atlantic near to 50 deg North over the coming two weeks. This means the UK will be on the Northern side of the flow before it trends just very slightly North over Southern Britain at the end of the prediction.

GFS OPERATIONAL Today's operational run shows the UK being home to complex Low pressure feeding in from the NW Atlantic and settling over or just to the NW of the UK. The net result would be spells of rain and showers with just brief drier and brighter spells, more particularly for a period at the start of Week 2 as something of a ridge develops for a time across the South. By the end of the run we are back to square 1 with a strong West flow over the Atlantic under a deep low to the NW with rain bearing troughs crossing East over the UK in average temperatures throughout.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run suggests little difference from the operational in Week 1 but moves forward to indicate somewhat more influence of High pressure either as a ridge from High pressure to the East or the South with less rainfall as a result and perhaps a little more in the way of frost and fog patches briefly. Overall though the pattern remains an Atlantic driven pattern though.

THE GFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles also complimentary to their other runs in respect to the favoured option being Low pressure coming in from the West frequently and becoming slow moving over or just to the West of the UK with much rain and showers in strong and blustery winds as a result. The Ensembles also shows a tendency to rise pressure over Southern Britain late in the period with drier weather with overnight mist and fog possibilities replacing the wind and rain that will continue in the far North and West

UKMO UKMO today shows a deep Low pressure area moving ESE over the Atlantic to lie just West of Ireland by midweek with an unstable and strong Southerly flow over the UK carrying spells of heavy rain or thundery showers North and NE across the UK in temperatures close to average.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts shows a series of fronts and depressions moving gently East across the UK over the next 5 days with rain and showers at times in sometimes strong and blustery winds from between South and West though these are shown to decrease early next week.

GEM GEM looks very disturbed this morning with a procession of Low pressure and fronts moving across the Atlantic and setting up shop just to the West of Ireland and pushing troughs East across the UK with heavy rain and showers for all in often strong and blustery winds and average temperatures.

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows active Low pressure moving in towards NW Ireland at the start of next week with strong SW winds and rain as a result being all too common throughout the run this morning.

JMA JMA is not fully issued at time of publish but the first 5 days show a similar pattern to the rest as Low pressure from the NW dominates the UK weather with rain and showers in average temperatures.

ECM ECM feeds Low pressure down the Western side of the UK next week with strong South or SW winds and heavy rain at times as a result. It then takes the Lows back north and migrates the deep centres further to the NW than early in the run which allows pressure to rise somewhat in the South with the heaviest rain and strongest winds returning towards the North and West with the chance of some drier spells in the South and East in temperatures never far from average and perhaps a shade above in the South later.

THE ECM ENSEMBLES The ECM Ensembles are basically unchanged from recent runs and shows a more defined trough than the operational stretching from Greenland to the British Isles and down to Italy which indicates a continuation of unsettled weather with rain at times for all throughout the next 10 days.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains for a sustained period of wet weather across the UK with a slow trend later perhaps towards drier conditions moving into Southern and SE parts later with no cold weather shown by any model.

MY THOUGHTS The main concern illustrated by the models this morning is the rather persistent Low pressure lying slow moving over or near the UK with the cumulative effect of heavy rainfall events through the period covered by the models. All models usher in Low pressure from the NW and stalling close to the UK with each bringing strong winds and heavy rain and showers as result. With winds illustrated mainly from a South or SW quarter temperatures will not be an issue with average temperatures as a result on most days. The only chink of light this morning is the chance of a rise of pressure across the South later in week 2 with rather drier and relatively mild weather as a result should this verify. The ECM operational is the leader in this aspect which is a reversal on the Northern blocking that was shown by it yesterday and this morning's offering is closer to a GFS type solution though this solution is less supported by it's own ensemble pack. However, with so much volatility over the Atlantic and Low pressure steered towards the UK on a slightly further South Jet Stream than the norm predictions beyond a week should be treated tentatively at this time but as it stands this morning the UK is unlikely to experience any cold weather this side of the last week of the month as some of the building blocks hinted at early in the week have taken an early collapse and the shift towards rising pressure over parts of Europe has grown.

Generally looking very unsettled with temps close to average at times and a fair bit of rain for most.

Standard November weather really.

i fear the models are slowly turning from a north atlantic blocked FI - to a stormy one. With North america slowly setting up to look very much like last last winter.

Which isnt surprising when alot of LRFs are forecasting US to have a almost repeat of last year... add in warm waters off the US coast again and you get:

https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20141106/00/264/h850t850eu.png

Interestingly there is blocking to the east of us on this chart, its just too far east. Leaving a crumple zone of LPs over the uk = Rain and wind.

So that much lauded "pattern change" really is going to take place, then . . . 

. . . as in going from wet to wetter.  

But on a serious note, though, going by the outputs, I think those living at the Levels may want to think about investing in sandbags or hope that the Authorities had learnt their lesson from last year and done some works since then?

Sums things up perfectly. In the last 48 hours the output has trended towards a flatter pattern which is often the case as we head towards the winter. The interesting synoptics tend to appear in October or the first half of November and then again late Feb onwards. The reasons for this have been well discussed and it is why I like to wait until the end of November before making a 'call' on the winter.

With a zonal pattern persisting, coupled with a jet that is sitting between 50-55N over the next week or so, we need to be mindful of increasing storminess as the month progresses. More and more colder air will be feeding into the jet, firing it up and creating more and more cyclogenesis as the polar latitudes continue to cool.

There is the potential for one or two major wind events around the mid month period if the pattern persists IMO. GEM and one or two GEFS perturbations have hinted at such a scenario.

Longer term..who knows. There has been a weak background signal for some form of pressure rise in the Greenland area for a while now. A more meridonal pattern in the final days of the month could well open the gates for some very cold air to spill southwards towards our latitude.

Lots of water to be blown under the bridge before then though.

Despite only average daytime temperatures it is likely that the CET will remain relatively high due to the fact that there is an absence of defined ridges in an often mobile and cloudy SSW'ly set up keeping nights warmer...Great news for those of us who are hoping to achieve the warmest ever year in the CET series. 

Winters over then LOL! Why all the hype then from some very knowledgable peeps if its all blown away in a couple of days?

2 points:

1) I've not idea about the hype as I've not seen it
2) It isn't all blown away in a couple of days. I'm just pointing out that the trend in the last 48 hours has been less favourable for cold and this is often the case as we head towards the winter as the Atlantic fires up 

To be fair not so much hype on here but definitely lots of hype on NW and the net in general and not just from the usual suspects but from well respected amateurs and Pros.

.

The silly season has started early in here this year.

As for zonal, the runs look nothing of the sort!

I'm not sure why the end of November will tell you anything Brian other than it at least gives you a chance of getting the first couple of weeks of a winter forecast right?

Tbh I'd argue it was never favorable in the first place. A weak polar vortex is useless if all the cold air ends up in America. 

GEFS6z control run was an interesting cold outlier today:

^^^^^^^ Agreed , the PV looks weak in comparison to last year ^^^^^^^

O/T

Where is this OPI forecast we are waiting for??

I can't see any particularly flat pattern such as the one to which Brian alluded this morning on the 12z GFS.
Half way through the run and the jet looks a bit buckled up towards Greenland and then down into Biscay:
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=5
By the end of the run it's far enough south to be wandering over Gibraltar:
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=5


As Gandalf said, it's happily not zonal.

Not much sign of Solar Cycle's feared euroslug setting up either imo.
A bit of low pressure over Greece half way through:
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0
And over the Bay of Biscay too at the end:
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

Looks like an average November to me. I can't see any reason to fear that Dec., Jan. and Feb. will be brimful of zonality and/or eurosluggery on the basis of current output.

Okay... so the latest GFS run is interesting enough from a polar perspective for me to pay it some attention.

The Atlantic trough disrupts days 7-10 on the GFS 12z op run, and with the high pressure over the Arctic, it's easy for a very strong ridge to build north from Scandinavia and develop a strong blocking high:

This just leaves the problem of the Atlantic trough needing to be aligned in the right way for cold to reach the UK. The run features little in the way of trough disruption through lower-res, but I suspect that's just the model being too simplistic. 

Eventually, the upstream flow aligns in the right way to start walling the Atlantic off, but at this time the run finishes:

This really does look like a classic slow burner, though still with a highly uncertain final result. The cold could fail to make it this time around. We need a bit of luck for that.

The GFSP also has the trough disruption days 7-10 and then continues it through lower-res:

Close to a battleground blizzard at 300 hours.

Cold drawing closer as the run finishes - this is some of the most promising output from a cold perspective that I've seen since March 2013.

I've just found where the major change occurs and it's within the 5-day range; look at the U.S. and Canada and you can see how an area of deep cold and low pressure has shifted further east on the 12z GFS op compared to the 00z (and 06z, not shown) runs.

This shift is present on the GFSP and GEM runs as well, and to a lesser extent the UKMO runs - but that last model handles the low near the UK very differently for some reason, which produces results not quite as good as what comes from GFS for example:

The 00z (on the left) has much lower heights over eastern Canada, while development of the UK trough is more or less unimpeded. This puts pressure on the Arctic High attempting to develop around Greenland, pretty much annihilating it over the following few days.

The 12z has much higher pressure over eastern Canada, and LP development in the Atlantic is focused close to the SW tip of Greenalnd. While the benefits are far from obvious going by the +144 charts alone, this allows the Arctic High to develop into a stronger feature going forward from the above, which I believe is largely due to the high heights over Canada. The UK trough is also impeded somewhat by a ridge building north from Scandinavia. That ridge is allowed to occur as a result of the stronger Arctic High, and completely changes the game in lower-res compared to previous runs.

The GFSP runs haven't shifted the LP completely out of Canada, yet the lower-res features stronger Arctic blocking, suggesting a bit of 'wiggle room', with the best position of the low heights being off the SW tip of Greenland, but positions a little west of there also sufficing.

Whew - so ends by attempt at being Steve Murr for half an hour! 

Control run interesting in FI tonight:

But it did go off on one at the end:

My Euro slug reverse psychology has worked a treat I see.

Excellent stuff, Stormchaser. Very pleasing to see the 12z for 144hrs delivering a clear break of high pressure across the Arctic from NW Canada to Central Siberia,

Steady up Brian thats nearly 2 weeks away, what were you saying this morning?