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Brian Gaze
24 November 2014 13:04:43


Not much change from the updates last week.


UK Outlook for Monday 8 Dec 2014 to Monday 22 Dec 2014:


There is no strong signal in weather pattern during this period. However, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/u10khsx41#?tab=regionalForecast


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


I don't think ECM32 runs on Sunday - I could be wrong - so the extended part of the forecast isn't likely to change much. 


GloSea should be updated very soon which will be interesting.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
tallyho_83
24 November 2014 13:31:28


 


I don't think ECM32 runs on Sunday - I could be wrong - so the extended part of the forecast isn't likely to change much. 


GloSea should be updated very soon which will be interesting.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Yes - when will the Met office update change!?? All they do is just change the dates!?


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gavin P
24 November 2014 14:06:10

GLOSEA was updated early in the month, but for some reason the update is been removed. Not sure what will happen, but hoping it will return in tome for my seasonal model round-up video on Sunday.


The update I saw was brutal for anybody wanting it cold...


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Saint Snow
24 November 2014 16:37:25

Heard on some radio station over the weekend (I forget which one):


Male presenter: And I hear it's going to turn cold next week...


Young Female co-presenter: Yeah, minus seven!!!


Male presenter: Freezing! But hey, we might get a white Christmas!!!


Young Female Presenter: I think minus seven's too cold for snow


Male Presenter: I think you're right. Better get my woolly hat and gloves ready anyway, though


 


A 10-second interplay that only a weathergeek could get angry about



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
nsrobins
24 November 2014 16:41:42


Heard on some radio station over the weekend (I forget which one):


Male presenter: And I hear it's going to turn cold next week...


Young Female co-presenter: Yeah, minus seven!!!


Male presenter: Freezing! But hey, we might get a white Christmas!!!


Young Female Presenter: I think minus seven's too cold for snow


Male Presenter: I think you're right. Better get my woolly hat and gloves ready anyway, though


 


A 10-second interplay that only a weathergeek could get angry about


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


They didn't mention mini-tornados as well did they?


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
kmoorman
24 November 2014 16:49:59


Heard on some radio station over the weekend (I forget which one):


Male presenter: And I hear it's going to turn cold next week...


Young Female co-presenter: Yeah, minus seven!!!


Male presenter: Freezing! But hey, we might get a white Christmas!!!


Young Female Presenter: I think minus seven's too cold for snow


Male Presenter: I think you're right. Better get my woolly hat and gloves ready anyway, though


 


A 10-second interplay that only a weathergeek could get angry about


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


That is oh so many shades of wrong.


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
nsrobins
24 November 2014 17:29:37


 


That is oh so many shades of wrong.


Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


Fifty shades at least Kieron, I reckon 


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gooner
24 November 2014 20:21:40

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Nov 2014 to Monday 8 Dec 2014:


Outbreaks of rain, heavy at times with strong winds in northwest Britain, are likely to move southeastwards across the UK this weekend. Clearer conditions should follow, although a few showers are possible in the north and west. Ahead of this rain it should be largely dry but rather cloudy. Temperatures will be near or slightly above average and overnight fog patches are possible. Thereafter northwestern parts are likely to be often unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain. There is also a risk that southern Britain could be affected by some unsettled weather but it should be largely fine in-between with a risk of overnight frost and fog. Temperatures may become below average in the south and east later. The week after next conditions may turn more generally unsettled.


 


Indications of something from the East...................................maybe??


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


kmoorman
24 November 2014 20:51:14


 


Fifty shades at least Kieron, I reckon 


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


Possibly.  


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
tallyho_83
25 November 2014 02:14:30


UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Nov 2014 to Monday 8 Dec 2014:


Outbreaks of rain, heavy at times with strong winds in northwest Britain, are likely to move southeastwards across the UK this weekend. Clearer conditions should follow, although a few showers are possible in the north and west. Ahead of this rain it should be largely dry but rather cloudy. Temperatures will be near or slightly above average and overnight fog patches are possible. Thereafter northwestern parts are likely to be often unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain. There is also a risk that southern Britain could be affected by some unsettled weather but it should be largely fine in-between with a risk of overnight frost and fog. Temperatures may become below average in the south and east later. The week after next conditions may turn more generally unsettled.


 


Indications of something from the East...................................maybe??


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Weather online has picked up on this from 2nd Dec:


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20141124


 


Still Vague.


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


nsrobins
25 November 2014 10:11:10


 


 


Weather online has picked up on this from 2nd Dec:


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20141124


 


Still Vague.


 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


They're just forecasting and Simon simply responds to output.
This is there forecast for this week posted 15th Nov:
*22/11/14 - 28/11/14*
During this week the southwest flow becomes established with bands of cloud and rain spreading eastwards, the heaviest of them in the west. Windy at times. Temperatures are likely to be around normal in the south, but staying cool to the north.


Quite rightly they were forecasting a mobile SW flow with bands of rain crossing - as shown by NWP at the time. What we have is a block persisting and a slack drift.
So basically you take your pick, but IMO almost anyone on this forum has as much chance of forecasting two weeks ahead as anyone else.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
tallyho_83
26 November 2014 11:36:29


UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Nov 2014 to Monday 8 Dec 2014:


Outbreaks of rain, heavy at times with strong winds in northwest Britain, are likely to move southeastwards across the UK this weekend. Clearer conditions should follow, although a few showers are possible in the north and west. Ahead of this rain it should be largely dry but rather cloudy. Temperatures will be near or slightly above average and overnight fog patches are possible. Thereafter northwestern parts are likely to be often unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain. There is also a risk that southern Britain could be affected by some unsettled weather but it should be largely fine in-between with a risk of overnight frost and fog. Temperatures may become below average in the south and east later. The week after next conditions may turn more generally unsettled.


 


Indications of something from the East...................................maybe??


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Not anymore now!!


 


Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days


UK Outlook for Sunday 30 Nov 2014 to Tuesday 9 Dec 2014:


Rain across northwestern parts on Sunday gradually moving southeastwards through Monday, weakening as it does so, with clearer and colder conditions following. Generally cloudy conditions ahead of this rain with a few spots of rain or drizzle, and locally murky conditions. Thereafter mainly dry and settled weather is most likely, with some sunny spells, but also an increasing risk of fog and frost patches as winds ease through the week. However, northwestern parts are likely to be unsettled and windy at times with showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures will be around normal, or rather cold, especially where fog lingers. The week after next, the more unsettled conditions in the northwest, are increasingly likely to spread to other parts of the UK and temperatures perhaps becoming less cold.


UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Dec 2014 to Wednesday 24 Dec 2014:


There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period. However, the most likely scenario is a trend towards more unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


GIBBY
26 November 2014 12:32:35

I'm not a bit surprised for this correction given the output freely available to us and obvious their own points to something similar. Points to a UK based frosty and foggy high being pulled South later by an overriding Jet flow towards the South and SW allowing mild Atlantic Westerlies to gradually track down across the UK in the period that follows.


Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset



Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
Brian Gaze
26 November 2014 12:37:23


I'm not a bit surprised for this correction given the output freely available to us and obvious their own points to something similar. Points to a UK based frosty and foggy high being pulled South later by an overriding Jet flow towards the South and SW allowing mild Atlantic Westerlies to gradually track down across the UK in the period that follows.


Originally Posted by: GIBBY 


I think there's uncertainty about the extent of frost and fog next week but we'll see.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
26 November 2014 12:39:30


I'm not a bit surprised for this correction given the output freely available to us and obvious their own points to something similar. Points to a UK based frosty and foggy high being pulled South later by an overriding Jet flow towards the South and SW allowing mild Atlantic Westerlies to gradually track down across the UK in the period that follows.


Originally Posted by: GIBBY 


 




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
26 November 2014 19:04:09

Ive done a bit more work on my blog post about this but its still not finished, its like trying to fight off a machine gunner with bollocks for ammunition; or playing whack a mole; just when you write a scathing piece on the express another front page headline pops up. I might just do a YT video on this all; its really annoying me to the extent that its ruining winter MO for me; how can I hope for '63 when the turd throwing baboons will just claim victory if it comes up. 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Sevendust
26 November 2014 19:19:25


Ive done a bit more work on my blog post about this but its still not finished, its like trying to fight off a machine gunner with bollocks for ammunition; or playing whack a mole; just when you write a scathing piece on the express another front page headline pops up. I might just do a YT video on this all; its really annoying me to the extent that its ruining winter MO for me; how can I hope for '63 when the turd throwing baboons will just claim victory if it comes up. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Ally Pally Snowman
26 November 2014 20:50:53


 


 


Not anymore now!!


 


Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days


UK Outlook for Sunday 30 Nov 2014 to Tuesday 9 Dec 2014:


Rain across northwestern parts on Sunday gradually moving southeastwards through Monday, weakening as it does so, with clearer and colder conditions following. Generally cloudy conditions ahead of this rain with a few spots of rain or drizzle, and locally murky conditions. Thereafter mainly dry and settled weather is most likely, with some sunny spells, but also an increasing risk of fog and frost patches as winds ease through the week. However, northwestern parts are likely to be unsettled and windy at times with showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures will be around normal, or rather cold, especially where fog lingers. The week after next, the more unsettled conditions in the northwest, are increasingly likely to spread to other parts of the UK and temperatures perhaps becoming less cold.


UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Dec 2014 to Wednesday 24 Dec 2014:


There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period. However, the most likely scenario is a trend towards more unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Until these forecasts start mentioning cold and snow we have pretty much no chance. These 2-4 week forecasts have Improved no end over the last few years.  If they are not seeing it, it probably isn't going to happen. 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
tallyho_83
26 November 2014 20:57:52


 


Until these forecasts start mentioning cold and snow we have pretty much no chance. These 2-4 week forecasts have Improved no end over the last few years.  If they are not seeing it, it probably isn't going to happen. 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


So no cold spell or easterly this December then by the looks of things!!!!!


 


Oh well - least it won't be as wet as last December.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Quantum
26 November 2014 21:06:18


 


So no cold spell or easterly this December then by the looks of things!!!!!


 


Oh well - least it won't be as wet as last December.


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


I think thats a little pre-emptive; I very much doubt we will see anything in the first half, but the 2nd half is still up for grabs. The patterns can change very quickly aswell, I'm seeing nothing at all at the moment (despite slightly promising signs earlier this week) but they may come back. 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Ally Pally Snowman
26 November 2014 21:33:42


 


So no cold spell or easterly this December then by the looks of things!!!!!


 


Oh well - least it won't be as wet as last December.


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


I think it's extremely unlikely for the UK to get a proper cold and snowy spell before Christmas now. Unless the Meto have it very wrong which I doubt.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
tallyho_83
26 November 2014 21:38:34
Thought you may have found this interesting:

http://news.sky.com/story/1380700/passengers-push-broken-jet-on-freezing-runway 

Winter has started early for Russia as well as America!!

Seems like Western Europe is the only country that is missing out on the fun.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
26 November 2014 22:38:31
JUST saw the BBC 1 weather after news - why is this easterly on Friday so warm??? is it because of the warm continent?

Usually easterly winds in Nov Dec or Jan are from a cold direction?? Oh well wait from a westerly....lest that will be cooler LOL.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Russwirral
26 November 2014 23:10:39

JUST saw the BBC 1 weather after news - why is this easterly on Friday so warm??? is it because of the warm continent?

Usually easterly winds in Nov Dec or Jan are from a cold direction?? Oh well wait from a westerly....lest that will be cooler LOL.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


 Follow the isobars back to Africa - is your reason.


 


Saying that - expect some fog and frost this week into next


GIBBY
27 November 2014 12:11:51

The updated 6-15 day forecast just issued indicates a High pressure dominated spell with frost and fog patches eroded at times by troughs coming down from the NW, no doubt with cloudy and grey skies and nondescript temperatures as result.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcn7b36v9#?tab=regionalForecast


Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset



Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen

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