I think the Met contingency planners is quite good as well.

I always try and do a little summary on my Blog page when it's updated. Will be looking forward to Novembers update covering the full winter period. 

http://weatherearthnews.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/17th-november-todays-news-no-it-is-not.html

But expecting the media to understand and accurately report on the CPF is like giving a 6 month old border collie a playstation and expecting it to get a record score on Call of Duty first time round ....

Thanks Brian - interesting that the probability of the period falling into "wetter than average" category at 25% is only 5% above the 20% probability assigned to the category in the first place. That's a lot different to the press interpretation!

They took their time, but as predicted, the MetO refutal:

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/11/17/wet-wet-wet-this-winter/

(reiterating what I said this morning)

Latest Meto Outlook...

UK Outlook for Tuesday 2 Dec 2014 to Tuesday 16 Dec 2014:

The most likely scenario is for a continuation of unsettled and windy weather to affect western parts of the UK. Spells of rain are likely further east too but the best of the dry weather is expected here. Temperatures are generally expected to be around or a little above average for the time of year, although this does not preclude the possibility of a few colder spells which are likely during any quieter periods of weather. There is a chance of some overnight and morning mist or fog in places, and some patchy frost too - this may be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.

Issued at: 0400 on Tue 18 Nov 2014

Nothing out the ordinary for the time of year but nice to see the " snow on higher ground " Included now

Thomas Schafernicker just included the concept of forecast ensembles in the 21:55 10-day outlook, and specifically applied to the uncertainties over Saturday lunch time. Excellent stuff. 👍

Yes, I enjoyed that. And he drew attention to the "highly unusual" degree of uncertainty over the weekend forecast.

What's happened at Saturday lunchtime??

Tommy boy doesn't seem that uncertain about the weekend now, " weekend full throttle with rain hitting us"

Looks like the Atlantic bombing through on Friday night.

It didn't look at all uncertain to me

He spent some time explaining that they still need to produce a forecast despite the uncertainty and so they present a blend of the ENS. I didn't see the 22:25 forecast but I imagine the uncertainty over this weekend was omitted from the standard forecast.

Even this morning the GFS ENS show a split in outcomes as near as Saturday, with the majority going for mild.

But it was refreshing to see a different application of the graphics and a BBC forecaster doing his best to explain to Joe Public a bit of the science behind the forecast.

Cheers TB

Understand it now

UK Outlook for Wednesday 3 Dec 2014 to Wednesday 17 Dec 2014:

The most likely scenario is for a continuation of a mobile weak westerly flow bringing unsettled and windy weather mainly to affect western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around or a little above average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning mist or fog in places, and some patchy frost too - this may be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.

Issued at: 0400 on Wed 19 Nov 2014

Copy and Paste for today almost ...The Scottish Ski Resorts will be licking there lips again like last year i feel

Warning: those with weak hearts, weak bladders, a tendency to rage, minor medical conditions, a gun, acces to alcohol, dogs, and young children should avoid the Daily Express.

Serious!!!!!



You have been warned .....

http://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/128/590x/snow-weather-uk-forecast-537436.jpg

Oh dear

A nice succinct article by Brian in the latest Buzz to counter the drivel published in the express by Madden and his cart horse Rao.

 I can't say much more about the total shite these jokers publish without fear of breaking forum rules :)

It's fair to say that mob change stories like the weather 

Oh well not long and the Spring Thread will open 

I'm writing quite a long piece at the moment on realrealscience.blogspot.com about the daily express; I hope to have it done by the weekend.  

Are you not a fan of that Steven fella 

I can't be arsed publishing the full Torygraph piece. Suffice it to say the following provides an indication.

"Temperatures will drop to 19F (-4C) in some areas of the country with fog blanketing large areas at the beginning of the week."

Not much change from the updates last week.

UK Outlook for Monday 8 Dec 2014 to Monday 22 Dec 2014:

There is no strong signal in weather pattern during this period. However, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/u10khsx41#?tab=regionalForecast