The GEFS have suddenly shifted markedly away from the MJO getting into phase 8, so it's not surprising that all the -ve NAO trends of the 00z runs have been removed on the 12z GFS and GFSP runs.
We just see an Atlantic train from a more westerly direction, with near to above average temperatures occurring more often and cooler interludes lasting just a day or so.
Perhaps, then, the end of the brief run searching for those -ve NAO signals. The MJO/-ve NAO connection has really fueled my interest over the past week as I was hoping to see a live example of how it can drive a major change in our fortunes.
If that really has crashed and burned, then I have little of much interest to keep track of apart from the strat. warming event(s) kicking off in 9 days time. At least that aspect has been retained in the GFS output and without being delayed or any loss of intensity:
As the first -32*C isotherm appears at the 10hPa level, the vortex is it's usual well-rounded self.
By day 16, the warming has raised temperatures as high as -20*C and is starting to heavily distort the vortex.
The impacts of that will most likely take until close to or a little way into 2015 to impact the troposphere.
With that event so far away, and little to drive a -ve NAO beforehand, the only real possibility of a change in the next fortnight lies with the Siberian High building into Scandinavia, which depends on GFS and GFSP being wide of the mark in terms of the Atlantic trough behaviour. Anyone ready to cast their bets? 
Otherwise, it's an Atlantic regime all the way, as summarised at the top of this post.
I'm not one to hibernate, but unless the Siberian High suddenly starts barging its way west on the model output (not trusting any Greenland Highs for the time being), I'm certainly looking at a bit of a snooze 
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser