They belong in the Fantasy Forum. 

Totally off topic

Have to say how well policed this site is and with a sensible approach, I have ventured over to the other side for a few weeks and you could have a post deleted for missing a full stop  very little tolerance given .

Credit to the TWO site.

Good job done by the hierarchy on here .

<delete>

Cheers 

Charts dire yet again; I'm in need of some optimism so a quick look at the stratosphere, with all the caveats that entails.

This is 150hr, its something the models have been playing with for a while. Extreme levels of warming at the top of the stratosphere indicated by the image on the left, however its far less impressive in the lower strat with no significant warming at all below 10mb. Even the impressive warming at the high levels does not manage to destroy the westerly circulation, so this is a polar vortex displacement; not a major sudden stratospheric warming. I'm dubious we will ever receive the goods from this at all, not that its possible to directly attribute to strat warming anyway.

People keep saying the NH profile is completely different; it looks nigh on identical to me, perhaps not for the early Dec pattern, but certainly the January pattern. The similarity is uncanny. I don't understand how people can say it is so different.

This is from the 1st January last year, but it might aswell be from any current MO

They are hardly dire Q, yes if you want a Blizzard in 10 days I would probably agree , but with the block firmly sat to the East we are in a much better position than last year, which was dire.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2521.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn25217.gif

This could go anywhere from here

I agree that the patterns this year and last late November hardly match, but the january pattern matches almost perfectly and January was a disaster. 

Slightly OT but in general the posting of charts in this thread is working well. However, can I suggest where applicable they are resized to reduce the need for unnecessary scrolling and to give the best user experience across all screen sizes.

The images Stormchaser posts (from TWO and other sources) provide a good template as they're usually spot on. This has nothing to do with bandwidth or server issues, it's purely to make the thread as readable as possible. 

I agree, the charts this morning look better, though not brilliant at the moment.  Weve had worse charts.  From the current charts  we can see

• Encouraging signs of lower pressure over the med


• Warmer temps creeping up towards the eastern med


• Stubborn High pressure to the north east 


• Signs that we may begin to get cooler north westerlies with sub Dam528 air within.  Which - if it engages with the eastern HP would be interesting.


• Signs that pressure systems want to slide towards the med


• Signs that Pressure systems also want to run towards France rather than north eastward over the UK towards Shetland leaving us on the northern colder edge


• Signs of colder temps creeping into Eastern europe (loading the cold)

Its only November - so alot of the above means cooler and average temps.  Europe isnt in the freezer yet - thoough as i said on my last point, thats going to change with time.

Will have to get through a wet patch first though

i realise this is all being massively optimistic.

What does June look like Q ???

Here we have two models showing the same general pattern but both handling the West v East battle very differently. GFS being its typical bullish self with plenty of Atlantic energy forcing over the top of the HP. UKMO showing HP fighting back from 120h to 144h with LP digging a long way South.

12z GFS at 144h

12z UKMO at 144h

A tough setup to model clearly. I can think of professions easier than weather forecasting!

The Beast from the East wins on the 12z Gem!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014112212/gemnh-0-210.png?12

The best chart I can recall  within about 9 days since March 2013.  A change would be pleasant, even if I'm enjoying the mildness.

At least some minor league eye candy is being offered this year as opposed to the jet-fest we endured last winter.

Yes, its some way off being "top-shelf" material, but its a start

What I do like about this next FI chart is the cold pooling in European Russia and the WAA into Svalbard and the high Arctic:

The best-possible case scenario we could be looking at here is for a cold outbreak from the east to kick in by around December 7th, Id rate that option at around 1/50 chance at the moment.

This is the GEM we are talking about, it loves to do this sort of thing; if its still there tommorow I'll be more interested. Of course, we may only have to wait an hour....

-30C uppers; that really can't be right, can it?

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014112212/UN144-21.GIF?22-18

The UKMO 144 chart isn't too bad

We can't take much faith in anything much at the moment... compared to their respective 00z runs, the GFS op has toned donw the major Atlantic trough, while the GFSP op has dropped the feature in favour of a more complicated setup involving multiple lows which don't phase with one another.

In both cases, the blocking high fairs better, though in the case of GFS it doesn't stay to our east - instead it travels to the high Arctic, NE of Siberia, and sits there teasing a splitting of the polar vortex but with little progress actually made before the run ends.

It's the GFSP which has really upgraded the lifetime of blocking high pressure over Scandinavia, as is evident by it's continued presence at the end of the run:

The polar vortex also seems to gradually disintegrate days 10-16... this theme is actually consistent with the 00z runs, despite how much poorer they looked (at face value) for cold prospects across the Atlantic and NW Europe.

All I can really conclude from today's output is that no real conclusions can be drawn regarding the outlook beyond the middle of next week 

Okay, maybe I'm being a bit silly there - it's fair to say that the Atlantic is likely to keep having a say in our weather until at least next weekend, with spells of rain which could be prolonged if the fronts become slow moving in the face of the blocking high.

These days I right-click on the chart and select 'copy image', then use ctrl + v to paste it straight in.

I then resize to improve the layout from the default size 

For charts like the following two, I have the width at 500:

As for what's going on in those charts... well it looks like the roller-coaster is in full swing even at 6 days range! ECM and UKMO are suddenly sending a lot more energy south, which gives a helping hand to the block.

It's similar behaviour that leads to the insane GEM 12z op run posted earlier on... though that was coupled with about as much amplification as possible.

ECM's slower progression of the low pressure coming off the U.S. does threaten to cause issues though - it could align the jet SW-NE, cutting off the Iberian trough in a similar way to the 00z, though the Azores High might struggle to get so far NE this time around.

This will end up quite different from GEM.

The handling of the low pressure moving off the U.S. days 5-7 did indeed result in the jet powering NW with a cut-off low SW of Iberia as feared.

ECM's version of events is in disagreement with the 12z op runs of GFS, GFSP, UKMO and JMA. This puts it in the 'low probability' drawer, but I can never discard an ECM completely when key developments are in the 5-6 day range as is the case with that U.S. trough.

Despite persisting with steering the jet NE days 7-10, the polar vortex becomes disorganised again late in the run, and a split seems to be trying to occur at the end, which is quite a contrast to what the 00z showed. Not that it means much in the face of such disagreement 5 days prior!

I'm just glad there are plenty of interesting things to keep track of during the coming weeks, which is leagues better than last year offered up