GFSP 18z showing a more sober picture than the GFS

One has to be careful with ECM in particular with respect the chart intervals, as detail is often lost on the basic meteociel charts that falls between the chart times

The GFSP 18z is strangely consistent with the 12z in terms of both the mid-month super-storm and the general pattern evolution thereafter - the first attempt to set up a blocking high falls, but background drivers push the next Atlantic trough quickly over to Scandinavia with high latitude blocking starting to materialise at the same time.

A good fit with the increasingly Pacific-centered MJO and other changes taking place on the other side of the hemisphere from us (for those familiar with the terms, how does a switch to positive AAM tendency, with positive frictional and then mountain torque events sound? Totally different to what's been going on these past few months).

The GFS 18z is also consistent with it's previous output to day 8, including having the storm that GFSP hammers us with develop further west to bring something wild and wet but not nearly as devastating.

Beyond that, the jet happens to split rather nicely in the western North Atlantic, with a slide of low pressure underneath the developing mid-Atlantic ridge giving it the support needed to build to Greenland and stick around there for a few days before transferring to Scandinavia.

A nice evolution to see, but unless GEFS turn out not to be overcooking the MJO after all (not out of the question but I would be pleasantly surprised), I have cause to lean in favour of the slower development of a cold and snowy UK weather pattern offered by GFSP... though obviously I'll take the far more dramatic 12z GFSP over the 18z 

Most of the GEFS attempt to build pressure after the storm but then sink it. Some succeed on the second attempt. Perturbation 17 is the holy grail

A few showers near coasts, but otherwise dry.

I am more concerned at this stage putting detail on Friday's storm in Scotland as Ambers are virtually certain in lieu of 100mph gusts in the Islands and NW coastal areas.
We then have another, more distant low but more widespread severe gales.

Then we have the small matter of GFSP's Armageddon Low next week which will be moving into high-res by this time tomorrow. It has also appeared on finer interval ECM charts this evening.

The other feature in the short term could be record breaking temperatures. These wouldn't look too out of place in June.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

This mornings GFS op toys with a Scandi HP.Liitle support from GEFS and by 360 h 75% of ENS are mild zonal.

So still nothing that  convincingly contradicts the METO extended forecast.HP developments around 240h  still worth keeping an eye on.

Higher than 17.2°C?

It really is a rather unsettled outlook this morning and still with a cooling trend towards the second half of the month. The only real change is this morning, if there is one, is that it looks even more unsettled.

Thursday night's storm looks like a really nasty little feature.

GFS control run is the pick of the day

We still have the bomb

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015010700/gensnh-0-1-192.png

Then a northerly

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015010700/gensnh-0-1-240.png

And then ends with a pressure rise over Scandi

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015010700/gensnh-0-1-384.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015010700/gensnh-0-0-384.png

GEM also not too bad

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015010700/gemnh-0-240.png?00

The chance for a change in direction seems to be around the 17th

Only the control really flying the flag though, Beast?
I see the Armageddon Low has been moderated across the board this morning.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY JANUARY 7TH 2015.

NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY JANUARY 8TH 2015 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A strong and mild SW flow is developing across the UK as a cold front moves SE across the UK later today and more slowly across Southern England tonight.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable and often windy or even stormy and sometimes mild with rain at times. Some drier interludes likely too with slight frosts at night.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows a very strong Jet Stream being maintained across the UK or just to the North in the short to mid term before it steadily weakens later as the result of a weakening vortex to the North of the UK.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational continues to look very zonal, sometimes mild and wet, sometimes cooler and more showery but never particularly cold but nearly always very windy from a Westerly point. Later in the run though Low pressure slips SE down across the UK and on into Europe interrupting the zonal pattern with rain and strong winds giving way to colder and frostier weather for a time with some wintry showers possible before milder SW winds, first affecting the NW start their inevitable trek SE across the UK towards the final frames of the run.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel run is as yesterday more reluctant to show any meaningful rise of pressure from the West late in the run and while the run briefly weakens the zonal Westerly weather conditions late in the run changeable weather under a Westerly regime remain the favourite weather type likely two weeks from now though probably less windy at least at times.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run leans towards rather colder conditions later in Week 2 as this run shows a wet, windy and mobile period for all during Week 1 before a build of pressure filling a gap between Low pressure systems transforms the weatehr to a colder and more blocked pattern with frost developing by night with some wintry showers likely across Eastern parts as winds turn Easterly late in the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show little change in the theme of an Atlantic dominated pattern with the only slice of colder air delivered by a 15% group who think we could end up in a colder and polar maritime NW in 14 days time with deep Low pressure over Scandinavia

UKMO UKMO shows a strong and direct Westerly blast developing over the next 6 days with spells of mild and always very windy weather with rain alternating with colder and more showery weather, still with gales and wintry showers over the hills.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts shows a very volatile and active Atlantic flow as deep depressions cross quickly East between Scotland and Iceland with all areas seeing broad mild sectors with rain at times heaviest on Northern and Western hills  mixed with colder polar maritime Westerly winds, equally strong with showers, wintry on hills across the North.

GEM GEM today shows a continuation of the cyclonic pattern of weather over the UK with spells of strong winds and heavy rain alternating with colder periods with showers, wintry on hills. The Low pressure areas do show signs of digging deeper into the UK later sending colder uppers down over the South too at times heightening the risk of wintry showers on hills at times here too.

NAVGEM NAVGEM reflects no end to the Westerly flow either with often mild, wet and windy conditions holding sway over the UK with short and colder periods with showers in between.

ECM ECM this morning shows little consequential change to a well worn pattern of a strong Westerly flow being maintained across the UK. The variability in how this affects the UK day to day will continue to be common with rainy mild weather alternating with colder and brighter interludes with showers.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows a very slow shift East of the Low pressure belt to the North of the UK with time. As the central core of pressure slips more towards Scandinavia there will be a greater impact from the colder and more showery conditions behind cold fronts for Southern areas too later in the period probaly seeing snowfall down to modest levels in the North at times and hills more generally further South. This does look the only shift though in an otherwise still very unsettled and mobile pattern powered by High pressure to the SW and an over active Jet flow.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend this morning remains largely usettled and windy with spells of rain at times and short colder spells with showers. Yesterday's hints of more High pressure likely to be in the mix during Week 2 are still hinted at within the GFS pack but hold no cross model support as yet.

MY THOUGHTS Not a lot of change this morning I'm afraid with the Atlantic holding control of the weather across the UK the most likely option we end up being at still two weeks from now. GFS does offer an olive branch on the shape of a pattern change later through week 2 from both it's operational and control runs but in all honestly they look a little isolated in the grand scheme of things shown elsewhere. They achieve this change by sending Low pressure SE across the UK and SE Europe allowing pressure to build across the UK and Northern Europe later and dare I say it setting up an Easterly by Day 15 on the Control Run. However, that's where the story ends as all other outputs show a variation of a theme of very windy and turbulent weather with rain at times and severe gales or storm force winds especially over the North in the coming week with no doubt some structural damage and news worthy headlines. There is still opportunities for colder and showery weather to throw down the odd wintry fall here and there again between the storms largely in the North but all in all there will be little or no seriously cold and wintry weather on a Nationwide scale through the next two week's if this morning's output verifies and although the Jet stream is expected to decrease somewhat later in the period the axis and vortex will remain more or less in situ continuing the theme of Westerly winds and rain at times the most lilely place we find ourselves two weeks from now.

Thanks Martin and that in a nutshell is what we are seeing and have seen for quite some time.
Clusters and Mojos and Super Stratsoakers aside, there is no firm signal anywhere of anything remotely wintry nationwide that will rescue this January.

brave post! I didn't want to post this chart as it would have seemed provocative to some. Certainly worth mentioning though, I don't think the record January temp will be broken but perhaps a specific date or location record may fall?

The last of these is echoed by the arctic plunge over Russia in the FI time frame

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

but not only is it FI,  the cold air has still got to travel all the way across Europe before we feel it

Yes Brian but its going to be a shock a few hours later ecm mean 12 uppers then 12 hours later

Then 12 hours later

Also of intrest is the day 10 ecm mean  which at that time is quite cold for the mean, must be some cold members in the mix to get to that level at that time frame

Really? I just cant wait

Looking at the GEFs you can see we are in the same position we were in before xmas.  Cold / Mild / Cold / Mild

However with every pass of the cold air - it gets colder.  When we get into >17Jan I wouldnt be surprised if we start to see another smaller peak as another warm/cold front passes over.

This comes back to my feeling that it will be repeat performance we had over xmas ie -  HP asserts itself with Colder weather underneath.. but dry.

GEFS6z continue the theme.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Not sure if we'll get an all time January record, but we could get a date record (like on NYD) and it's worth keeping an eye on Friday night's minimum temperatures, which could be record breaking as well.