ECM ensembles keep getting colder. Control is very cold for the time of year. Very good chance of a cold spell end of November now.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=12

8 or 9c actually according to the raw data from ECMWF.

Amazing, would that be a record?

Very Cold Day and Night Temps. In North and Central, NE USA, Much of Canada, especially West to East Central parts.

Same Goes for far NE Europe, Much of Russia and Siberia - West Central and NOrth and NE in particular Very Cold day and Night temps.

Areas of Central West and East Arctic Very Cold Windespread areas, SW Arctic towards Europe and UK much less Cold away from Arctic Central, Milder SW and South in Norwegian Sea: NE Atlantic Side.

SW and Central to NW Europe including UK less cold indeed quite mild for many in the West NW and SW more especially.

West NW Alaska North NNE Pacific North NW Russian Arctic PV Low, West and NW Grenland PV Low Pressure, and NW Siberia PV Low Pressure all these maintain cold air masses with heavy winter snow as well as very crisp frosty intense cold air streams dominating there, PV low also Central to SE Arctic side pointing across North Russia and NW Siberia PV Vortex.

The Models Pattern and the Real situation as for where it is winter, then we can say the W Europe and UK still have a nice mild 7-8 days more- though Monday and Tuesday quite cloudy grey and cool for UK.

Indeed. If you want that sort of temperature at this time of the year you usually need a mild long fetch southwesterly.

Only if it happens (which it won't - see above)

If you're a coldie then the ECM ensembles are the place to be tonight. the most substantial clustering of cold so far, supported by its op and control, and building on the same yesterday evening. Over to you now GFS...I have a feeling (nothing remotely scientific) that this won't be settled for a while.

1947 saw 18C on 21 and 22 Nov. in Wales according to this site:

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/hightempsyear.php

And 1906 saw the Highlands recording 20C on 23 Nov.

But, as explained, probably irrelevant to those ECM charts. Wouldn't it get too cold overnight under high pressure for a Continental feed to be able to reach anywhere near those kinds of temperatures when you're within a month of the shortest day?

GFS18z op and GFSP at 180 hours:

(see http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx)

I was supplementing John P's answer to the question of whether that ECM run would offer record-breaking temperatures of 18C.

18Z has a 75C+ strat warming over the course of the next 384 hours. Its probably drunk.

Back track from any easterly in late November this morning with all the models having the Atlantic winning out sadly. Surprising when the ECM ensembles looked so bullish regarding an easterly last night. Perhaps I shouldn't be surprised as the Meto 30 dayer was never interested and has become excellent over the last couple of years. Think it will be late December now for any cold at the earliest. 

Whenever I ask IanF on Twitter about MOGREPS /Decider the information he gives suggests they are generally in agreement with the GEFS. The problem on the forums isn't lack of data, if anything it is the opposite. Because there are so many models to look at and because the majority of posters at this time of the year want cold, the 'desired' outcome can usually be reached with at least a little evidence to support it. The evidence more often than not is ropey to say the least, but that's always going to be the case because proper cold spells in the UK are rare beasts.

At no time through the last week or so has a cold outlook been the most likely medium range outlook based on the data we can see. The MOGREPS / Decider / European have on balanced offered a similar picture hence the Met Office updates which some have been criticising.

This doesn't mean it won't turn cold later this month, just that it isn't the most likely outcome. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY NOVEMBER 17TH 2014.

NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY NOVEMBER 18TH 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Slack Low pressure and troughs over Southern England will slip South and fill with a light SE flow developing from tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming generally less unsettled for a time with a lot of cloudy but dry weather, Perhaps becoming more unsettled again later from the West.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows a split flow this side of the Atlantic as the Southern arm is deflected South to the west of the UK while a detached northern arm moves East over the Arcctic Circle above Europe. This complex pattern persists with the later feed taking the Southern arm into a single flow running NE to the West of the UK late in week 2.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a persistent block of High pressure over Eastern Europe preventing Atlantic Low pressure from running it's normal course across the UK with it's normally attendant wind and rain. instead only Western Britain look like seeing occasional rain as fronts buffer the block to the East with a lot of dry and benign conditions for the East. It is not until late in the run where a more concerted push of intense Low pressure to the NW finally nudges the block further South and allows a windier SW flow to drive rain and strong winds across all areas in average temperatures.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run shows less dominance from the European High later this week as Atlantic troughs push further across the UK than is shown from the operational meaning all areas will see some rain by next weekend. Pressure then builds from the South for a time with a quieter drier interlude before the Atlantic pushes back again towards the end of the run with more wind and rain late in the period.

THE GFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles show more bias towards it's parallel run this morning as it builds High pressure North across the UK in a weeks time after a brief wetter spell around the weekend as a trough moves slowly East over the UK. Some frost and fog might occur for a time before the second half of the run sees a rebuild of intense European High pressure with a benign and quiet NE airflow developing for all under a strong ridge over Scotland with any rain restricted to the far South and SE from Low pressure over nearby Europe.

UKMO UKMO today shows the coming weekend becoming more unsettled as Low pressure moves slowly NE across the North carrying troughs of Low pressure over the UK with temperatures close to average.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the current complex Low pressure near Southern Britain giving way to a SE airflow with troughs across Western and SW Britain filling in situ midweek with a new advancement of troughs towards the far West by the weekend.

GEM GEM this morning shows the block of High pressure to the East of Britain maintained over the next 10 days with repetitive attempts of troughs coming up against it from the Atlantic over Western Britain and slowly crossing the UK while weakening. This means the West will see occasional rain early and later in the period possibly extending to other areas at times later in the period as the block slips a little further South and weakens somewhat.

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows similar evolutions to the GFS Ensembles with the stand off continuing between Atlantic Low pressure to the West and High pressure to the East and later South. Generally mild SE winds will carry benign and quiet weather for many in average temperatures through the rest of this week and into the weekend with just the chance of a frostier night or too as the new High from the South moves in just under a week from now.

ECM  ECM this morning also shows the UK weather dominated by the stand off between High pressure over Eastern Europe and Low to the West over the Atlantic. The resultant SE flow will deliver benign and quiet weather through the latter stages of this week with a band of rain crossing slowly East towards the weekend decaying as it does. Then a decidedly sharp dip into unsettled, windy and wet weather is shown by Day 10 as deep Atlantic Low pressure slips ESE towards Britain with strong winds and heavy raine extending to all by then.

THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensemble run this morning's indicate a trend towards Low pressure gradually becoming more dominant again later next week as Low pressure out to the NW pushes South or SW winds across the UK with troughs delivering occasional rain from troughs in relatively mild conditions.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to show High pressure over Europe maintaining benign and stable weather across the UK in average temperatures but with some inroads of Low pressure from the West likely late in the period.

MY THOUGHTS High pressure over Europe remains the dominating feature of the weather shown by the models over the next few weeks. It's positioning and orientation is such that cold weather in this part of the world is unlikely as the mainland of Western Europe remains on the mild side of average given the time of year and the drag of mild SE winds from Southern latitudes exacerbates this fact through this week. The net result for the UK is a lot of cloudy but relatively dry weather very common though a little rain from decaying troughs from the West hitting the High block is likely at times through the next week. There will be a noticeable SE wind at times too which will prevent any clearer night skies from delivering any widespread frost and fog with the net difference between night and day temperatures being narrow. Then as we move into the second half of this morning's output the trend appears to be for the block to the East to slowly loosen it's grip with the chance of a more concerted push of Atlantic domination developing slowly. ECM goes for a deep Low just to the West by Day 10 with wind and rain for all while many other runs offer something similar if in a more diluted form. What no model shows is any guaranteed shift towards anything majorly cold for the UK with temperatures never far from average if not slightly above. In my own opinion I think the theory of a change to a more Atlantic based wind and rain type pattern to end the month is a strong one and what's more I can eventually see the slack Jet through this week strengthening to the West and North later overriding the block over Europe and pushing it South later next week. While this may break us out of the blocked pattern the danger from this is that High pressure could become High from a belt near the Azores to the Meditteranean with a marked broad and mild SW flow developing across the UK to start December. This is my theory based on weak signals at present but the building blocks to this scenario are shown in more than one FI chart I have seen this morning so it is a possibility.

Big flip to 'Milder' in 12 hrs incredible really. And very annoying.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

Cheers Martin Good summary

well according to terry scholeys forecast there is nothing of cold or snow anywhere untill mid december, from reading his mid month forecast, next week is looking mild/very mild.

And if I were to reference members who have experience enough to interpret the output in a way 'unbiased' to any particular weather type and using the data freely available, Martin's analysis, along with Gavin P, would be high on the list.

I would add James (Stormchaser) to the list as well. Three knowledgable and unbiased providers, and we are lucky to have them 

FWIW, my view is that things could still very much go either way with regard to whether the atlantic returns or an easterly flow does set up. If I remember rightly, early last week the models were going for HP to set up shop to the north of the UK, then they changed their minds and for a few days showed the atlantic coming back in and then at the weekend just gone they had another change of heart. My own view is that all output for next weekend and beyond that needs to be treated with a certain amount of caution at the moment, as there seems to be a lot of chopping and changing in the models from one day to the next.

I'll third that.  As well as being unbiased they aren't prone to over analysis which also makes their contributions refreshing. Quite frankly the inferences which some people are deriving from model output / strat signals etc on the forums (I had a look on the other channel and think it's worse there) are ridiculous.    

That chopping and changing is reflected in the 0h GFS ENS.the 12h yesterday had 60:40 Anticyclonic:Atlantic flow at 144h and 240h.This mornings 0h reverses that to 35:65 with HP further south.That chimes more  with the METO extended outllook.At 360 h The atamantic dominates with an 80:20 split with Anticyclonic flow.