To be fair, they were flip flopping all over the shop last week and the week before when the mention of cold signal in early Jan first arrived/ disappeared/re-appeared/ vanished.

They have certainly been more accurate than any other equivalent forecast, though to be fair thats not saying much

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Totally agree - the outlook was for a cold spell beginning of Jan and temps below average and then they say average to below average with snow over higher ground and now "temperatures around average or a little above average!" - Also the met office talk about colder spells" - well here in the SW we haven't had any colder spell's yet. I think they mean cooler spells. - I think the way we are going we could be seeing a repeat of winter 2013/14 but without the rain/floods.

Just thought I'd mention we have had one week of temperatures in double figures here in Exeter. 10c+14c. Very pleasant indeed as well as unseasonable. Gavin? Did you not mention in your video that it will turn colder as winter progresses?? - I hope you're right. Looks like the coldest day for the next week will be on Christmas day here in the SW and this isn't even cold 8C is very seasonal.

 

Here is the Met Office update below - if you can bare to read it:

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Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Sunday 28 Dec 2014 to Tuesday 6 Jan 2015:

Cloudy with some outbreaks of rain in the southeast on Sunday, but this should clear by the end of the day. Otherwise, largely dry and bright with lengthy spells of sunshine, and this weather continuing into Monday as well. Temperatures generally below average, and feeling especially cold in the southeast at first with brisk northeasterly winds. For much of the rest of next week, the fine conditions persist, though the chance of some rain at times in the far northwest. Fog and frost are likely, with temperatures remaining below average away from the far northwest. Towards the end of the period, a gradual return to more unsettled conditions is likely, though still some drier spells in the south at times with overnight frost and fog. Temperatures recovering to nearer normal.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Jan 2015 to Wednesday 21 Jan 2015:

The most likely scenario for this part of January is for a continuation of changeable, and at times, windy weather coming from the Atlantic with the wettest weather probably across western parts of the UK, and southern and eastern parts most likely to see the best of any dry weather. In between the wetter periods there should be some drier, brighter, and colder spells. Temperatures are most likely to be around, or a little above average for the time of year with overnight frost and fog at times, and some snow possible, particularly over the high ground in the north.

Updated at: 1523 on Tue 23 Dec 2014

 

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Was it? If you could retrieve that to jog my memory I'd be grateful. I remember a description of likely conditions and the possibility of slightly below average temperatures, but not a 'cold spell'.

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The end of December is likely to stay changeable and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest. This will bring cloudy periods with spells of rain, interspersed with clearer and transient cold interludes. These could include wintry showers, mainly in the north. The more unsettled conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with the best of the sunshine in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to vary day by day, but tending to average out to be around, or just below normal. This is the most likely scenario throughout the period until mid January, however there is also the potential for a slightly more settled, and colder spell to develop from early January.

 

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Would be interesting to know why they've ramped up temperatures again today. 

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It makes it harder to take in when they first make a more convinced statement, to a vague one, followed by 'no clear signal' messages followed by opposite forecasts from update to update.
Without sounding rude, at least most amateurs stick to their guns and put their balls on the line.

J H on the Beeb didn't mention much of the white stuff at 21:55

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STOP PRESS!

Daily Express reporters dashing to report the latest GFS run

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Latest Monthly outlook from Weather Online: - Not they are being very conservative and not really mentioning "cold."

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20141222

 

Month ahead - December 22, 2014     Valid from 27/12 to 23/01 2015 Cool at times

Issued: Monday 22nd December 2014 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling Unsettled and becoming cooler, then cool to cold in January Staying unsettled and rather cool for the rest of December, although there are hints of a few milder days in the run up to Christmas. We are starting to build a picture of colder weather to end the year and to start 2015. *27/12/14 - 2/1/15* A mixed period of weather. There will be strong winds and periods of rain through the weekend and into the early part of the week. Through New Year there may be some cooler conditions developing, especially in the north. To the south it will be damp at times with rainfall trying to edge northwards. *3/1/15 - 9/1/15* High pressure building to the south of the country through the week, with low pressure to the north. Winds to the west or northwest bringing mixed weather, but generally cooler conditions. Most rain to north and west, but drier to the south and east. Precipitation may turn wintry in the north. We also need to watch for the threat of cooler conditions developing should high pressure build further north. *10/1/15 - 16/1/15* Little change through this week. Remaining cool. Further periods of rain, especially in the north. Windy at ties with gales. The precipitation again falling as sleet and snow at times over high ground in the north. *17/1/15 - 23/1/15 Hints of a cold week ahead. There is a risk of cool conditions and perhaps even cold. There could be rain, sleet and snow at times, most in the north. Southern areas generally being more frosty. Simon Keeling

 

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A few Weather warnings have been issued by the Met

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1419552000®ionName=nw 

running all the way out til Saturday for snow for Northern England.

Lets see if that still looks that way tomorrow lunchtime, I suspect a few other tweaks to the area posed for snow.

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The METO 5-16 day update is relatively consistent wiht the high pressure morning model output - nothing significant mentioned as you would expect given output at the moment. The 16 day onwards remains unchanged.

Martin

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Ferguson:

 

W COUNTRY Potential for some snow (likely small amounts, to 2cm) has been extended S for tomorrow to lie essentially #Bristol-M4 northwards

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The SE England forecast makes for a chilly and decidedly festive feel for Kent and East Sussex dwellers. 

Regional forecast for London & South East England

Feeling cold. Becoming cloudy, rain later.

Today:

A frosty start but soon clouding over with rain spreading eastwards this afternoon, becoming persistent and heavy at times later, perhaps turning to snow over higher parts of Oxfordshire later. Feeling cold as southeasterly winds strengthen. Maximum Temperature 7C.

Tonight:

Rain for a time, some heavy, with an increasingly of snow on hills of the north and east, clearing to wintry showers. Windy at times, perhaps gales across Kent later. Minimum Temperature 0C.

Saturday:

Sunny intervals and showers, mainly of rain or sleet, but turning to snow at times. Cold northeasterly winds with early gales possible across Kent. Maximum Temperature 3C.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Wintry showers across Kent and East Sussex on Sunday and Monday but generally dry. Cold with widespread overnight frosts but also sunshine, although freezing fog patches may linger in places.

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Hopefully I will get a covering

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MetO warnings have been updated - the yellow warning of snow now extends as far south as Kent, although as the accompanying text makes clear it's still very uncertain which areas will see snow.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&regionName=se&fcTime=1419552000

 

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Remaining dry and cold according to Weather Online:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20141227 

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Week ahead - December 27, 2014

Dry, cold

Frosts & freezing fog

Issued: 0850 Saturday 27 December 2014
Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski

Mainly settled

High pressure builds in and becomes the main feature of the weather during much of this upcoming week. Much of the country will be dry with good sunny spells. Frosts are likely to be widespread with a risk of dense patches of freezing fog developing as the winds lessen around mid week. Later rain may reach the north and the west.

For the weather for the next few days click here

Tuesday 30/12/14
Windier across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Any freezing fog clears. Another dry day across the country with lots of sunshine. Rain may reach northern Scotland and Northern Ireland in the night. Frosty across England and Wales with freezing fog patches in the south east. Maximum temperatures of 2 to 6C.

New Year's Eve 31/12/14
Windy and cloudier across Northern Ireland and western Scotland with patchy rain. Most of England and Wales looks to stay fair and dry with patches of freezing fog in the south east that may take time to clear. Rain becomes more persistent across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Cold and frosty in the south. Maximum temperatures of 3 to 7C.

New Year's Day 01/01/15
It's an increasingly windy day away from East Anglia and the south east with temperatures up a few degrees. Some rain may affect Scotland and Northern Ireland. Largely fair and dry across England and Wales with hazy sunshine but cloudier in the west. Gale may affect the north with gusts of 60mph across Scotland. Expect maximum temperatures of 3 to 8C.

Friday 02/01/15
Generally milder and rather windy. Confidence is low but a front may bring rain into northern and western parts of Britain, cloudier but dry elsewhere. It becomes colder across Scotland as the rain clears. That rain may affect England and Wales overnight with some snow over the Pennines. Snow showers to affect western Scotland. Expect maximum temperatures of 4 to 8C.

Saturday 03/01/15
Colder air sinks south as the winds switch to the north west. Rain across the south gradually clears away, perhaps briefly changing to wet snow as it does so. Much of the country looks breezy and cold but dry and sunny. Frosty overnight with snow showers for Scotland. Expect maximum temperatures of 2 to 4C.

Sunday 04/01/15
High pressure should give most parts of Britain a dry day with long sunny spells. A few scattered showers to affect western Scotland and northwest England, these wintry over the hills. Cold and frosty overnight. Expect maximum temperatures of 2 to 5C.

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MET Office update shows wintry showers for next weekend even to lower levels and then the extended outlook gives a potential (yes only potential) for a break from the pattern for colder drier conditions.
Martin

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Yes - A gimmer of hope during the latter stages of the month Martin - but looks like it will be a drier colder weather pattern like this as supposed to a cold easterly or wintry spell or blocking: But I (like many). will take this as a foot of salt because it was only last week the Met O were forecasting for a colder spell to deveop from beginning of January. - Time will tell.

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Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Friday 2 Jan 2015 to Sunday 11 Jan 2015:

Cloud and rain, heavy at times, is expected to quickly clear southeastwards on Friday, allowing clearer but colder and showery conditions to spread from the northwest across the UK for the rest of Friday onwards into next weekend. Showers are then likely to be wintry over higher ground on Friday before perhaps turning wintry to some lower levels at the weekend. Milder, cloudier conditions with spells of rain are then likely to return eastwards across Britain later next weekend. This heralds a changeable spell of weather for the first part of January. Conditions then windy at times and characterised by periods of milder, cloudier weather with spells of rain interspersed with clearer or brighter but colder, showery interludes with frosty nights and wintry showers on hills.

UK Outlook for Monday 12 Jan 2015 to Monday 26 Jan 2015:

The most likely scenario is for the unsettled, and at times windy, conditions affecting the UK during the first full week of January to then persist through much or all of this period. This scenario would see periods of dull weather with rain interspersed by colder, clearer showery spells with frosty nights and leave western parts with the wettest weather and southeastern Britain seeing the best of any dry weather. Whilst this is considered the most likely chain of events, there is a small chance that later in January conditions could become drier and more settled with colder conditions.

Updated at: 0236 on Sun 28 Dec 2014

 

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The MET office never quite forecast a cold dry spell, they did however forecast the possible low chance/ option of a colder spell, but looking back they always had the Atlantic as the preferred option and never reversed it to say it would be cold with lower chances of a milder option. So they have been spot on so far this winter.😊
Martin

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Not strictly true. At the height of the impending colder weather the extended range forecasts for a few days pre-Christmas used below average as the headline with 'there may be milder interludes at times in the south'.
I'm not criticising of course, as they do change to fit the models and did so quite quickly once the sinking high was the favoured option.

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We ,au be talking about different things☺️ I am talking about the 16-30 days updates rather than others. This long distance view provided is right to give us a taster of what they see, but has been worded clearly.
I have just checked back through them in this thread and the colder spell was never more than a low risk and not preferred. The highest chance they gave was this I think:
"The end of December is likely to stay changeable and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest. This will bring cloudy periods with spells of rain, interspersed with clearer and transient cold interludes. These could include wintry showers, mainly in the north. The more unsettled conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with the best of the sunshine in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to vary day by day, but tending to average out to be around, or just below normal. This is the most likely scenario throughout the period until mid January, however there is the risk that a more prolonged cold spell could develop from early January.

Updated at: 1507 on Sat 13 Dec 2014"

The other shorter timescales have also been pretty good and they got our snow right here at low level.
Martin

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Sounds like the effect of a split vortex and a hld to our north or East, would love to see some of the charts the met office can see longer ranger I bet they would cheers some people up!

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You must have missed the update before Christmas which indicated 'no clear signal' yet continued to mention a cold outbreak as a valid & realistic option into January.

The 30 day written paragraphs flip flopped all over the place for a good few days.

Yes, that is what I am saying. There was never a forecast from the MET office that gave a firm prediction on cold. The colder option was always an outlier, with mild the preferred option😊
Martin

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