Yes, caching problems - post deleted! 

Looks like quite a vicious low bringing cold weather down the country ahead of tthe Monday return to work. Could be some serious snowfall in the north from that sort of set-up, even maybe temporary accumulations further south.

Interesting indeed:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121912/gfs-0-204.png?12

That is one hell of a violent storm, heavy rain and gales replaced by blizzards - you can see why the Met are concerned.

A variant on the same sequence of events from GFSP. All of a sudden the runs are being consistent with this scenario where two shortwaves combine and the low west of the Azores is in the right place to support a strong ridge toward Greenland, this being what steers the jet down into Europe (though rather typically the GFS did still manage to find more momentum west to east than north to south).

That sure looks much more worthy or being described as a "weather bomb" than the system that passed to the north of Scotland last midweek that the press got into such a frenzy over!

It may be very uncertain but at least the output isn't boring! I'd expect a few more twists and turn in coming days. The signal is there for some potentially very unsettled and maybe even rather wintry weather for a few days at least. It could be Christmas Day before there is any real certainty about what is heading our way.

Really wouldnt surprise me if we saw a secondary low a few days later... perhaps even a repeat performance.  We saw that alot last year.

One being forecasted out to the atlantic.  

I betting you wrote your name in the snow...

Coastal flooding followed by a rapid freeze - recipe for some *interesting* conditions

Blimey, must have been desperate if he wrote 'The Beast from the East' !!

Comparing the 06z and 12z GFS and GFSP runs with the ECM 12z run of yesterday and 00z of today, the key difference looks to be the 'breakaway' low from the large feature west of the Azores, taking place days 6-7.

The ECM 00z didn't have this feature, and this meant that the angle of the jet was kept more SW-NE days 7-8, with a change to NW-SE, which does less to reduce the Euro High influence, keeping the jet further north. A low finally turned up from the SW on day 9 but by then the cold and snow potential was starting to fade a bit.

The breakaway low is present on the UKMO 12z op run day 6 chart which is good to see, but with realising the potential seemingly coming down to favourable behaviour of not one, but two shortwaves feels like trying to throw two darts at a board and score a bulls-eye with both!.

Alright maybe that's a bit tight - there's some wiggle room in terms of timing, as the GFS 06z and 12z op runs show nicely.

Bugger this is the MOD thread.

High Tides heights dont seem to be too severe, but caught at the Right time, could cause issues.  Last year there was some exceptionally high tides combining with the storm surge, so it literally was a 1-100 yr event, as those tides dont happen that often.  Mothernature just felt like being a b!tch last year. 

the real cold hasn't been signalled until then as far as I am concerned just a nice festive feel for the big day itself apart from a very select few that may see a little white stuff but even then not a lot.

Im meant to be driving from Edinburgh to Bristol that day 

Seriously though that's a real nasty storm with Snow, Gales and a likely storm surge - the UKMO ejects the same s/wave out oof the low at T+144 so wouldnt be too dissimilar if it went with the same explosive cyclogenesis idea

I can't get the full run on wetterzentrale at the moment Liam, although that said it was starting to trickle out slowly when I last checked a few minutes ago.

I wrote "The Express said it would be mild"

Yes there are still upstream problems with the server we download the GFS data from. Should become available later this evening. 

ECM is a bit different. It pulls in a brief northerly on Xmas Day before HP falls over the UK.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014121912/ECM1-144.GIF?19-0

Not sure whether the storm will spin up later as per GFS. Edit -nope, the Euroslug spoiler is in full effect.