I'm not sure I am seeing too much to be excited about. Maybe a few wintry showers here and potentially more significant hill snow for some NWern parts. The stormy potential, although not shown across all models, is certainly worth watching.

I really hope this low doesn't undergo bombogenesis like the GFS and NAVGEM are hinting, all the precipitation will be concentrated in the warm sector if that happens and the gale or severe gale force winds are an unfortunate bonus. There would still be snow potential, but it would be entirely reduced to the northern edge. 

ok Q just to keep you happy. 

At 20cm max that really isn't to be sniffed at, and like I say the GFS is hardly the optimum solution. If the LP was further south then it could more widely affect the far north of England and Scotland. 

See Mr H, he's not as scary as he used to be . . . .

The GFSP solution needs monitoring as it's been a while since a decent lowland gale affected a wide area

Thats nasty on the control

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=162&mode=0&carte=1

I hope the express dont read this forum  goodnight scotland

Christopher Burt has an article on this presently on Weather Underground.

Near Record Drop in Temperature in Plains November 29-30

A cold front passed through Montana and Wyoming on Saturday November 29th and then pushed south and east over the Great Plains dropping temperatures as much as 70° in a matter of hours.

Nebraska saw the most pronounced temperature drops with York falling from an all-time late-season record high of 81°F at 1:35 p.m. on November 29th to 10° by 7:30 a.m. November 30th

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=317#commenttop

Interesting developments for Monday on this evenings run.  GFSPs an example:

On one hand this has the potential to develop into quite a storm - however there has been a theme this month for the GFS and GFSP to big up a storm initially - then back off the energy on each subsequent run.  So perhaps this will amount to nothing.  But certainly something to watch. 

On the other hand on the last few runs the LP has been progressively further south - which if it keeps along that theme will deliver something a bit more wintry - with snowfall to the northern regions on its northern edge.  What makes me curious about the latter option - is there seems to be a theme in latter FI on the last couple of runs for the jet to go a bit south.. or at least UK to be north of a slack LP with lots of Sub Dam 528 air covering the UK.  I only mention that because in the past we have had the GFS pick things up in FI that have been combined with mid term options   a blend of a few scenarios. 

Will be interesting to see what progress we make on the 00z to see if this will continue a momentum for a surprise cold event

The GFS 18z op digs the trough down aross the UK more than the 12z op did. The rest of the run is then like a very slow version of the ECM 12z op run, very gradually moving the Scandinavian trough away and allowing a ridge to nose in by the end of the run.

This is significant purely as a trend, as it the fact that the polar vortex is weaker and more disorganised than I recall seeing on any of the runs in November.

As for the parallel version, it has been remarkably consistent with the previous run out to day 10:

That's very close to the ECM 12z op run in terms of digging the trough south, but the jet on the GFSP run is still flatter on the previous way, which means the low heights push further east. It's the reason why the NW'rly is a little colder than ECM's version. 

Trough disruption does than begin to occur, but by that time the low in the western North Atlantic has suddenly decided to stop being aligned N-S and power NE, flattening the pattern. The day 16 result is a new area of very low heights to our NE. There's also one centered over the dateline in the Pacific. In other words, the polar vortex is split in two, a theme consistent with the previous GFSP op run and also the GFS 18z op run.

This is consistent with the combined effect of a recurving Pacific tropical cyclone encouraging a deep Pacific trough and U.S./Canada ridge and an MJO progression to phase 7-8 which then promotes height rises toward Greenland.

With this in mind, the ECM run represents a variation where the low heights to our NE are actually all the way over in Siberia, with a ridge between it and the UK. You're then left waiting for the low heights over Canada to get kicked out into the Atlantic, hoping for the elusive undercut to deliver the goods.

All this analysis could be rendered seemingly irrelevant if the trend ceases or reverses tomorrow, but I don't care really because for some reason I really enjoy writing countless words as I explore the output like this. It's a luxury I probably won't be able to indulge in for too much longer, as the lull following my postgraduate study at the University of Reading draws to a close and the world of work beckons.

Nothing concrete just yet, but surely only a matter of time. I wish I could place such certainty in a significant cold spell hitting the UK this month 

I tend to find the best weather arrives when im busiest.  Typically 3 days before i go away, or just before a delivery of a project.  As it stands at the moment Im waiting to start a new job in work and the conditions couldnt be more mundane.  

Good luck with the study

Funnily enough - the GEFS also show an increase in the snow rows from the 14th onwards in line with my thoughts above:

A growing trend to introduce a fairly potent polar NW'ly now emerging in the charts around the 10-12th December from some of the GEFS members again this morning. Elevated areas of the north and west most favoured for convective snow events. 

ECM similar but the tilt is more westerly meaning uppers are warmer with snow more likely reserved for the Scottish highlands in such a set up.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY DECEMBER 2ND 2014.

NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 3RD 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A cold front will edge very slowly SE across the SE of Britain followed by a ridge of High pressure across Central Britain later.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly dry and benign conditions will slowly give way to more unsettled and changeable weather with rain or perhaps wintry showers at times.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows a brief dip South in the flow across NW Europe before returning North quite quickly and then blowing across the UK while slowly sinking to the South of the UK later in the run.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a gradual change to more unsettled and very changeable conditions taking over with spells of windy and rainy weather alternating with colder and clearer air with showers, some wintry in places as Low pressure digs further South down across the UK displacing the High to the South and SW further away for a time. Late in the run the High returns close to the South over France and a mild Westerly flow re-establishes across the UK with wind and rain most likely to continue towards the North and West.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run shows a similar synoptic setup as the operational though individual times and positioning of the driving pressure systems affect the weather differently over the UK day to day but the overall mess age is the same in that High pressure to the South and Low to the North remain dominant throughout.

THE GFS CONTROL.  The GFS control run also shows a more volatile and potentially stormy period a week from now as deep and vigorous Low pressure is allowed to make much larger inroads across the UK with gales and heavy rain followed by chilly aor with wintry showers at times. The trend later is for pressure systems to be less pronounced and with High pressure never far to the South the rain looks like it could become more biased towards the North and West later in a milder westerly flow

THE GEFS ENSEMBLES.  The GEFS Ensembles maintain a period of westerly winds over the next two weeks circulating around Low pressure to the North and High to the South. As the Jet Stream sinks further South later the winds will become chillier at times especially in the North with wintry showers at times between the passing rain bands.

UKMO UKMO today shows a rather cold Northerly flow at the start of the weekend with outbreaks of rain being replaced by wintry showers for a time with a rinse and repeat pattern of rain followed by colder and showery conditions looking likely again early next week.

THE FAX CHARTS  The Fax Charts show a slow movong trough close to SE England at the weekend before a cold front moving down from the NW bring cold and bright weather with some coastal and hill showers falling as snow in places. Then at the end of the period a warm front brings milder Westerly winds back to Scotland by Monday.

GEM  GEM shows a pattern which deteriorates conditions across the UK from the North later this weekend as Low pressure makes it's way South deeper into the UK with spells of rain and gales for all interspersed by brighter and colder but still windy conditions with squally showers, wintry on hills especially in the North. This pattern then persists out to the end of the run.

NAVGEM NAVGEM too winds up to a more unsettled spell next week powered by a developing deep depression close to Northern Scotland at the end of the run with Westerly gales and rather cold conditions following a band of rain with frequent squally and wintry showers especially across the North and West.

ECM  ECM this morning shows a pattern also is similar to the rest of the output with strong support for a more coherent attack from Low pressure to the North and NW next week with the quiet and rather chilly benign conditions between now and then giving way to wet and windy conditions followed by cold and showery conditions in a WNW flow. The end of the run signifies the unsettled and changeable period is expected to continue with Westerly winds carrying bands of milder rainy weather followed by colder and showery spells.

ECM ENSEMBLES  This morning's Ensemble data illustrate a typical Winter pattern for the UK with Low pressure to the North of the UK and High pressure near the Azores giving rise to a strong Westerly flow across the UK with rain at times and average temperatures overall.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme has now become strong in support for the quiet and benign spell of late giving way to much more unsettled and windy spells of weather with rain bands and gales alternating with colder and still windy weather with showers, wintry on hills.

 MY THOUGHTS   The models have firmed up on the trend towards much more changeable weather with strong winds developing for all areas as we move through next week. The High pressure to the SW looks like losing a lot of it's influence as deep Low pressure areas tilt towards a slightly South of East track to the North of Scotland. This powers up strong Westerly winds with spells of rain followed by successive periods of colder and showery conditions with some snow likely on high ground mostly in the North at times before the next surge of Low pressure brings the next band of rain and milder air through. This type of structure and sequence is supported by all output with the longer term trend beyond the end of the 1st week maintaining basically Westerly winds and rain at times for all with no clear indication of any major shift towards anything other than a continuation of the zonal train at the end of week 2 this morning. With support for this theory from both the GFS and ECM Ensemble data this morning one has to believe that this evolution maintains a strong chance of verifying from todays output.

I'm expecting to see upgrades with the potential NW incursion over the weekend,  I wouldn't at all be surprised (depending on any precipitation  falling) to see a wintry mix to quite low levels from North Wales Northwards. 

GFSP 6z showing some incredible gust speeds!

Looks pretty standard fare for the time of year for the vast majority of mainland UK. Lost count of the number of systems delivering winds like that last winter. 

Remarkable consistency on GFS from run to run. Even the 06z holds firm with a transient north westerly storm of sorts for the north early next week before flattening out for the mild & westerly train til the end of the run.

Any pattern change (if there is one) won't be picked up on for a while yet, leaving a pretty predictable & boring month for coldies.

I agree thats not a normal N/A system that does look nasty for northern parts on the control

 look at the pressure gradient

Yes looks very uneventful in terms of Wintry weather or even low pressure systems!!!!!

Im not sure what GFS charts you are refering to, but on the last couple of runs have shown consistent variations of a deep Low pressure system carrying in alot of cold air (cold enough for frosts and snow for the north)

I wouldnt rule out transient snow in fronts for the southern counties if the fronts arrive after dark.

just looking at Brians post abut Wind speaks in excess of 80mph - though not out of the ordinary is far from being uneventful.

I think there is a stirring in the Metoffice too about this scenario.  I saw the weather view last night with John hammond, he finished off by some small ramping talk about a change to more wintry weather to watch out for next week... which is quite odd for the beeb to ramp up over a week in advance.