So 2014 is likely to be a record warm year for the CET area as well as most parts of the UK. We did have one person predict 11C in last year's competition although we fell just short of this mark. What will 2015 bring? Another very warm year or something cooler?
Here is a new thread for your CET predictions for 2015. Remeber there are several CET competitions that run during the year. This thread is just for making a prediction as to what you think the CET will be for 2015 as a whole.
A separate thread is opened each month for predictions for the CET in the month ahead. The monthly thread also features a different annual competition to see who has the most accurate monthly predictions on a cumulative basis throughout the year. This is updated every month.
For the annual CET competition covered by this thread you need to predict what you think the mean Central England Temperature (CET) will be for 2015. The CET series is maintained by the Met Office Hadley centre and their official statistics will be used to determine the result of the competition. The figures can be found at the following link http://www.metoffice.gov...adcet/cet_info_mean.html
The data is updated with provisional figures daily and adjusted figures for the month are usually published on the 1st day of the following month. You will often hear us refer to the "Hadley" data when talking about the CET. This because there are other versions of the CET but we currently use the Hadley data for our competitions.
More details on what constitutes the CET area and links to more detailed articles can be found here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/
To enter the competition in this thread all you need to do is post your prediction of the mean temperature in the CET area for 2015 in Celsuis. There are two important points to note:
- your prediction should be to two decimal places; and
- your prediction needs to be unique so we have no more than one winner at the end of the year (so first come first served on any particular figure).
Any entry that is not unique and is not adjusted will be amended by me to the nearest available figure (either up or down).
Entries close at 23:59 on 4th January
To assist you with your prediction the chart below shows the CET each year since 1961 (dark green line), the average for 1971-2000 (blue line), average for 1981-2010 (light green line) and a 10 year moving average (light blue line).
Four of the last six years have seen the CET at or below 10.1C (four years below 10C and 1 below 9C). Only 2011 and 2014 saw very warm years with 10.7C and 10.9C respectively. 2014 of course is a record year in the more than 350 year CET series. Will 2015 be another warm year or will be see a return to cooler conditions?
Also worth noting that 22 of the last 24 months have seen the CET mean more than 0.5C above or below the 1971-2000 average (14 warmer than average and 8 below). There have been very few average months.