Codge would like your post's 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2014122312/graphe3_1000_291_92___.gif

GEFS still look average though, normal Uk winter borefest  

For those of us in the NW little to get excited about really apart from some frosty nights, it's all a bit underwhelming considering what could have been.

Over on NW the comedians are out , forecasting 15cm in hillier regions lol 

Now those are my kind of comedians.............

I think were talking closer to 15mm at best, (if at all), from today's ECM.  At least it would be a start.

The London snowrow based on the GEFS isn't looking too inspiring this evening. Would be interesting to see how it compares to the Euro50.

Sounds like my maximum snow depth from "Winter" 13/14

But that's what the 120 ECM shows, best chart this winter in the mid term for snow in the east.

But not worth taking much notice of yet chance's are it wont be showing that in the morning

That said, the ECM 12z was fairly consistent with what it showed this morning, from what I can see. It certainly doesn't appear to want to shove the High out into the continent like the GFS seems to be doing.

I think the temperature profile is pretty marginal and by the time the cold air digs in the moisture has usually exited 'stage left'

But hey, these are cold charts and THAT is a big step forwards. 

Some of the GFS ENS are still toying with the idea of a Scandy high. Just to use a bit of reverse logic, as often as solid concensus exists for a strong easterly that gets eroded with time, perhaps this time there's a tentative signal here that will strengthen with time.

If it's the jet profile that is scuppering HLB, remember the jet profile is modelled as good and as bad as any other parameter.

A crucial difference at just 72 hours separates the GFSP (left), GFS, GEM and JMA evolutions from the UKMO (right), ECM and GME evolutions.

The chain of LP extending SW from Scotland on that GFSP chart reflects a slightly stronger section of jet in that area (this can be confirmed by comparing the GME +72 hour jet stream chart with the GFSP and GEM ones, not shown here).

This seems to result in the SW-NE jet dominating proceedings during the initial development of the low prior to a separate jet from the NW taking over and causing the low to sink south (except in the case of GFS which just seems to ignore the new orientation of the jet). This throws some Atlantic air to our east, which then mixes with the continental cold before being drawn back west to the UK as the low heads for Europe. The result is that we don't see a true 'continental undercut' and this looks insufficient for snowfall on the GFSP run - which is the coldest outcome of the set.

The other set has a weaker jet to the SW at +72 hours, which seems to hand over control to the jet coming down from the NW more quickly. ECM shows how this can send the low diving south with nothing escaping to our east at all, with a proper continental undercut producing a brief window for some snow.

...but this is not the full story. There is a further divide within this group, as UKMO and GME both show the shortwaves flying right past one another without phasing. This leaves the shortwave from the SW flying off to the NE as a very small feature which barely has any impact on the continental air mass, while the one from the NW dives on a trajectory somewhere between S and SE.

It's the division at +72 that seems to be far more important as far as the weekend easterly is concerned... crazy to have such a key difference at just 3 days range! It's so small as well, a great example of the so-called 'butterfly effect' in action.

Beyond that, we then have the angle of the jet out of the U.S. having massive impacts on what happens to our high pressure days 5-6... that's something to think more about tomorrow I should think - surely the strength of the jet to the SW on Friday will have been resolved by then?!

Italicised below is Ferguson on NW:

We didn't have 12z UKMO-GM available for graphics however. Yes, some light snow around in places by Sunday in parts of S/SE (mostly uplands...snow more up northern England into Scotland on N/NW flank of low earlier in sequence) but anything in south not considered a big issue there as PPN rates will be rapidly fading by that stage (mostly dry/drying), coincidentally as the lower WBFL spreads south. Cold 'un though, for sure! MOGREPS 12z has 3-way split on low positioning / track but as per yesterday, SE'ly version remains most favoured for deterministic forecasting, with confidence growing now.

 fits with my thoughts from earlier.  Good news for northern snow fans.

Good analysis this evening.
Meanwhile, in Mississippi, we have a tornado watch!
Two chasers doing some pre-Christmas streaming now: https://tvnweather.com/live

Sorry mods, way off topic. 

Seems about right - might catch a little flurry as the precip dies off down here but other than that chilly but dry

Will be interesting which of the models are getting the best hang of the current patterns - disagreement in the short term usually favours an ECM solution, or a blend, although not always.

If the Euros are leading the way I'll be watching for slight creeps North with the HP and a tendency for the block to stay put rather than sink SE'wards. The latter is the form horse but IRRC a similar situation happened a couple of years ago when the jet was smashing over the top of the block which stayed put - cold made it to the UK but not too cold, whilst Europe froze. 

Well, well, after running with the same solution for a while, now GFS decided to join the party with the southerly-tracking low on Saturday  - enough to make me think "Ooo, something's happening here" - and for once doesn't involve stormy southerly gales.

I'm sure it'll all look different in the next run tomorrow morning.

Haha....Finally, GFS has been dragged kicking and screaming into line with UKMO and ECM bringing a spell of wet and windy weather following by a rather cold north easterly.

Still nothing much in the way of the white stuff, but perhaps further down the line, this could become a good trend.

UK High to follow (as per ECM/UKMO) then a possible easterly in the new year.

Perhaps kicking and screaming is a bit harsh. I think it thought it might sneak into line without too many people noticing

GFS P - the better model -goes for a wintry picture early on 28th!

The difference between the 12z 126hr chart and the 18z 120hr chart (ie the same time), is immense.

The Scandi trough on the 18z drops towards the Med, allowing the building UK high to show ridging towards Scandy.

Could this be setting up our first classic pub run of the year?

I was just about to say we haven't seen any proper Stella pub runs this winter yet. Could this be the first?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.gif

Massive differences. High ridging into Scandinavia and the trough dropping down towards Italy and the Med.

Almost the holy grail as Gavin P has described a few times.

Will be gone in the morning, but just proves that all is to play for. So much better watching than last winter.

Almost a proper Scandi high developing here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.gif

Wow. Just wow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1442.gif

-10 uppers knocking on the door and a proper Scandi high.

Finally the 18z produces a "pub run".

Probably missing data due to Christmas?

Where the hell are my Oxfordshire mates Gooner and SnowedIn on a night like this with a classic pub run? They're missing all the fun.